Im going to say this right now. I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect. Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat. I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them. They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.
That's ridiculous times ten.
What part is ridiculous?
The whole thing. The Massachusetts Republican Party doesn't have the resources to run an overt campaign, let alone an under-the-radar campaign, which actually requires a lot more effort (though less money). The NRCC has completely written the seat off: all they could do would be to run ads or give Ogonowski money, and they're doing neither.
Ogonowski will knock on some doors in his hometown while Tsongas travels across the district shaking hands with everyone, and she'll win in a landslide. That's the way elections work in one-party states.
The best Ogonowski can hope for is to hold Tsongas under 60%.
