Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Zaybay]

I just got home (hate having party meetings on Tuesdays!).

Kemp's margin will fall as the metro core isn't really reporting even yet, but it'll definitely remain in the 60s. Wow - what an embarrassment (and how unfortunate for GA Dems)!

Also: the name "Brad Raffensperger". Learn it: he'll be on par with names like Kris Kobach, and will be the face of voter suppression in GA as it arises to swing state status if Barrow doesn't pull a Hail Mary (which he very well may!).

Also sad to see the 2 better Democratic candidates in GA-6 & GA-7 are losing their runoffs...

Yeah, true, I think Cagle would have been an easier GE opponent.

TBH, this is like comparing dog poop, to cat poop, there both equally bad. Both were C candidates, and they both still remain C candidates.

[Zaybay]

I just got home (hate having party meetings on Tuesdays!).

Kemp's margin will fall as the metro core isn't really reporting even yet, but it'll definitely remain in the 60s. Wow - what an embarrassment (and how unfortunate for GA Dems)!

Also: the name "Brad Raffensperger". Learn it: he'll be on par with names like Kris Kobach, and will be the face of voter suppression in GA as it arises to swing state status if Barrow doesn't pull a Hail Mary (which he very well may!).

Also sad to see the 2 better Democratic candidates in GA-6 & GA-7 are losing their runoffs...

Yeah, true, I think Cagle would have been an easier GE opponent.

TBH, this is like comparing dog poop, to cat poop, there both equally bad. Both were C candidates, and they both still remain C candidates.

Cat poop that can probably do a better job of turning out the rural vote, though.

and lose the suburban vote and possibly make a giant goof.

Thats the problem, each candidate has their own weaknesses, so it really depends on how you see them.

Cagle had establishment support, a ""moderate"" persona, and support from the Suburbs. But he was boring, corrupt, and had many scandals around him.

Kemp has grassroots support, a ""Conservative"" persona, and support from the rurals. in droves. But he is gaffe-prone, has scandals(voter rolls), and rather controversial for the suburbs.

So, it really depends.

[Zaybay]

Cagle's margins everywhere are disappointing. He barely has any counties, not even Dekalb and the suburbs voted for him. I didnt know GA would be so mad about the scandals.

[Zaybay]

Abrams needs the primary vote, with some suburbanites going to her. That would give her the win.

[Zaybay]

It wouldn't surprise me if Abrams won Gwinnett and Cobb. But that's not enough, as we saw with Hillary.

She'll be winning those while also turning out black voters downstate. The main PAC planning to flood the state with resources are exclusively focusing on turning out black voters in places in and around Macon, Columbus, Albany, Americus, Valdosta, and Savannah.

ETA: And Augusta and the band of rural majority black counties near it.

I'm skeptical that the votes are there (in those locations, specifically). Basically, Abrams needs everything to go in her favor (i.e. pull Clinton '16 margins in Georgia counties that swung to Clinton, and Obama '12 margins in the rest) - and then will still need an additional 70k votes on top of that to secure a majority (using the 2014 total turnout as a baseline here).

There are really only a few counties south of the metro where there is any meaningful population. The Fall Line/Black Belt (outside of Muscogee, Houston/Bibb, and Columbia/Richmond) is pretty empty. The space directly due north and south of that is as well. Of course the southern interior is empty and very hostile as well. There's the coast, of course (where I think some gains can be made)...but even if the votes can be mined out of those areas, it might only be enough to make up the difference between Carter/Nunn '14 and Obama '12 - meaning she would still need the 70k votes from elsewhere.

Sooner or later, I will be wrong - such the evolution of GA's urbanization and population growth - but I still don't believe that a Democrat can win statewide yet without true investment across the entire state (yes, that means on-the-ground activity in hostile North GA as well, which has taken almost an entire vote away for every vote gained statewide over the past 10 years).

A good example is to look at what Obama and Clinton did in NC and VA, which are comparably-sized: they had 30-50 offices across the entire state and sunk in tens of millions of dollars, along with hundreds of full-time staff. F[inks]ing Galax, VA (population 7,000) had a full-time field office that I passed by on the way to the DNC convention! Until we see that kind of activity (which doesn't exist in GA yet; field offices opening in Dahlonega, Gainesville, Rome, Dalton, Jesup, Thomasville, etc), I'm unfortunately very skeptical.

