2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Zaybay]

U Mass/ Lowell poll of MA-03 D primary (I can't include links yet, so someone please post!)

Koh 19 (+6)
L’Italien 13
Gifford 13
Trahan 8
Matias 6
Chandler 4
All others <=2%

553 LVs.

One interesting tidbit: Democrats like Baker more than Warren

TBH, I have no idea what the difference between the candidates are, they all seem the same to me. Though it doesnt surprise me that Baker is more popular with Ds than Warren.

[Zaybay]

TBH, I have no idea what the difference between the candidates are, they all seem the same to me. Though it doesnt surprise me that Baker is more popular with Ds than Warren.

Then why does Baker stay a Republican? I thought someone said 2 years ago that he hates Trump so much that he was going to switch parties if Trump won. And he opposed him on some environmental stuff.

Its simple, he is much more Conservative than he lets on, like most of the moderate governors. Google Baker 2010, and youll see what I mean.

[Zaybay]

Marist Generic Ballot Pennsylvania -

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 39%

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNews_MaristPoll_PennsylvaniaAnnotatedQuestionnaire_1808201202_wit.pdf

Jesus... and thats without undecideds. We already have 50%, and it didnt even require undecideds, in PA. With numbers like this, we likely win the entire Eastern part of the state is ours, along with Lamb winning in the west. It also throws PA-10 and PA-16 into a tossup/lean R position.

[Zaybay]

These are some catastrophic cross tabs for the GOP...

They're tied with the Democrats in Western PA 45-45%

Democrats are winning whites 46-44%

Democrats are winning African Americans 93-5%

Democrats winning the Northeast 50-40%

Dems winning Philly Suburbs 56-35%

Dems winning Small cities 49-40%

Dems winning Suburbs 55-36%

Dems winning small towns 43-41%

If the Ds are getting numbers like this in the Philly Suburbs, then the state legislature is a tossup.

[Zaybay]

Siena's dropping a poll of NY-24 tonight:

https://twitter.com/SienaResearch/status/1034123689183338496

My guess is that Katko leads.

Ill say its either a statistical tie, or a Balter lead.

[Zaybay]

NY-24: Siena, Aug. 20-23, 513 likely voters

John Katko (R, inc): 54
Dana Balter (D): 39

Crosstabs: http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/741e13b8-62ea-433f-b43f-f58f94fd8579.pdf

Press release: http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/b61c4283-1c40-49c0-8cf3-d1d8c6888de4.pdf

Trump approval: 45/49

I knew that Katko would put up a good fight. It probably helps him that Trump's approval isn't that bad.

Thats actually very odd. Other polling has shown Trump dropped like a brick here, why is he doing well here? Do we have crosstabs for this poll?

[Zaybay]

NY-24: Siena, Aug. 20-23, 513 likely voters

John Katko (R, inc): 54
Dana Balter (D): 39

Crosstabs: http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/741e13b8-62ea-433f-b43f-f58f94fd8579.pdf

Press release: http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/b61c4283-1c40-49c0-8cf3-d1d8c6888de4.pdf

Trump approval: 45/49

I knew that Katko would put up a good fight. It probably helps him that Trump's approval isn't that bad.

Thats actually very odd. Other polling has shown Trump dropped like a brick here, why is he doing well here? Do we have crosstabs for this poll?

Look up.

Hmmm

34% Democrat
38% Republican
24% Indie

Isnt this district still heavily D? At least in registration? These dont seem correct, considering this is upstate NY, and a district that still has a D PVI.

[Zaybay]

These NY-24 and CA-50 polls are pretty disappointing. Obvious the Dems don't need to win these seats for a majority, and if either falls they are looking at a 50-60 seat gain nationally.  But the margins should be closer in a D+7 or D+8 national environment.  I can see the argument for why Katko might fade a bit, but not Hunter.

Hunter's district is just naturally R. It was always a hard nut to crack, and even then, the best we can get this district is lean R. The poll for Katko looks daunting, but the poll is oversamples Rs and under-samples Ds, giving the poll an R bias of 3 points. And this is just to match the district in current demographics, as a wave election would likely yield a very different, and more D friendly electorate.

[Zaybay]

These NY-24 and CA-50 polls are pretty disappointing. Obvious the Dems don't need to win these seats for a majority, and if either falls they are looking at a 50-60 seat gain nationally.  But the margins should be closer in a D+7 or D+8 national environment.  I can see the argument for why Katko might fade a bit, but not Hunter.

