2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Zaybay]

Yeah, but if gains are only concentrated in centrist/country club #Resistance-type areas like Comstock's seat or packed VRA districts, the Dems won't have much hope.

Gains will be concentrated in Comstock-like districts, yes.

But we don't have to worry about gains being packed in VRA districts, because the wave looks like it will be based mostly on white voters. Outside of a few races like GA-GOV and FL-GOV, minority turnout is not likely to be anything to write home about. Though it should obviously be better than 2010 and 2014, at the end of the day it will be midterm level non-white turnout, not Presidential.

Not really, I would say 50/50. You have the CA, PA, and NJ seats, but after that, there arent many favourable seats for the Dems in suburban areas, only a couple. Trump districts, in ME, NY, KY, WV, MT, and others should make up the rest of our gains.

[Zaybay]

Okay at first I thought it was just one pollster having a massive spike for Ds, but now every pollster? Whats happening?

[Zaybay]

Makes it 9.4 on 538 heading into Labor Day weekend

Equals the largest margin since mid-January (also seen on a couple of days in March).  The D average of 48.8 is the highest since early January.

And the undecided vote is still large. Geez, we may be heading for a double digit wave.

[Zaybay]

NC-07 (Lincoln Park Strategies/Horton internal):

Kyle Horton (D) 44
David Rouzer (R-inc) 40

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20180831_NC_7.pdf

I will take this with a massive grain of salt.

If that is even close to accurate, this could be a really big wave. That race is not even on the board (safe R) on both Cook and Crystal Ball.

I agree, the only reason for this is that, possibly, the gerrymander is becoming a dummymander. And now that I think about it, with our current trajectory, thats not so far fetched.

[Zaybay]

LOL, no way this is true, if it is Democrats are gaining 100+ House seats.

TBF, if anyone told us in September 2010 that Republicans would pick up 60+ seats nobody would believe him.

[Zaybay]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the chart is broken. The last hurrah for R strength has become a complete and crushing route.

[Zaybay]

It's Emerson people.

The same massive lead has been shown in other polling.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1036917029658390528

52/38 D.  Previous WaPo poll (end of June/beginning of July) was 47/37.

geez, thats D+13, and, again, their are still undecideds(10%).

[Zaybay]

I cant take the D double digit lead, its too much!

[Zaybay]

I'm guessing that Trump's nastiness about the McCain funeral, like the Access Hollywood tape, moved some solid Rs to undecided. They'll come home after a week unless Trump does something comparable.

Don't undecideds usually break for the opposition in mid-terms, especially if the incumbent President is unpopular?

Certainly, but I believe there's a small segment of the population which is generally with Trump and only becomes undecided for short periods of time when he does something truly heinous. If the election happens 3 days after he strangles a puppy, they might stay home or vote D, but not otherwise.

I think people are overhyping how much the recent controversys are effecting Trump. Remember, hes done similar things in the past, and nothing ever has changed. What is diifferent, however, is the timing. If you look at the recent polls, the R votershare isnt crashing while the D vote is rising, which would show "jumping ship". Instead, the Ds are seeing a massive boost. This points to undecideds moving towards the Ds, rather than the Rs moving to tossup or leaning D. Trump's controversys arent pushing voters to the Ds, its just that the people who would check "I dunno" are now checking D.

So basically this:

Don't undecideds usually break for the opposition in mid-terms, especially if the incumbent President is unpopular?

yep

[Zaybay]

Of course YouGov releases a poll that's only D+2. That's gotta be embarrassing for them.

Turn off the hype train Democrats, the one true pollster has spoken the truth. At this race, there will be a huge red wave.

[Zaybay]

I'm guessing that Trump's nastiness about the McCain funeral, like the Access Hollywood tape, moved some solid Rs to undecided. They'll come home after a week unless Trump does something comparable.

Don't undecideds usually break for the opposition in mid-terms, especially if the incumbent President is unpopular?

Certainly, but I believe there's a small segment of the population which is generally with Trump and only becomes undecided for short periods of time when he does something truly heinous. If the election happens 3 days after he strangles a puppy, they might stay home or vote D, but not otherwise.

Yep, it's about what news strikes during the last week of October/first few days of November that counts the most. Americans for the most part have the attention spans of kindergarteners.

No proof to that whatsoever, but alright Hofoid. Whatever makes you happy.

[Zaybay]

I'm guessing that Trump's nastiness about the McCain funeral, like the Access Hollywood tape, moved some solid Rs to undecided. They'll come home after a week unless Trump does something comparable.

Don't undecideds usually break for the opposition in mid-terms, especially if the incumbent President is unpopular?

Certainly, but I believe there's a small segment of the population which is generally with Trump and only becomes undecided for short periods of time when he does something truly heinous. If the election happens 3 days after he strangles a puppy, they might stay home or vote D, but not otherwise.