I'm not trying to rain on the parade. I'm just frustrated as an active Democrat in a part of the state that gets neglected - despite it playing a huge role in why the state shifted to the GOP in the first place - and it's very difficult to work with minimal to no resources at the local level. Despite the fact that whites are more Democratic in this part of the state (at least averaged over the past decade) than anywhere else but the urban areas and there's huge Latino growth, it's written off as Red Hell when gains could be made that would significantly weaken GOP margins. I understand part of it is because Dems don't know how to campaign outside core areas anymore and another part is the lack of resources, but alas.

Thats been whats occurring in the special elections around the country so far, so I would expect this to hold true.

[Zaybay]

Thats been whats occurring in the special elections around the country so far, so I would expect this to hold true.

Perhaps so, but as I've said before, GA has been bucking the trend this cycle in some ways. Nevertheless, a couple of the aforementioned urban areas (specifically Columbus, Macon and Augusta) have very naturally weak turnout and performance, which I think makes it harder to maximize vote share there than in other areas. If you look at Obama's performance and compare that to midterms - or compare the counties' populations and votes to similarly-sized counties - it's pretty abysmal.

Of course, it's even tougher to work, canvass and organize in rural areas with less population density...but in GA, I truly think it's going to take an effort encompassing all of that across the entire state to break through in the next cycle or two.

Off elections have had that problem, but in November, the Ds have had a normal overperformance.

[Zaybay]

It wouldn't surprise me if Abrams won Gwinnett and Cobb. But that's not enough, as we saw with Hillary.

She'll be winning those while also turning out black voters downstate. The main PAC planning to flood the state with resources are exclusively focusing on turning out black voters in places in and around Macon, Columbus, Albany, Americus, Valdosta, and Savannah.

ETA: And Augusta and the band of rural majority black counties near it.

I'm skeptical that the votes are there (in those locations, specifically). Basically, Abrams needs everything to go in her favor (i.e. pull Clinton '16 margins in Georgia counties that swung to Clinton, and Obama '12 margins in the rest) - and then will still need an additional 70k votes on top of that to secure a majority (using the 2014 total turnout as a baseline here).

There are really only a few counties south of the metro where there is any meaningful population. The Fall Line/Black Belt (outside of Muscogee, Houston/Bibb, and Columbia/Richmond) is pretty empty. The space directly due north and south of that is as well. Of course the southern interior is empty and very hostile as well. There's the coast, of course (where I think some gains can be made)...but even if the votes can be mined out of those areas, it might only be enough to make up the difference between Carter/Nunn '14 and Obama '12 - meaning she would still need the 70k votes from elsewhere.

Sooner or later, I will be wrong - such the evolution of GA's urbanization and population growth - but I still don't believe that a Democrat can win statewide yet without true investment across the entire state (yes, that means on-the-ground activity in hostile North GA as well, which has taken almost an entire vote away for every vote gained statewide over the past 10 years).

A good example is to look at what Obama and Clinton did in NC and VA, which are comparably-sized: they had 30-50 offices across the entire state and sunk in tens of millions of dollars, along with hundreds of full-time staff. F[inks]ing Galax, VA (population 7,000) had a full-time field office that I passed by on the way to the DNC convention! By contrast, Georgia usually has 10 (opened by the DPG, with candidates who actually have resources basing themselves in the exact same areas). Until we see that kind of activity (which doesn't exist in GA yet; field offices opening in Dahlonega, Gainesville, Rome, Dalton, Jesup, Thomasville, etc), I'm unfortunately very skeptical.

I'm not trying to rain on the parade. I'm just frustrated as an active Democrat in a part of the state that gets neglected - despite it playing a huge role in why the state shifted to the GOP in the first place - and it's very difficult to work with minimal to no resources at the local level. Despite the fact that whites are more Democratic in this part of the state (at least averaged over the past decade) than anywhere else but the urban areas and there's huge Latino growth, it's written off as Red Hell when gains could be made that would significantly weaken GOP margins. I understand part of it is because Dems don't know how to campaign outside core areas anymore and another part is the lack of resources, but alas.

I understand your frustration. That's why I cooled off on Stacey Evans because I felt she would get lazy down the stretch and take certain areas for granted or throw in the towel on other areas. I believe Abrams will work for every vote she can from Dalton to Brunswick and everywhere in between. I certainly hope to see the DPG launch a massive field operation over the next few weeks. We have a huge hill to climb!

It does seem that Abrams' plan is a massive GOTV operation. So for you Prez Griff, she should invest some money in the area.

[Zaybay]

With tonight's primary results Kemp effectively becomes the next Georgia governor.

Not true, but whatever.

