Ban my account ffs!
snowguy716
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Posts: 22,632
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« on: December 15, 2015, 09:00:21 PM » |
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They don't. And they probably won't beyond a small increase in deaths because the predictions are very crude. They pretty much assume beyond 10 years out that things will generally begin working towards the mean.
So the fertility rate in high fertility nations will see a gradual fall towards 2 babies per woman while low fertility nations will see a gradual rise towards 2 babies per woman.
The death rate will generally decrease at a slow rate with the rate of increase decreasing as nations approach the mean.
That's why the UN comes out every couple years with wildly different forecasts (several years ago it was going to 8.9 billion and then flatlining... now because fertility seems to be rising somewhat in developed nations.. it's 11 billion and WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT OMGZ! even as developing nations continue to see rapid declines in fertility)
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