Wow, it's almost like the democrats winning the house is not a locked guarantee or something, huh....

I dont think 2 polls, one in a solid R district with a scandalized incumbent, and the other in a popular incumbent's seat justify such a reaction. We have the house at an 80% chance at this moment, and its only going to improve from there, bar Trump starting a war and everyone forgetting the wave, or some other unpredictable event.

[Zaybay]

These NY-24 and CA-50 polls are pretty disappointing. Obvious the Dems don't need to win these seats for a majority, and if either falls they are looking at a 50-60 seat gain nationally.  But the margins should be closer in a D+7 or D+8 national environment.  I can see the argument for why Katko might fade a bit, but not Hunter.

Wow, it's almost like the democrats winning the house is not a locked guarantee or something, huh....

I dont think 2 polls, one in a solid R district with a scandalized incumbent, and the other in a popular incumbent's seat justify such a reaction. We have the house at an 80% chance at this moment, and its only going to improve from there, bar Trump starting a war and everyone forgetting the wave, or some other unpredictable event.

There were three that I saw on here today I'm talking about. I'm telling ya man, the GOP gerrymandered the sh!t outta the house, it's not an easy lock, for instance we all know there should be two dem seats outta St Louis area MO. Look, I agree with you, we don't need to win these seats at all to win the house, but the margins would have to be a little tighter here for me to be confident. I mean Wagner and Katko leading by mid to highish single digits would not phase me, but not double digits. I also wish the race in Hunter's district was a bit tighter. Margins matter folks.

The problem is that you are taking singular polls and drawing a large conclusion(then again, that is a problem about Atlas, and not just you). For instance, in Katko's case, he was losing by 4 points in an earlier poll by PPP. And for MO, its not really a seat we need, but it can still be won, the pollster who did it is not the best. We already have the seats we need to win in our column, and its becoming harder and harder to see us lose. We are tieing or beating all of the CA vulnerable, beating the NJs, and pulling crazy margins in PA. Thats most of the seats we need right there, and then we can pick off some easy ones, like FL, and some tossup seats, like ME and IL. The margin of the house is worrying, but it should trend heavily in our favour as time goes on. Its not even labour day yet.

[Zaybay]

One thing I don't understand is this: The generic House ballot margin on 538 keeps getting bigger, but the likelihood of the Democrats taking the House is getting slightly smaller. How can that happen?

The reason why is that, unlike what Hofoid is babbling, the chart seems to use the unadjusted numbers for the ballot, and even cuts some polls out entirely. If you look at the house margin on 538, it shows that the GCB is at 6.8, even though the site shows 8.3

[Zaybay]

These NY-24 and CA-50 polls are pretty disappointing. Obvious the Dems don't need to win these seats for a majority, and if either falls they are looking at a 50-60 seat gain nationally.  But the margins should be closer in a D+7 or D+8 national environment.  I can see the argument for why Katko might fade a bit, but not Hunter.

Wow, it's almost like the democrats winning the house is not a locked guarantee or something, huh....

I dont think 2 polls, one in a solid R district with a scandalized incumbent, and the other in a popular incumbent's seat justify such a reaction. We have the house at an 80% chance at this moment, and its only going to improve from there, bar Trump starting a war and everyone forgetting the wave, or some other unpredictable event.

There were three that I saw on here today I'm talking about. I'm telling ya man, the GOP gerrymandered the sh!t outta the house, it's not an easy lock, for instance we all know there should be two dem seats outta St Louis area MO. Look, I agree with you, we don't need to win these seats at all to win the house, but the margins would have to be a little tighter here for me to be confident. I mean Wagner and Katko leading by mid to highish single digits would not phase me, but not double digits. I also wish the race in Hunter's district was a bit tighter. Margins matter folks.

The problem is that you are taking singular polls and drawing a large conclusion(then again, that is a problem about Atlas, and not just you). For instance, in Katko's case, he was losing by 4 points in an earlier poll by PPP. And for MO, its not really a seat we need, but it can still be won, the pollster who did it is not the best. We already have the seats we need to win in our column, and its becoming harder and harder to see us lose. We are tieing or beating all of the CA vulnerable, beating the NJs, and pulling crazy margins in PA. Thats most of the seats we need right there, and then we can pick off some easy ones, like FL, and some tossup seats, like ME and IL. The margin of the house is worrying, but it should trend heavily in our favour as time goes on. Its not even labour day yet.