[Zaybay]

With tonight's primary results Kemp effectively becomes the next Georgia governor.

Not true, but whatever.

People here love ignoring the fact that you need 50%+1 in Georgia to avoid a runoff--something Dems can't do because their voters have a habit of getting overconfident, deciding they won already, and feeling their one or two votes not showing up won't matter.

....I really doubt thats the reason GA Dems keep losing.

[Zaybay]

If anyone can reach out to the rurals, it would be her. Still think Kemp has this, but Abrams will give it all she got. I see this more of a toss-up than the Ohio/Wisconsin races (which are clearly Likely R, if not Solid R, right now). Rooting big for Abrams to turn the tide and end the GOP hegemony here.

In what universe are Ohio and Wisconsin likely/solid R?  You just aren't speaking sense.

Keep in mind that this is coming from the guy who thought Trump would get a "cave bump" from the rescue of the students in Thailand.

Ah, I see, so he's either a troll, or has no earthly idea what he's talking about.

Hes a troll. Dont bother with him.

[Zaybay]

LMAO that "SHADY DAVID SHAFER" meme really worked:

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Geoff Duncan   278,750   50.1%   
David Shafer   277,110   49.9   

I HATE David Shafer! This warms my heart.

Has this race been moved from Likely to Lean Republican yet?

Why? I'm just curious.. Don't know much about either..

Slimy and corrupt, had his friends make some accusations of sexual harassing a lobbyist "go away" right before the election, and thought he was owed the seat. It's obnoxious when any politician thinks they deserve a seat due to whatever crap he or she has carried out for businesses and other politicians.

The first Abrams and Kemp attacks are in. I saw the Abrams commercial a couple of times this morning getting ready for work.

That quick? wow.

Abrams ad 7/10. Very good, but not great. The ad uses Kemp's own ads against him,which is genious, and some of those still shots are hilarious. But the ad fails to really grab viewer, and the news cycle at the beginning would have been better suited at the end.

Kemp ad 3/10 Its a typical scary ad, and poor at that. The focus on Hillary is actually bad considering this is one of the few states that trended D when the whole nation trended R. They seem to not use anything else other than she is a Radical D who will raise taxes, and is funded by Nancy Pelosi, like I havent heard that before. Not creative, and rather poor.(of course this ad was made by the RNC.)

[Zaybay]

LMAO that "SHADY DAVID SHAFER" meme really worked:

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Geoff Duncan   278,750   50.1%   
David Shafer   277,110   49.9   

I HATE David Shafer! This warms my heart.

Has this race been moved from Likely to Lean Republican yet?

Why? I'm just curious.. Don't know much about either..

Slimy and corrupt, had his friends make some accusations of sexual harassing a lobbyist "go away" right before the election, and thought he was owed the seat. It's obnoxious when any politician thinks they deserve a seat due to whatever crap he or she has carried out for businesses and other politicians.

The first Abrams and Kemp attacks are in. I saw the Abrams commercial a couple of times this morning getting ready for work.

That quick? wow.

Abrams ad 7/10. Very good, but not great. The ad uses Kemp's own ads against him,which is genious, and some of those still shots are hilarious. But the ad fails to really grab viewer, and the news cycle at the beginning would have been better suited at the end.

Kemp ad 3/10 Its a typical scary ad, and poor at that. The focus on Hillary is actually bad considering this is one of the few states that trended D when the whole nation trended R. They seem to not use anything else other than she is a Radical D who will raise taxes, and is funded by Nancy Pelosi, like I havent heard that before. Not creative, and rather poor.(of course this ad was made by the RNC.)

Just as a 1 time ad... The attack ad on Abrams was much better.  But, longer term- the simple "she's too liberal b/c Clinton & Pelosi support her" will go nowhere compared to "Kemp is so crazy that he could keep companies from moving to Georgia & may ruin any progress we plan to achieve in Georgia's Economy."

Thats what I was thinking when rating. Both ads are not that good, dont get me wrong, but Abrams has more appeal to the people she needs, and has better replay value, and as I said, some of those still shots are great.

Kemp's is good, but is overplayed, and I can see in a state with two competitive races that stuff like this is going to be thrown out a lot. It runs tiresome, and seems like a stock ad that the GOP would use.

Its a good ad, but its soo similar to many other ads. The truck ad Kemp did popped. You would remember it, and The D ad uses this remembrance by taking pieces of it and making Kemp look crazy. The GOP ad, is your typical scary ad, and those blend in rather easily.

