Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

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It's an utter mess in Liguria and Umbria.

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Rai projection confirm PD trailing in Umbria. 41 to 40%

Still waiting for La7 though.

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Rai projection confirm PD trailing in Umbria. 41 to 40%

Still waiting for La7 though.

Masia is still holding back...

He's obviously afraid of Mentana

And he might well be,it seems that he got Liguria hilariously wrong.
According to Rai,32% Toti - 30% Paita.

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40% Marini
38% Ricci

According to EMG/La 7

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As for the regional elections: yeah,2 semi-pure tossups (Liguria and Campania) and one race which might be a surprise,Umbria.
PD lost in Perugia last year,because much like in Livorno it had governed it for decades and lost touch with the citizens. Now polls show a 3-5 points advantage for PD's candidate, Catiuscia Marini,but I really don't feel comfortable about it. I have friends there who are long-time PD supporters but will just stay at home,since they are tired of the regional party and leadership.

Ah,all those political journalists talking about a "complete surprise in Umbria"

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EMG projects Liguria for Toti 33-29 over Paita.

And that leftist joke Pastorino (supported by Civati and bitter loser Cofferati) at 7%.

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Why, exactly, are things going so (relatively) badly for PD? What if anything has Renzi done to make himself unpopular?

They're not that bad.
With respect to last year,he has governed for a full more year,with relatively unpopular reforms.
In Liguria,there was post-primary chaos,with a split on the left-wing side.
In Umbria,as I said in an earlier post,the local party has been doing badly for quite a bit. They're only now paying for it electorally.

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More in general,anyway,the PD is also paying general controversies arising at the local level,where often Renzi's "demolishing" of the old politicans hasn't quite worked yet.

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Turnout at 7PM was 39.2%. Voting continues until 11, so there might be a chance of reaching 50%.

http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Regionali-crolla-affluenza-al-voto-un-elettore-su-due-In-Liguria-Umbria-e-Campania-meno-10-657a5efe-4517-4db5-89d3-35e01c4a024b.html?refresh_ce

If I'm translating this article right, it says that turnout is down 10 percentage points (!) overall, with the average being 52% turnout, from a high of 57% in Veneto, 55% in Umbria, Campagnia at 52%, 50% in Puglia, and less than 50% in Tuscana (48.2%) and Le Marche (49.8%).


Sono io giusto?

Yeah.
(But you say "ho ragione?")

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Very poor result for Moretti. Maybe we won't see her anymore now....not that many will cry...

As for the "all political career ends in tears"...Spacca basically left PD to run again in Marche to finish 4th.

More in general,anyway,the PD is also paying general controversies arising at the local level,where often Renzi's "demolishing" of the old politicans hasn't quite worked yet.

Possibly because they haven't yet enough quality potential candidates on the ground to effectively replace the old guard at local level in some areas.

That's part of the story. The other part being that the "old guard" is VERY entrenched locally.

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Mario Mauto takes his tiny party (and two of his three senators) from the governing majority.

They had been voting against the government for a few months.

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The accusations against Marino have always seemed fishy to me. It seems some PD bigwigs were always looking for an excuse to get rid of him. Sad to see him bow down to pressure.

In the past,I agree.
This time,he messed up. It was impossible to go on with him as the "honest mayor fighting Roman corruption" when he had messed up (even though in a much lighter way than other politicians,of course).

Now obviously the same people who contributed to the downfall of Rome (Meloni = Alemanno) will benefit from all this. Pathetic.

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Nice job; the next step would be to give a more detailed breakdown of the constituencies in the big cities.

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And you'd never guess how many people are talking about how this is a "threat to democracy"...

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-34591372

Northern League tries to win the NRa endorsement, or something?

Btw, can anyone explain to me the deal behind Brothers of Italy? What's their niche?

Fascists.
And people who are very rightwing but too nationalists to vote for Salvini,and who don't want to waste their vote on truly fascist parties such as Casapound or Forza Nuova.

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While I mostly agree with your analysis on Alleanza Nazionale,it must be said that Fratelli d'Italia is a much more right-wing version of the AN seen in the last years.
Even poll-wise,it's clear that it is not nearly as popular as AN was,losing some "moderate" votes and some more radical ones who moved to Lega Nord,while attracting some neo-fascists who couldn't vote for Alleanza Nazionale because it had "sold out".

