Italy 2013: The official thread

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Oscar Giannino,the leader of Fare-Fermare Il Declino (neo-liberal party polling at 2%) apparently had in his CV a Master from the University of Chicago...which he never actually received.

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Oscar Giannino,the leader of Fare-Fermare Il Declino (neo-liberal party polling at 2%) apparently had in his CV a Master from the University of Chicago...which he never actually received.

Not being from the Chicago School of Economics is a big plus in my opinion.

Supporting their ideas and claiming to have gotten a master there when it's not true,is not that big a plus

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The latest "horse" poll shows the Left lead is down to 1.5%

Some of these polls are just beyond ridicolous.

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Anyone catch the line ups this weekend?

Typical PdL,make it look as it's a football match.
A bit like you.


Anyhow a swiss-italian journal interviewed several pollsters,and they all agreed that Bersani's advantage was quite substantial,and the only sure thing was how Berlusconi could never,ever get a majority in both House and Senate.

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I know most of the names there, but who are Casini, Giannino and Montezemolo (that last one sounds like a wine)?

Casini: useless boring hack who is the leader of the Monti-loving 'Union of the Centre' (failed DC wannabies)

Montezemolo: former boss of Ferrari and the employers' federation, leader of a small party which is part of Monti's Scelta Civica. Centre-right and anti-Berlusconi

Giannino: useless moron/fraud leading some even more useless neoliberal party, frauded his resume by saying he had a law degree and masters from Chicago School of Economics. Will win the austerity-loving creeps and nobody else.

Giannino also invented having an economics degree,FWIW.

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I won't lighten the hell up because these elections actually have an impact on the country I LIVE in,and not only one I am interested in.

Anyhow,in 2006 polls stopped before Berlusconi declared on TV that he would remove the ICI tax.
In 2008,most of the polls showed a lead far above 2 points.

Now,polls had been showing Berlusconi steady at 18-19% before the "2 weeks censorship break",so there was no momentum whatsoever,and in these 2 weeks nothing has happened that could have helped him. At the most,I am prepared to see Grillo perform better than expected,unfortunately.

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Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.

Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.

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Last day of campaigning. It's been fun. Hope there are some entertaining stories today.

I wasn't referring to football alone (i actually joked about that as well). I just think its time all of us reallise that this election is a really important one, and start discussing accordingly.

This.

Anyway,floodings are not that severe in Sicily. If they do have an impact,it will be against Berlusconi,since Catania's area is (was) a PdL stronghold.

As for the gender gap,I honestly don't know. My perception is that here it is much smaller than in the US or elsewhere.

Exit polls in 2008: no exit poll showed a 2% lead; I remember the first exit poll said that Berlusconi's lead was somewhere within 2% and 5-6%,and they did not give exact numbers because of 2006's debacle. And again,now it is much different from 2006 or 2008,Berlusconi has no momentum,and there are many alternatives from the two main coalitions.

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My predictions:

Italia Bene Comune : 35%
PD 30%
SeL 4%
Centro Democratico + PSI 1%

Berlusconi: 27%
PdL 19%
Lega Nord 4%
Fratelli d'Italia 2%
La Destra 1%
Others 1%

M5S 21%

Monti: 12%
Scelta Civica 8%
UdC 3%
FLI 1%

Rivoluzione Civile 3%
Fare per Fermare il Declino 1%
Others 1%

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Monti below 10% and thus not getting any deputies in the Lower Chamber?
It would be a huge surprise.

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If Monti's Coalition fell below the 10% threshold, its three lists would be treated like single parties. Hence the new threshold would be 4% (for each party) and the Monti-Montezemolo list would still make it into the Chamber, while Casini and Fini would probably remain out.

The same holds for Berlusconi's coalition if it fell under 20% in the Tuscany and Emilia Senate elections: The new threshold would be 8% for each single party of the coalition and hence PdL would still get some seats, the votes for the other lists of the coalition would be wasted.

Huh,didn't know that.
I thought that if a coalition did not pass 10%,then all the parties within the coalition would authomatically get no deputies.

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Historically,high turnout is good for Berlusconi.

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Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.

Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.

I haven't seen that mentioned anywhere. No where at all. Not here, not anywhere in the press. So please try to explain without being a condescending prick (like you have been this entire time). Many thanks.

To get a majority in the Senate,he has to win Lazio,Puglia,Piemonte,Calabria,Friuli..other than the known battlegrounds of Sicilia,Lombardia,Campania and even Veneto.
So yeah,like Piepoli said in an interview to a Swiss newspaper,it is mathematically impossible for the center-right to win a majority.

Unless of course there is a 15-20% swing today and tomorrow,who knows.

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Checked out some of the polls myself. Italy does not really seem to have invented socio-economic background analysis - its all horse-race top numbers.

Nevertheless, as the Senate minimum voting age is 25, it might be possible to infere on the 18-25 vote by comparing Camera and Senate polling (assuming the pollsters are filtering out non-eligible respondents for their Senate results).

The table below lists the Camera minus Senate differences per coalition for the Feb. 8 Ipsos poll (the only one I have found so far that covers both chambers nationally):

Bersani              -0.7          
Berlusconi          -0.6        
Grillo                 +0.4            
Monti                 +1.3            
Ingroia              +0.1  
others                -0,5        

This indicates that both Bersani and Berlusconi are having problems with the youth vote, which is instead being absorbed by Grillo and, surprisingly, Monti.

It's not just that.
There are quite a few people who vote for Ingroia in the Camera and vote for Bersani in the Senate,especially in battleground regions.

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He's not a politician. I dunno what a post-SB PDL will look like given that it's more personality cult than ideologically-based political party. An ICB/Monti Senate coalition might push Bersani a bit farther on the economic front, since his own track record is decidedly mixed.

There is no such thing as a post-SB PDL.

Just remember that,when Berlusconi had semi-retired and Alfano seemed to have become the new leader,PDL was closer to 10% than 20%.

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Today we will get presidents for both Chambers,one way or another.

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Run-off in the Senate between PD's Grasso and PdL's Schifani.

Grasso was the chief  "Anti-Mafia" attorney,while Schifani has been under process for links with mafia.



Not all parties are equal...

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Grasso is the new Senate Speaker.

137-117 vs Schifani,around 50 blank votes.
A few members of M5S voted for Grasso,in particular the Sicilian ones,who said "if Schifani wins,we can't go back home".

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Who's Meloni? The last trial heat had Renzi boosting PD to a 7-point lead over M5S with PDL in third.

Giorgia Meloni, one of FdI leaders. She wouldn't have Berlusconi's rejection and could bring some populist voters.

She would lose most of the populist voters,actually.
People who are somehow close to PdL,already vote PdL.

At the same time,without Berlusconi,PdL would lose plenty of those populist voters.

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Interesting that both chambers' presidents are from Sicily.

Who was Boldrini's main opponent in the Camera election?

She was elected in Sicily but is not from there.

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It looks like both new speakers are "outsiders" and representatives of the "civil society". They seem to be admirable people (Boldrini apparently worked in the UN against poverty and Grasso was an anti-mafia magistrate). Great move by the PD.

How old are they? Can this be understood as a sign of generational change ?

Boldrini is 51 (and pretty hot,tbh),Grasso is 68 if I am not wrong.

What's important is that they were chosen ahead of Franceschini and Finocchiaro,who were the initial proposals in case no agreement was found with M5S or Monti.

They are not very young but they are pure outsiders,both from politics and from PD (or SEL).

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Berlusconi will never run against Renzi (a charismatic candidate half his age),so any poll as of now is worthless.

M5S's behaviour keeps on being close to ridicolous, saying no to EVERYTHING.
On the other side, PDL trying to appear as the "responsible party" after having occupied Milan's Palace of Justice, and after promising to give back IMU cash to all citizens...and after the last 20 years,it's pretty damn pathetic.

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Still no word on a PdL-favored candidate?

Berlusconi,duh.

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LOL,there won't be new primaries.
Renzi will be the candidate PM,Barca will work within the party to sharply change it,Bersani will be home.

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PDL rebelling against Berlusconi.
Goats roaring against the lion.