KY-GOV: Bevin reportedly considering withdrawing

[Zaybay]

I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that one of America's most unpopular governors might be withdrawing from a reelection. I mean, what reason would he have to withdraw? What does one of America's most unpopular governors see as threatening to his reelection chances?

[Zaybay]

If he withdraws, then the race goes from tilt R to likely R.  After what happened in Oklahoma, I don't think Beshear can pull it off unless he runs against Bevin.

Yep, popularity is heavily correlated with election performance. It really is Bevin being massively unpopular that is making this race highly competitive(same reason the very popular JBE is favored for his race in inelastic R territory).

[Zaybay]

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

A chance at losing by only single digits.

Probably - yes. Bevin is unpopular, but national Democratic party brand is unpopular in Kentucky too.

Not really. Much of the positions held in the state are by Democrats, and many Democrats have won in rather deep Trump territory. While the brand probably isnt that popular, I doubt its thatbad, otherwise many of these Dems, both newly elected and old guard, would have not been in their current position.

[Zaybay]

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

A chance at losing by only single digits.

Probably - yes. Bevin is unpopular, but national Democratic party brand is unpopular in Kentucky too.

Not really. Much of the positions held in the state are by Democrats, and many Democrats have won in rather deep Trump territory. While the brand probably isnt that popular, I doubt its thatbad, otherwise many of these Dems, both newly elected and old guard, would have not been in their current position.

AFAIK, many of these Democrats differ substantially from national party on many social issues (abortions, guns, and so on).

Not really. The top Dems, such as Beshar, have pretty standard positions, and many Democrats in the state house and senate, who occupy hard R territory, have pretty standard D positions(one is even an uber-progressive).