SirMuxALot
Jr. Member
Posts: 368
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« on: September 20, 2016, 07:34:30 PM » |
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I'm gonna get tired typing the same thing over and over again the next few weeks...
It's an error to try an extrapolate ultra-safe state poll margins into a view of the overall race. Romney won ND by 20%. All except one poll showed him at +14 or less right up to election day.
Oregon in 2012 had three October polls showing Obama only +6 over Romney. That would have argued for a big national swing against Obama (Obama won OR +16 over McCain) and would have suggested a Romney win nationally.
But Obama ended up winning Oregon +12 despite those polls.
Safe state polls just don't often line up perfectly with the actual outcome.
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