Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

[Zaybay]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

[Zaybay]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

He has a reasonable shot in California [yeah, Harris should get first easily, but a respectable 2nd or 3rd shouldn't be underestimated], and then there's New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Florida to consider too.

And of course Iowa is a bit of a wildcard, and also the place where...save some rando Iowa Senator or Governor, usually ends up picking the nominee.

Thats the problem though, thats not at all enough delegates to make it to the convention, and the way the primary is formatted, momentum is key. For instance, if hes not able to win an early primary state, most likely IA or NV, then his momentum dies, and even if he does, it wont guarantee him victory against rather big juggernauts like Harris and Sanders.

Also, Im pretty sure you just listed a bunch of states with heavy Hispanic populations. While I agree that may be one of his strong points, the vote is likely to be heavily contested, considering Sanders is currently winning it and Biden/Harris will be vying for it.

If I were to name Beto's biggest problem, its that his base is too spread out. While he clearly will wipe the floor in TX, outside of that state, he doesnt have a strong enough floor in a bunch of these states, unlike Harris(Deep South), or Sanders(New England, Great Plains). If he wants to win, hes gonna need to find some area or demographic he can win in, and win big, otherwise, hes not getting to the convention.

[Zaybay]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

He has a reasonable shot in California [yeah, Harris should get first easily, but a respectable 2nd or 3rd shouldn't be underestimated], and then there's New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Florida to consider too.

And of course Iowa is a bit of a wildcard, and also the place where...save some rando Iowa Senator or Governor, usually ends up picking the nominee.

Thats the problem though, thats not at all enough delegates to make it to the convention, and the way the primary is formatted, momentum is key. For instance, if hes not able to win an early primary state, most likely IA or NV, then his momentum dies, and even if he does, it wont guarantee him victory against rather big juggernauts like Harris and Sanders.

Also, Im pretty sure you just listed a bunch of states with heavy Hispanic populations. While I agree that may be one of his strong points, the vote is likely to be heavily contested, considering Sanders is currently winning it and Biden/Harris will be vying for it.

If I were to name Beto's biggest problem, its that his base is too spread out. While he clearly will wipe the floor in TX, outside of that state, he doesnt have a strong enough floor in a bunch of these states, unlike Harris(Deep South), or Sanders(New England, Great Plains). If he wants to win, hes gonna need to find some area or demographic he can win in, and win big, otherwise, hes not getting to the convention.

Except I don't necessarily think Bernie is locked in with The Great Plains, to which the Texas Panhandle isn't dissimilar from.

So take that out, assume Warren and Sanders duke it out in New England, The South gets split a bunch of ways like it's '88 all over again [and given the disproportionate focus there in the primaries, the establishment and yes, Bernie too, will go crazy there, a split is highly likely], then The West and Great Plains become more important.

And those heavily Hispanic states are also very suburban too, both of which seem to be Beto's forte. And it's not entirely unfathomable that he uses that to turn those states [or in the case of California, just SoCal] into a good base.

His roadblock is Iowa. Getting there, that is that is crucial. And that is the problem.

Yeah, the Sanders/Warren split is fair.

Anyway, the problem is that, even if hes winning the Hispanic vote outright(unlikely), and even if hes winning these states by 70%. Even if he gets 40% in CA. Hes still doesnt have enough delegates, and by this time, there is nowhere for him to really expand. He really doesnt have any states that he can gain the delegates needed in to get to the contested convention against people like Harris, Sanders, Biden, etc. who have well established bases of geographic and demographic support.

If I am to be honest, Im pretty sure Beto wants the VP position.

[Zaybay]

Republicans want Bernie Sanders to be the nominee and fear Beto could drain key constituent support from him. They are trying to cut him off at the knees before he even enters the race.

Yeah, that almost never works out when the opposition party tries to pick their competition. Just a couple of examples:

1960: Being Catholic, Nixon believed Kennedy would give him the edge in the election.

1980: The Democrats wanted Reagan to be the GOP nominee, as they saw him as "too Conservative for the Nation to handle".

2008: Obama was seen as the man that could lose the election to McCain, and Clinton as a guaranteed loss.

2016: Trump was seen as the man who would lose the election by 20 points.

[Zaybay]

Republicans want Bernie Sanders to be the nominee and fear Beto could drain key constituent support from him. They are trying to cut him off at the knees before he even enters the race.

Yeah, that almost never works out when the opposition party tries to pick their competition. Just a couple of examples:

1960: Being Catholic, Nixon believed Kennedy would give him the edge in the election.

1980: The Democrats wanted Reagan to be the GOP nominee, as they saw him as "too Conservative for the Nation to handle".

2008: Obama was seen as the man that could lose the election to McCain, and Clinton as a guaranteed loss.

2016: Trump was seen as the man who would lose the election by 20 points.

It did work in 1972, and Trump is in a lot of ways...very Nixonian.

One example of success doesn’t exuse the strategy’s long history of failure.

[Zaybay]

Really odd endorsements so far. First a random Anti-Pelosi congresswoman from Long Island, and now  the Blue Dog of Orlando Stephanie Murphy. Either Beto has really good ties from his years as a congressman, or...., yeah I got nothing, this is really weird.

[Zaybay]

I mean, even Enten is noticing an odd track with the endorsements:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1106239602669637632

[Zaybay]

Beto got his 2nd endorsement from NY:
https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1106273782237458434?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[Zaybay]

Beto got his 2nd endorsement from NY:
https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1106273782237458434?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

Maloney is one of the most right-wing Democrats. But he somehow fooled some people into thinking he was a progressive when he ran for AG. Perfect for Beto.

