Official Potomac/Beltway Primary Discussion Thread (DEM)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

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Actually all these are VERY bad for Clinton.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

No.

Giuliani was stupid enough to wait through the two key momentum builders - Iowa and New Hampshire - then because of that made a half-arsed effort in MI - got obliterated in all three, then many voters realised that inevitable truth about a Giuliani candidacy - he was a one-trick pony, who was in many ways repellant to many primary voters. States wouldn't risk losing all influence if they didn't think being an early primary/caucus didn't matter. Momentum mattered - Giuliani sat on his hands and let McCain suck up his support.

If Clinton doesn't focus anywhere except OH and TX - then she's kidding herself. Obama has the lead in pledged delegates, he's got all the momentum and the money, she needs a win - just to steady the ship, if nothing else.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Isn't Clinton's "Wait 'til Texas and Ohio" strategy looking too much like Rudy Giuliani's "Wait 'til Florida" strategy?

No.

Giuliani was stupid enough to wait through the two key momentum builders - Iowa and New Hampshire - then because of that made a half-arsed effort in MI - got obliterated in all three, then many voters realised that inevitable truth about a Giuliani candidacy - he was a one-trick pony, who was in many ways repellant to many primary voters. States wouldn't risk losing all influence if they didn't think being an early primary/caucus didn't matter. Momentum mattered - Giuliani sat on his hands and let McCain suck up his support.

If Clinton doesn't focus anywhere except OH and TX - then she's kidding herself. Obama has the lead in pledged delegates, he's got all the momentum and the money, she needs a win - just to steady the ship, if nothing else.

She seems to be skipping right over Wisconsin.

I think that move could kill her campaign. She has to try for Wisconsin, it's an important symbolic state at the very least.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The GOP primary might end up being closer.

Well I want something interesting to happen tonight.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm looking here.

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2008/F88C865B-87AB-494E-8C2E-599FED2DF7C6/Unofficial/1_s.shtml

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama wins DC (MSNBC)

Get out!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/ reporting Mike Henry has quit Clinton campaign

Didn't see te story, and he's a total hack.

Top of the page, but, yeah, he's a hack. For Clinton.

Which of course is the bad kind of hack.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm looking at the exit polls for VA and MD - they are far worse for Clinton overall than just these victories for Obama.

Losing the white vote in VA, the AA vote doesn't exceed a 1/3 in either primary.

Clinton is losing ground EVERYWHERE.