Labor day is in a week, so we are almost there.

Historically, Labour day is the best time for the incumbent party, and then, its all downhill from there.

[Zaybay]

These NY-24 and CA-50 polls are pretty disappointing. Obvious the Dems don't need to win these seats for a majority, and if either falls they are looking at a 50-60 seat gain nationally.  But the margins should be closer in a D+7 or D+8 national environment.  I can see the argument for why Katko might fade a bit, but not Hunter.

Wow, it's almost like the democrats winning the house is not a locked guarantee or something, huh....

I dont think 2 polls, one in a solid R district with a scandalized incumbent, and the other in a popular incumbent's seat justify such a reaction. We have the house at an 80% chance at this moment, and its only going to improve from there, bar Trump starting a war and everyone forgetting the wave, or some other unpredictable event.

There were three that I saw on here today I'm talking about. I'm telling ya man, the GOP gerrymandered the sh!t outta the house, it's not an easy lock, for instance we all know there should be two dem seats outta St Louis area MO. Look, I agree with you, we don't need to win these seats at all to win the house, but the margins would have to be a little tighter here for me to be confident. I mean Wagner and Katko leading by mid to highish single digits would not phase me, but not double digits. I also wish the race in Hunter's district was a bit tighter. Margins matter folks.

The problem is that you are taking singular polls and drawing a large conclusion(then again, that is a problem about Atlas, and not just you). For instance, in Katko's case, he was losing by 4 points in an earlier poll by PPP. And for MO, its not really a seat we need, but it can still be won, the pollster who did it is not the best. We already have the seats we need to win in our column, and its becoming harder and harder to see us lose. We are tieing or beating all of the CA vulnerable, beating the NJs, and pulling crazy margins in PA. Thats most of the seats we need right there, and then we can pick off some easy ones, like FL, and some tossup seats, like ME and IL. The margin of the house is worrying, but it should trend heavily in our favour as time goes on. Its not even labour day yet.

Labor day is in a week, so we are almost there.

Historically, Labour day is the best time for the incumbent party, and then, its all downhill from there.

To be fair, this is not exactly a conventional year with dems ahead in AZ, TN, and WV, and trailing in FL, of course that can and probably will change, but yeah, it aint a conventional year.

Actually, this year has been rather conventional, an weirdly mirrors the GOP wave of 2010. Their are independent factors, like candidate quality, that do influence races. AK was a solid D hold in 2010, and TN was solid D as well in 2006. And FL, is...a special case. Nelson has barely aired ads while Scott is practically burning his money. Its an interesting race, but it should change with the massive ad buy Nelson is doing, after Labour day.

[Zaybay]

Ipsos/Reuters, Aug. 21-27, 2925 registered voters

D: 46 (+6)
R: 34 (-4)

(Don't freak out about the size of the swing.  This poll tends to be very bouncy.)

it being at D+2 was a bit weird, especially since it was D+10 before, I believe.

[Zaybay]

Siena will release a NY-22 poll tonight.

This is an absolute must win race, we have to be ahead here.

trolling

Well, I would not go that far, but I would say that it would be pretty bad, and I'd shift the house rating back to tilt R instead of tossup firearm to head dems edge out the house.

......I get you are a blue dog, but that doesnt mean that every rating you give has to be the most conservative one possible.

[Zaybay]

Siena will release a NY-22 poll tonight.

This is an absolute must win race, we have to be ahead here.

trolling

Well, I would not go that far, but I would say that it would be pretty bad, and I'd shift the house rating back to tilt R instead of tossup firearm to head dems edge out the house.

......I get you are a blue dog, but that doesnt mean that every rating you give has to be the most conservative one possible.

I don't like to be optimistic ever since I got burned in the 2016 election where I predicted that Hillary would have the same electoral map as Obama 2012. Never recovered from that. Ever since, I have always felt that going in with lower expectations and being less cocky serves up better. So yes, I tend to have conservative estimates now.

I would be careful with that line of thinking. Its the same one the pudits are using, and so far, both you and the pundits have been burned, multiple times this cycle.

[Zaybay]

Siena will release a NY-22 poll tonight.

