Trump's approval was 52/47 in the 2018 midterm exit polls in Georgia, unless he suffers some kind of approval rating collapse in 2020 relative to the 2018 midterms Trump will carry Georgia and Loeffler will win as a result, candidate quality doesn't really matter in a presidential year, its all going to be about how the presidential race goes in each state.
Lindy Miller and John Barrow got 48 percent (!) in a run off where black turnout plummeted. Put someone like Raphael Warnock against Loeffler and she is going to get pummeled.
Someone tells me you will be the one getting pummeled come 2020, sit down you socialist!
keep in mind he said "The 2018 electorate was more Republican, more white, and older than 2016. "
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/georgia/presidenthttps://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgiabased on the data it wasn't more white. Racial percentages were practically the same. Apparently there were 2% more Republicans in 2018 and 2% fewer independents but who knows how much of that is attributable to sampling error.
On the other hand, 2018 was 8% LESS rural and 5% MORE suburban and 4% MORE urban. That suggests that the Democrats' base was more motivated in 2018 than Trumps' base, which....isn't surprising given that it was a midterm with a Republican in the White House.
Georgia is Lean R, maybe even Likely R. In a neutral environment you'd basically treat it as Republican as you'd treat Minnesota as Democrat, except that Georgia would be more GOP friendly in 2020 than Minnesota is DEM friendly.
Poll
