What state should democrats be most worried about in 2020?

[SN2903]

Which state could be Trump's key to victory/the state democrats need to be most worried about in 2020?

I think it is Michigan or Pennsylvania. I voted for Penn narrowily because outside of Philly the state fits Trump very well. My gut is that Wisconsin votes to the left of Michigan in 2020. I just think that Michigan is state pretty tailor made for Trump's working class message and that outside of Wayne County dems are realy gonna struggle in while Wisconsin is traditionally a little bit more democratic going back to the 1980s.

[SN2903]

If they're on the offense and have a good shot at taking all these states, then Pennsylvania would be one they should be thinking about.

If they are on the defense and hoping to win a close election, probably Michigan.

Solid analysis.

[SN2903]

I voted Pennsylvania, too. It's just hard to see a Democratic victory without PA, and I think PA is quite likely to once again vote more Republican than MI.

I could imagine a scenario where Democrats lose PA, win WI and MI, hold all of the Clinton states, and win the election by either
a)winning FL, or
b)winning AZ and winning a contingent election in the House

But both a and (especially) b seem unlikely.

No way Florida is still to the right of those 3 by a little bit.

[SN2903]

I voted Pennsylvania, too. It's just hard to see a Democratic victory without PA, and I think PA is quite likely to once again vote more Republican than MI.

I could imagine a scenario where Democrats lose PA, win WI and MI, hold all of the Clinton states, and win the election by either
a)winning FL, or
b)winning AZ and winning a contingent election in the House

But both a and (especially) b seem unlikely.

Arizona and FL are still 3-5 +R states right now. If Trump wins all 3 again he is probably on his way to a bigger victory than 2016.