Thats why I think the D ad was superior, but they are both average.

[Zaybay]

LMAO that "SHADY DAVID SHAFER" meme really worked:

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Geoff Duncan   278,750   50.1%   
David Shafer   277,110   49.9   

I HATE David Shafer! This warms my heart.

Has this race been moved from Likely to Lean Republican yet?

Why? I'm just curious.. Don't know much about either..

Slimy and corrupt, had his friends make some accusations of sexual harassing a lobbyist "go away" right before the election, and thought he was owed the seat. It's obnoxious when any politician thinks they deserve a seat due to whatever crap he or she has carried out for businesses and other politicians.

The first Abrams and Kemp attacks are in. I saw the Abrams commercial a couple of times this morning getting ready for work.

That quick? wow.

Abrams ad 7/10. Very good, but not great. The ad uses Kemp's own ads against him,which is genious, and some of those still shots are hilarious. But the ad fails to really grab viewer, and the news cycle at the beginning would have been better suited at the end.

Kemp ad 3/10 Its a typical scary ad, and poor at that. The focus on Hillary is actually bad considering this is one of the few states that trended D when the whole nation trended R. They seem to not use anything else other than she is a Radical D who will raise taxes, and is funded by Nancy Pelosi, like I havent heard that before. Not creative, and rather poor.(of course this ad was made by the RNC.)

Just as a 1 time ad... The attack ad on Abrams was much better.  But, longer term- the simple "she's too liberal b/c Clinton & Pelosi support her" will go nowhere compared to "Kemp is so crazy that he could keep companies from moving to Georgia & may ruin any progress we plan to achieve in Georgia's Economy."

Thats what I was thinking when rating. Both ads are not that good, dont get me wrong, but Abrams has more appeal to the people she needs, and has better replay value, and as I said, some of those still shots are great.

Kemp's is good, but is overplayed, and I can see in a state with two competitive races that stuff like this is going to be thrown out a lot. It runs tiresome, and seems like a stock ad that the GOP would use.

Its a good ad, but its soo similar to many other ads. The truck ad Kemp did popped. You would remember it, and The D ad uses this remembrance by taking pieces of it and making Kemp look crazy. The GOP ad, is your typical scary ad, and those blend in rather easily.

Thats why I think the D ad was superior, but they are both average.

I could see a lot of Republican's across the country falling into a similar trap that Dem's fell into with Trump...

Republican's will focus so much on "Tying the candidate to Hillary & Pelosi" (Similar to Dems only focusing on "Trump is a horrible person") ... that they (R's) will end up being totally disconnected from real issues like an economic message... thus allowing Dems to hone in on a more substantive message that ends up winning over independents.

Its not a could, its a have. They did the same thing in PA-18.

[Zaybay]

LMAO that "SHADY DAVID SHAFER" meme really worked:

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Geoff Duncan   278,750   50.1%   
David Shafer   277,110   49.9   

I HATE David Shafer! This warms my heart.

Has this race been moved from Likely to Lean Republican yet?

Why? I'm just curious.. Don't know much about either..

Slimy and corrupt, had his friends make some accusations of sexual harassing a lobbyist "go away" right before the election, and thought he was owed the seat. It's obnoxious when any politician thinks they deserve a seat due to whatever crap he or she has carried out for businesses and other politicians.

The first Abrams and Kemp attacks are in. I saw the Abrams commercial a couple of times this morning getting ready for work.

That quick? wow.

Abrams ad 7/10. Very good, but not great. The ad uses Kemp's own ads against him,which is genious, and some of those still shots are hilarious. But the ad fails to really grab viewer, and the news cycle at the beginning would have been better suited at the end.

Kemp ad 3/10 Its a typical scary ad, and poor at that. The focus on Hillary is actually bad considering this is one of the few states that trended D when the whole nation trended R. They seem to not use anything else other than she is a Radical D who will raise taxes, and is funded by Nancy Pelosi, like I havent heard that before. Not creative, and rather poor.(of course this ad was made by the RNC.)

Just as a 1 time ad... The attack ad on Abrams was much better.  But, longer term- the simple "she's too liberal b/c Clinton & Pelosi support her" will go nowhere compared to "Kemp is so crazy that he could keep companies from moving to Georgia & may ruin any progress we plan to achieve in Georgia's Economy."

Thats what I was thinking when rating. Both ads are not that good, dont get me wrong, but Abrams has more appeal to the people she needs, and has better replay value, and as I said, some of those still shots are great.

