2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Zaybay]

The Weekly standard has a polling model for the senate that has the Senate going 50-50 with Heidi as the only dem not favored to win

Those morons also give Nelson an 84% chance of winning which is nuts, so I don't buy their thing.

No thats pretty sound. Its just taking the GCB, state lean, and other factors, and giving him the chance of winning of 84%. That doesnt mean he wins by a commanding lead, but that his chance of winning by any margin is high.

[Zaybay]

They could repeal RTW with a ballot initiative / initiated amendment in 2020. It's not hard to imagine some group doing that, if for no other reason than to try and drive up turnout. Look at what they did initiatives for this year:

Minimum wage
Paid leave
Marijuana legalization
Redistricting reform
Voting rights reform

They would still need the legislature to cooperate on that in Michigan.

It is possible for one of the chambers to flip, albeit narrowly, and it would be rather tough, but a double digit top ticket could pull the chamber over. In that case, they could push this stuff through.

[Zaybay]

Nate Silver just said that a +14 GCB would be a 65-seat gain for the Dems and a flip of the Senate.

I hope it would be something like that, otherwise the GOP really must have stacked the deck. And I think something around 14 would yield more house seats, as gerrymanders collapse and popular/moderate Rs fall due to pure partisanship.

[Zaybay]

It's amazing how Kasich is so completely done with his own party; even though he's very conservative.

Hes going to run against Trump, just watch.

[Zaybay]

The GCB in Ohio is D+6, it was R+16 in 2016 and R+20 in 2014.

Even though OH is an egregious gerrymander, this should break a couple seats, such as OH-01, and destroy the R supermajorities.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1039891434474799105

Wow, the Siena poll was super off. What a surprise, I thought they had great methodology.

[Zaybay]

Wow, the Siena poll was super off. What a surprise, I thought they had great methodology.

They are both within the MOE and are entirely consistent with just pure random sampling error (not to mention they were conducted at different times, the Monmouth poll being conducted more recently when Dems have been going up recently in the GCB).

No it isnt! Its a 10 point difference(remember the Siena poll was an LV sample), which is outside the MOE givin. And its only been 2 weeks, I doubt the race has shifted that much.

The MOEs for the two polls are independent, silly rabbit. The Siena and Monmouth polls are both entirely consistent with the race being a tie. If there is one thing I would have hoped would be clearer to everyone now that we have all observed the NYT/Siena polls for a bit, polls are not precise things.

And yes, public GCB polls have shifted in the past two weeks, even on 538 which has a pretty trend-resistant model. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Im not going to get into this again, but there is no evidence the race is a tie, most evidence(GCB, approvals of both Faso and the president) point to the Monmouth poll being closer, and Ive already harped on Siena's style of polling.

You cant just take a poll at face value. Siena does this every year, and I am used to them overestimating incumbents. Look at 2014, 2010, 2006, 2008, and 2016 to see what I mean. Ive been on political teams that have openly dismissed Siena because of this.

To be fair to Siena, their October/November polls have been very good in the past. Any polls before that have had massive incumbent advantages though.

Yeah I totally agree. You will see me not harping on them in October.