Yep, it's about what news strikes during the last week of October/first few days of November that counts the most. Americans for the most part have the attention spans of kindergarteners.

No proof to that whatsoever, but alright Hofoid. Whatever makes you happy.

I was merely agreeing with Brittain33, but I get slammed for it. Hmm...Anyhow, Access Hollywood ended up being minor compared to the Comey-bomb that blew tatters on Hillary's hopes.

and, if you were to look back, you could see that I disagreed with Brittain as well. Anyway, The Comey bomb is one out of millions of factors that screwed Hillary in the end, considering she lost 3 states by less than 1%. Perhaps if she chose a different VP, then things would be different.

[Zaybay]

Call me skeptical that Florida hispanics are going to save the GOP.

[Zaybay]

Massive fan of what NYT is doing, perhaps we may finally get a better idea of what seats will flip.

[Zaybay]

MN-01
Harper Polling (Hagedorn internal)
400 Likely Voters

Jim Hagedorn (R)-47
Dan Feehan (D)-33

MOE +/- 4.9%

http://www.keyc.com/story/39041618/new-poll-has-hagedorn-ahead-of-feehan

I'm skeptical, but Hagedorn's name recognition probably does give him an edge right now, even if he does end up losing.

.....Yeah Im skeptical, though its possible that MN-01 and MN-08 are safer than we think

[Zaybay]

Here are polls for all 4 CD's in Utah, conducted by Lighthouse Research, commissioned by the Utah Debate Commission:

CD-1:

• Rob Bishop (R)- 51% +35
• Lee Castillo (D)- 16%

CD-2:

• Chris Stewart (R)- 49% +22
• Shireen Ghorbani (D)- 27%

CD-3:

• John Curtis (R)- 52% +32
• James Singer (D)- 20%

CD-4:

• Mia Love (R)- 48% +10
• Ben McAdams (D)-38%

Source: https://t.co/AzBvbeuBf4

Utah 4th has been quite disappointing, I won't lie. I thought we had an A grade recruit who was narrowly favored, and it has all but fizzled out.

I always thought Ben was a weak candidate. He was just boring, and had no real appeal whatsoever. He still may win, but it will be because of the environment and Mia, not because of him.

[Zaybay]

Lucy McBath just posted a poll on her Instagram.

Handel (R): 49%
McBath (D): 47%

She didn’t cite it so it’s our job to sleuth out the internet.

That's about as believable as the Hagedorn internal from last page. Handel is a near perfect fit for her district, and she isn't going to lose, after already defeating a stronger opponent last year, to a candidate as weak as McBath. Kevin Abel could have made this race competitive, but alas.

I don't understand why people think McBath is a weak candidate. She seems perfectly fine to me. Nobody has been able to give an explanation.

Shes not, its just Atlas calling any D who isnt leading by 10 points a terrible candidate, as per the usual.

[Zaybay]

Lucy McBath just posted a poll on her Instagram.

Handel (R): 49%
McBath (D): 47%

She didn’t cite it so it’s our job to sleuth out the internet.

That's about as believable as the Hagedorn internal from last page. Handel is a near perfect fit for her district, and she isn't going to lose, after already defeating a stronger opponent last year, to a candidate as weak as McBath. Kevin Abel could have made this race competitive, but alas.

I don't understand why people think McBath is a weak candidate. She seems perfectly fine to me. Nobody has been able to give an explanation.

She's a one trick pony with pathetic fundraising abilities going up against a decent incumbent in an R+8 Trump seat. Also it's suburban Atlanta which can still be a little racist (mostly concealed but still), so...

That's blatantly false but ok

its based off the fact that she campaigned on gun control, and Atlas cant figure out that campaigning in a primary is different than campaigning in a general.

Bagel, shes not going to campaign just on gun control.

[Zaybay]

Lucy McBath just posted a poll on her Instagram.

Handel (R): 49%
McBath (D): 47%

She didn’t cite it so it’s our job to sleuth out the internet.

That's about as believable as the Hagedorn internal from last page. Handel is a near perfect fit for her district, and she isn't going to lose, after already defeating a stronger opponent last year, to a candidate as weak as McBath. Kevin Abel could have made this race competitive, but alas.

I don't understand why people think McBath is a weak candidate. She seems perfectly fine to me. Nobody has been able to give an explanation.

She's a one trick pony with pathetic fundraising abilities going up against a decent incumbent in an R+8 Trump seat. Also it's suburban Atlanta which can still be a little racist (mostly concealed but still), so...

That's blatantly false but ok

its based off the fact that she campaigned on gun control, and Atlas cant figure out that campaigning in a primary is different than campaigning in a general.

Bagel, shes not going to campaign just on gun control.