Kemp's is good, but is overplayed, and I can see in a state with two competitive races that stuff like this is going to be thrown out a lot. It runs tiresome, and seems like a stock ad that the GOP would use.

Its a good ad, but its soo similar to many other ads. The truck ad Kemp did popped. You would remember it, and The D ad uses this remembrance by taking pieces of it and making Kemp look crazy. The GOP ad, is your typical scary ad, and those blend in rather easily.

Thats why I think the D ad was superior, but they are both average.

I could see a lot of Republican's across the country falling into a similar trap that Dem's fell into with Trump...

Republican's will focus so much on "Tying the candidate to Hillary & Pelosi" (Similar to Dems only focusing on "Trump is a horrible person") ... that they (R's) will end up being totally disconnected from real issues like an economic message... thus allowing Dems to hone in on a more substantive message that ends up winning over independents.

Its not a could, its a have. They did the same thing in PA-18.

Counterpoint: This also happened in GA-06 and Handel still pulled through despite that.

Correlation \=\ Causation.

The GOP tried this in many other districts, and most moved heavily to the Dems, I think GA is the exception in this case.

[Zaybay]

I just watched the video of the event her campaign posted (because I'm weird and can't get enough of her). I absolutely LOVED her response to the lady's question about Stone Mountain. She explains the historical context of Confederate monuments and refuses to backtrack or back down (and then redirected focus back to REAL issues). I know Kemp is going to bring it up at a debate and she is going to eviscerate him.

I loved how she got the loudest applause when she mentioned expanding Medicaid. When I canvass for her that's what gets the most passionate response.

Could I have the timestamp for that?

[Zaybay]

Thoughts on this attack ad?

https://youtu.be/nudqsQHN4q4

And Abrams’s response?

https://youtu.be/OSCgaMEhfzc

The ad from the RGA is rather poor, the Christmas analogy loses its luster as its the middle of Summer. I dont like that Abrams immediately went defensive, but she was able to really spin it well into a debate on healthcare, which was excellent. Thats my thoughts anyway.

[Zaybay]

Another PAC will be down here in Georgia for Ms. Abrams

https://twitter.com/feliciasonmez/status/1029035503566368768

https://twitter.com/BlkEconAlliance/status/1029051241287086080

Alright, I understand Ben Jealous, I understand Richard Cordray, I understand Stacey Abrams, but what the hell is Tim Kaine doing on that list? He doesnt need the money.

Also, its good to see that Jealous will be getting some financial support, I was afraid everyone would leave a winnable race dry of funding.

[Zaybay]

^ Yeah, this is in the article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He’ll probably get some mailers during the last weeks of the election. Paid canvassers, television ads, and phonebankers will almost certainly be dispatched to the other three.

One of the other 3 is Tim Kaine, I doubt hes getting help. So its more like two candidates, Jealous, and the guy who shouldnt even be on the list.So, if the group raises 5 million, then its likely that 1 million will be dispatched to Jealous, around 1/5, which is an incredible help, considering his problem is name rec and getting his base out to vote.

Its not like the race is solid R.

[Zaybay]

^ Yeah, this is in the article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He’ll probably get some mailers during the last weeks of the election. Paid canvassers, television ads, and phonebankers will almost certainly be dispatched to the other three.

One of the other 3 is Tim Kaine, I doubt hes getting help. So its more like two candidates, Jealous, and the guy who shouldnt even be on the list.So, if the group raises 5 million, then its likely that 1 million will be dispatched to Jealous, around 1/5, which is an incredible help, considering his problem is name rec and getting his base out to vote.

Its not like the race is solid R.

I was talking about Tim Kaine in my post not Jealous.

Oh, whoops, sorry about that. Anyway, I feel this could really help these races, and could be pivotal, especially since they specifically target AAs.

[Zaybay]

Bunch of new organizers joined the team today. At this point in the campaign four years ago, the field organizing staff was 70 percent Georgia residents/30 out-state residents this year it is 70/30 but in the complete reverse. The staff is already about double what it was when Carter ran with more joining next month.

Thats excellent to hear! This race could definitely be a pickup.

[Zaybay]

Forgive my ignorance; but is Abrams virtually dead on arrival if it’s a run off? I can see a very cruel scenario where she’d beat Kemp but not reach 50%.

I think that is the general assumption, but given how insanely enthusiastic the left is and how much they have been over-performing in special elections, I'm not convinced a runoff would doom her.

I think the same thing. It could either be a blowout for the R, or Abrams can win modestly. We dont really have any info on which could occur.