Considering the fact that you think anyone to the right of Lenin a right-winger, your comment is neither useful, nor surprising.

I mean, he's actually sorta right this time. Maloney is one of the most Conservative Democrats in the House. The rest is garbage.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/okayhenderson/status/1106243586172092418

[Zaybay]

It appears to me, just based off of the endorsements and the campaign theme Beto is building, that he will be running as a more Moderate Dem, in the same vein as Biden, Hickenlooper, etc.

[Zaybay]

It appears to me, just based off of the endorsements and the campaign theme Beto is building, that he will be running as a more Moderate Dem, in the same vein as Biden, Hickenlooper, etc.

I mean to be fair, the endorsements don't necessarily make the campaign. Sanders got endorsements from conservative Democrats like Collin Peterson and Dan Lipinski, but his campaign was anything but moderate.

The campaign tone hes taking and the stances hes taken so far are pretty moderate as well though.

[Zaybay]

I hate this primary. And for once can Bernie's supporters not act like crazed Jehovah's Witnesses on the street.

Im starting to feel that this is an automated response.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1106643205309820930



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1106646562766086145

[Zaybay]

Why is any criticism and scrutiny immediately a hit-piece? Maybe its just, you know, scrutiny of a candidate running for president? Nah, the world must be out to get Beto because of......reasons.

[Zaybay]

We got the fundraising numbers:

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1108365181439148037

Id say this is a really great start for Beto, not only because of the fact that he outraised Sanders, but he did so with less people. This means that if Beto's campaign, if he emerges as a frontrunner, could scale rather well, and he may become a fundraising machine.

On the otherhand, this kinda plays into the idea that Beto's numbers were just larger and less plentiful, which may signify a weakness in how large his base is(of course, this is day 1, so I doubt this will stick).

Pretty good day to be a Beto supporter, Id say, and a pretty bad day to be a Sanders/Harris supporter. Now we just need Biden for the full picture.

[Zaybay]

It was a predominately white crowd at a predominately white university. Try harder.

Here he is like an hour later at an HBCU... lol

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1109197161311412225

So he tweeted a 4 photos of himself with African American students? If you want to refute the idea that Beto has significant minority support, the answer isnt to take a photo posted by the candidate in question.

[Zaybay]

It was a predominately white crowd at a predominately white university. Try harder.

Here he is like an hour later at an HBCU... lol

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1109197161311412225

So he tweeted a 4 photos of himself with African American students? If you want to refute the idea that Beto has significant minority support, the answer isnt to take a photo posted by the candidate in question.

You’re reaching deeper than this conversation was. Bernie was made fun of for having predominately white audiences in traditional black spaces such as a black church in a majority black town in South Carolina. Beto having a predominately white  crowd at a predominately white university is not comparable. Beto did however have a black audience in a black space UNLIKE Bernie. It is what it is.

You completely missed what I was saying. Using a tweet from the subject in question is just poor evidence, period. Candidates specifically take photos and make appearances, use specific wordings, etc. to drive a narrative. This is just poor evidence, nothing more, nothing less.

[Zaybay]

Hmm, its odd. We are on week 2 of Beto's announcement(week 3 by Thursday), and Beto still hasnt had a polling bounce. Im starting to think his strategy of announcing later than most of the competition may have diminished his possible gains.

[Zaybay]

Hmm, its odd. We are on week 2 of Beto's announcement(week 3 by Thursday), and Beto still hasnt had a polling bounce. Im starting to think his strategy of announcing later than most of the competition may have diminished his possible gains.

I would wait to see how his 3 rallies in one day go. Then, the customary few days to a week for it to trickle into the polls. But yeah, he hasn’t really gooten a big jump.

I mean, yeah, we should wait for his campaign to actually start, but lets be honest. His name is in the news all the time, discussions are happening with him as the subject, etc, etc. No one is going to not be suddenly caught off guard that he's running and rush to support him after he announces. Perhaps a couple people, but most likely statistically significant(of course, if I am wrong, I would like to be quoted if it happens). Its really odd, as everyone else saw a bump by this point, but nothing for Beto so far.

[Zaybay]

That makes 3 Democrats who have called out Netanyahu(the 3 being Beto, Sanders, and Buttigieg, BTW). Good for them.

[Zaybay]

He raised $6.1 million in the first 24 hours. Stop moving goal posts to prop your Messiah up.

He lied about outraising Bernie. And anyways, those donors are totally maxed out and can't give again. Bernie has very few maxed out donors. No goal posts were moved. Only primary money should be counted over a year before any general election money can be spent.

Source? Reddit doesn't count. Keep telling yourself that though.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/democrats-2020-fundraising.html

Hes (kinda) right, heres the original:

Mr. O’Rourke’s campaign touted, loudly, that he actually had out-raised Mr. Sanders in his first 24 hours as a candidate: $6.1 million to $6 million. But the new federal disclosures show that Mr. O’Rourke relied upon a bit of accounting finesse to score that headline: Nearly $300,000 of his first-day haul was actually general-election funds raised above the limit that he can spend in the primary contest.

Sanders did outraise Beto on the first day.

[Zaybay]

Beto O'Rourke raised $6.1 million during the first 24 hours of his campaign. Next subject.

That still isnt correct. He raised $5.8 million during the first 24 hours of his campaign and then transferred $300k from his previous general election campaign that he was unable to use due to regulations.

[Zaybay]

Also, Im surprised this wasnt mentioned, but Beto released 10 years of his tax forms on Monday, same day as Sanders:
https://betoorourke.com/tax-returns/



He, um, well he isnt really getting positive news coverage from it.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/17/beto-orourke-tax-returns-1279475
Over Charity Donations too....