This is an absolute must win race, we have to be ahead here.

trolling

Well, I would not go that far, but I would say that it would be pretty bad, and I'd shift the house rating back to tilt R instead of tossup firearm to head dems edge out the house.

......I get you are a blue dog, but that doesnt mean that every rating you give has to be the most conservative one possible.

I don't like to be optimistic ever since I got burned in the 2016 election where I predicted that Hillary would have the same electoral map as Obama 2012. Never recovered from that. Ever since, I have always felt that going in with lower expectations and being less cocky serves up better. So yes, I tend to have conservative estimates now.

I would be careful with that line of thinking. Its the same one the pudits are using, and so far, both you and the pundits have been burned, multiple times this cycle.

But it feels a lot better to be burned when you go in with low expectations and get surprised versus the opposite, that's for me at least.

true, it is better to be delightfully surprised than to be woefully crushed.

[Zaybay]

NY-22: Siena, Aug. 20-26, 499 likely voters

Anthony Brindisi (D): 46
Claudia Tenney (R, inc): 44

It is Sienna, so it does have a pro-incumbency bias, but these are still great numbers, and the undecideds in the poll look like they will lean D.

[Zaybay]

NY-22: Siena, Aug. 20-26, 499 likely voters

Anthony Brindisi (D): 46
Claudia Tenney (R, inc): 44

It is Sienna, so it does have a pro-incumbency bias, but these are still great numbers, and the undecideds in the poll look like they will lean D.

How does a polling firm have a pro-incumbent bias?  Like, what sort of sampling or weighting procedure would produce this?

they tend to give incumbents a better sample. For instance, both this poll and the other NY poll have had a GOP bias of around 3-4 in registration, but when they do D districts, they have a 3-4 D bias.

[Zaybay]

NY-22:Aug. 20-26, 499 likely voters

Anthony Brindisi (D): 46
Claudia Tenney (R, inc): 44

The GCB is R+13. Like I’ve been saying, a generic Republican would be winning easily here, but Claudia Tenney is not a generic Republican. You can see that from the fact that Brindisi is getting twenty-four percent of the Republican vote and is only underwater 31-37 among Republicans in terms of favorability that this is a perfect match-up for Democrats to pick off disaffected Rockefeller Republicans.

Are there really a ton of moderate GOPers in this district?

Upstate NY Republicans are a mix of New England-style moderates, ancestrally Democratic blue-collar workers who voted for Trump, and rural farmers and gun nuts who wish New York City would sink into the ocean. Most of them will happily ticket-split to vote for Cuomo and Schumer. Many of them will do the same here.

Its like the rustbelt combined with moderate GOP suburbs. Its very swingy, as we are probably going to see this election.

[Zaybay]

NY-22: Siena, Aug. 20-26, 499 likely voters

Anthony Brindisi (D): 46
Claudia Tenney (R, inc): 44

It is Sienna, so it does have a pro-incumbency bias, but these are still great numbers, and the undecideds in the poll look like they will lean D.

How does a polling firm have a pro-incumbent bias?  Like, what sort of sampling or weighting procedure would produce this?

they tend to give incumbents a better sample. For instance, both this poll and the other NY poll have had a GOP bias of around 3-4 in registration, but when they do D districts, they have a 3-4 D bias.

But why would they do this?  Like, why would you use a different sampling or weighting procedure for races with a Democrat versus Republican incumbent?

From what I gather, they overestimate the incumbent effect. For incumbents, they weirdly think that more Rs/Ds would come out for their incumbent when that doesnt really happen. And its especially bad in the waves of 2014 and 2018.

[Zaybay]

Siena will drop a NY-19 poll tonight.

Is Siena doing the entire state, or something?

[Zaybay]

Siena will drop a NY-19 poll tonight.

Prediction: Faso +1

Other prediction: Delgado wins in November anyway

yeah, based on their other polls, I would say Faso will lead, but Delgado will win anyway.

[Zaybay]

What are these numbers?

Faso approval: 37/38

Delagado approval: 34/22

and Im not sure about these numbers either

 Democrat 32%
 Republican 37%
 Independent/Other 26%

None of these line up with the district, or make any real sense. Then again, its the incumbent's favorite pollster, so what should I expect.

[Zaybay]

Wow, this poll really oversampled old people. But what else is new for the pollster that will break all rules of polling to get the incumbent with a positive.