GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Zaybay]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

[Zaybay]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

It was the tipper in 2014, and it very well could be again. If the math is done, and 4-5 seats are needed, GA likely fills the fifth spot...and the sixth spot should Peters become threatened by James.

The tipping point state would be the 4th, as its extremely unlikely we win the senate but not the presidency and VP gets to be the tie breaker. I guess in the scenario where we win the Senate but the Presidem loses, GA is the tipping point state, but I really doubt we are winning AZ's, NC's, ME's or whatever combination of senate seats and while at the same time losing to Trump.

[Zaybay]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

An open seat is easier than defeating a well-funded incumbent.

Senate seats that are up at the same time rarely split. The last time that happened was in 1966 with Strom Thurmond(R) and Ernst Hollings(D), and the reason for the split had a lot to do with the fact that SC would send a D no matter what at the time....unless it was Thurmond.

[Zaybay]

This really shouldnt be that hard a question.

One state has Trump at a range of -15 to -25, and the other has him even.

Collins is growing more unpopular, and is even unsure if she even wants to run again in the first place.

Under the most likely scenario, ME flips before GA. It could happen in reverse, but statistically it isnt likely.

[Zaybay]

This really shouldnt be that hard a question.

One state has Trump at a range of -15 to -25, and the other has him even.

Collins is growing more unpopular, and is even unsure if she even wants to run again in the first place.

Under the most likely scenario, ME flips before GA. It could happen in reverse, but statistically it isnt likely.

Hasn't she been fundraising for re-election though?

Yes, but thats not a sure sign she runs again. Isakson was fundraising before he retired, as was Tom Udall before he called it quits. The fact that shes unsure says a lot about how safe her race is to begin with.

[Zaybay]

If Kemp appoints some lunatic or dolt like Hice, Broun, or Handel, this seat should be an easy pickup for the Dems.

Since when is Georgia an "easy pickup"?

I said in the event he appointed someone in the mold of those three.

Handel is an incompetent campaigner.  Broun and Hice are kooks.

Still not an easy pickup.

[Zaybay]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

She doesn't need those voters. They are already very conservative and the outstate region is only making up a smaller share of Georgia's electorate over time.

Abrams also got trounced in those areas and still managed to lose by only 1%.

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

Perhaps both election results were because of how GA is a notoriously inelastic state rather than Abrams being a bad candidate?

[Zaybay]

With McBath out, it looks like the candidate will either have ran for state office before(Carter, Nunn, etc.) or be a state legislator(Jordan, etc.)

Personally, I would be pretty happy with Carter as the candidate, but the field is pretty wide open.

[Zaybay]

Man, what an odd pick. I guess she has money and is a woman, but besides that I dont see any advantage she offers the GOP. And now Trump's allies are pissed at Kemp's actions and Collins looks likely to jump in.

It looks to be a bloodbath on the R side, one in which Collins likely comes out on top.