You have an argument there, but her fundraising levels are just too little.

money isnt everything, and many candidates have gotten over the line with anemic fundraising. In fact, we have gotten a bit spoiled in our thinking, as Ds have never had such fundraising as we see today, not even in 2006.

While I do coincide that she is not a top pickup, its more due to the district, than the candidates.

[Zaybay]

I was going based on Cook ratings, but yeah. If Democrats gain seats, it's probably going to be the most lopsided Senate class since the 1930s or maybe even since Reconstruction or maybe ever.

Eventually this Senate class is going to be up in a Republican wave year, and it is going to be a disaster. It could easily be a loss of 15 Senate seats or something crazy high like that.

Actually, if we look at the years this will be up, the next possible wave year would be.....
2018, 2024, 2030
2030
and by that point, many of the vulnerable senators would have retired. And this doesnt include the state trends that we could see. After 2024, which will likely be a neutral year, a possible R wave in 2030 would probably yield rather modest results.

[Zaybay]

Yea, depending on how you view the 2020s as unfolding, 2030 could actually go either way. For instance:

1. 2020 - Trump loses, Democrat wins in 2020 and 2024, Republican wins in 2028, 2030 is anywhere from a normal midterm to a Dem wave. Probably #4's result
2. 2020 - Trump loses, Democrat wins in 2020, 2024 and 2028 - realignment scenario, where 2030 could see a lot of R gains but also maybe not that many depending on what the landscape looks like then
3. 2020 - Trump wins, Democrat wins in 2024 and 2028 (no realignment?), 6 year itch = probably big losses
4. 2020 - Trump wins, Democrat wins in 2024, Republican wins in 2028, 2030 = probably Dem wave due to Millennials/gen z being a force of nature at that point

Not really going to entertain the idea of 12 years of a Republican White House from 2016 - 2028.

Right now, I would bet Democrats bring this Senate class in for a soft landing by the time the 2020s are over.

Alternative possibility -

A Dem President beats Trump in 2020. For whatever reason, this Dem President turns out to be really unpopular. Perhaps there is some major foreign policy disaster. Perhaps the economy collapses into a really big recession/depression/whatever.

Then 2024 is a Republican wave year and Republicans pick up 15 senate seats, the Presidency, and the House.

rather hard to pull off. The Dems have the advantage, due to their base, in presidential elections. The largest R wave was only +7, so for them to take 15, they would need everything to go right, which is, again,unlikely.

Also, 15?? I can see 10, but 15? Hard to see occur in any scenario

[Zaybay]

Also, 15?? I can see 10, but 15? Hard to see occur in any scenario

That is assuming Dems do well and perhaps take the Senate this year. Suppose for example Dems pick up NV, AZ, and TN in 2018, and all the Dem incumbents hold on.

In that case, seats that could be lost in a hypothetical Republican 2024 wave include:

NV
AZ
TN
NM
MT
ND
MN
WI
MO
MI
IN
OH
WV
VA
PA
ME
FL

That is 17 seats, and not even counting the possibility of the Republicans picking up a seat in a normally safe Dem state (WA, CA, NJ, etc).

Sorry that it took me so long. Anyway, it seems that you just took the PVI of states(from 2016, no less) without considering the factors of the candidates, and the directions of the states.

NV- not likely. NV has been trending D, and it was able to avoid the waves of 2010, and 2014. In the scenario where Heller is defeated, the seat would be lean D, due to this.
AZ- same case with NV, the state is trending Blue, and its inelastic. Hard to see a pickup here.
TN-yes
NM-depends. The state is midelastic, so I can see a pickup, but the state is trending more D, and its becoming more and more inelastic. Best case, Ill give it to the Rs
MT-yes
ND-yes
MN-depends. The MNDEM party is one of the best in the US, and the rurals are open to voting for Ds. perhaps.
WI-see MN
MO-yes
MI-real depends, need to see 2020 to make a better guess
IN-yes
OH-yes
WV-yes
VA- This is NV on steroids. The state is trending D, and is as inelastic as the rest of the South. Probably wont flip
PA-If Casey runs again, no chance. Again, if he doesnt, it gets interesting, but hes still young, so Ill say he stays
ME- If Angus King stays, no chance. If he leaves, then it gets interesting. But the seat would still be favoured for the Ds, unless they go with a terrible choice(it is the MEDEMs)
FL-yes
So, overall
R flips: 8
Possible: 4

So really, 12 is around the max in a GOP wave.

[Zaybay]

We're seriously trying to predict senate races in 2030 now. This is peak Atlas.

excuse me? Its 2024 races, good sir. Get it right.

[Zaybay]

notice

Im not going to pollute the thread, so I made one in the debate tab, if you want to continue, my reply is there.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301190.0