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I have a little request, especially for the Italian posters:

Can you tell me something more about those guys:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrazia_Solidale
Is this party something more than political arm of Catholic trade unions?

It's not even that. It's just a one- or two-people outfit and PD satellite.

This.
Dellai is a centrist who was governor of Trentino,but honestly I didn't even know Democrazia Solidale existed.

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PD managed to hold on and go to the second round in all major cities except for Naples (which is a special situation).

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All hell's breaking loose in Rome...
The mayor's chief of staff resigned,and so did the Budget Assessor. This was apparently caused by a power struggle within the M5S, between the more "technocrat" members on one side, and Raggi and her more trusted companions (now known as the "Raggio magico",the magical ray) on the other.
The new Budget Assessor,hours after being officially announced,said in an interview that he had been contacted by a friend of his,who happens to be a very important lawyer. A lawyer who was Raggi's boss, and who worked together with Previti, Berlusconi's former lawyer,arrested for corruption.

While Raggi was trying to come to terms with it (it happened only 70 days after the elections),media reported that the Waste Disposal Assessor,Muraro,the second most important role after the Budget Assessor and who had already been talked about lengthily due to her previous work, was under investigation for...Illegal waste disposal.
Raggi,Muraro,Di Maio and all of the M5S leaders had denied for over a month that she was under investigation,even though they all knew about it.

Today Di Maio (the one who would be PM if M5S won national elections) said that he "read the email about Muraro but didn't fully understand it"...

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The new Budget Assessor,hours after being officially announced,said in an interview that he had been contacted by a friend of his,who happens to be a very important lawyer. A lawyer who was Raggi's boss, and who worked together with Previti, Berlusconi's former lawyer,arrested for corruption.

Aaaand he's gone too.
Raggi says he "did not fulfill the requirements set by M5S"...

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"Renzi is like Pinochet, the famous dictator from Venezuela"

Di Maio,today.
I am not sure which part is worse.

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  So, whats the likely political fallout if the "no" side prevails?

Hard to say, but Renzi will be in serious trouble - possibly close to a lame duck. He said he wouldn't resign, but Renzi isn't exactly known for keeping his word.

That said, without a voting system that guarantees a clear winner, I doubt many will want to go to the polls.

Well, the "Italicum" electoral law is already in place, and its fate is independent from that of the Constitutional Reform, at least formally.

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I am slightly in favour of the reforms, but the indirect consequence wil be an electoral system in which one single party, even with 30%, can have the majority of seats, after a second round, so also Five Star Movement, and it would be a tragedy.
That's why I prefer that one chamber, the Senate, will remain as now, proportional, so that no crazy leader can have all the power

No. With 30%, there will be a runoff between the top 2, meaning that the winning party will have won a majority.

I don't think the Italicum is perfect, far from it, but this talking point needs to die.

I know how it works.
I can't in any case tolerate that a party like M5s can have absolute majority
Keeping the Senate this nightmare is impossible

You can't design electoral laws just in order to prevent a party from taking power.
If the M5S will win the next elections, it will be due to the ignorance of the electorate and the inability of the Italian political class.
That's the sad truth.

A more efficient government and Parliament, which are the main goals of the constitutional reform, are what is needed in order to fight populisms such as the M5S.

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If Renzi wins the referendum, will he call a new election to try and get a friendly senate ASAP and gain a "mandate"?

Elections in the spring would be a real possibility.

But that's a pretty big if, since "No" is currently leading in all polls.
The consensus is that the race is at 48% vs 52%, with 15/20% still undecided.

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I'm trying to understand this reform, but it seems to me very weird and confusing. So, the senate will be reduced, and the election for congress will have a second round between the two most voted parties in the first round, right?

The Senate will be reduced in terms of Senators and, more importantly, of powers.
It will not be able to kick out the government anymore, and will focus exclusively on local matters, concerning the regions.

Right now, instead, the House and the Senate both discuss the exact same topics, can both give votes of confidence to the government. The only thing differentiating them is the electorate (only those 25 or older can vote for the Senate).
Oh, and also, right now any law has to be approved by both chambers. If even a comma is changed in either chamber, the other one has to approve it from scratch. This really affects the legislative process.


As for the electoral law, yes, the current law has a second round between the two top parties. But a recent agreement between Renzi and part of PD's minority included changes to that.