Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[SirMuxALot]

Just read their "How It Works" article again.

Only now do I see that this has ZERO exit poll component. This is just yet another pre-election day poll masquerading as actual voting data.

So much for all their hype about breaking the exit poll embargo.

[SirMuxALot]

You didn't already realize that? Only Edison Research conducts those.

Yeah, not until now. I was deceived by their "this is controversial" and their "big networks hold this back" hype.

[SirMuxALot]

Saw more people take the DEM ballot that the PUB one but then again it's FFX County.

This confuses me.  There's separate party ballots for a general election?

[SirMuxALot]

nobody knows how they came up with these numbers
dont take it too seriously as the real betting market hasn't moved today (yes, the people who actually bet real money)

Those of us old enough remember the betting markets went to the high 90s for Kerry in the middle of the day in 2004.  I remember making a good chunk of pizza money day trading the Bush futures from around 10 or so back above 70 in only a few hours.

So history tells us the betting markets don't necessarily have better early information than anyone else does.

[SirMuxALot]

Stopped looking at Slate early in the day.  Did it ever come back with any useful info?

Went to NYT website and never looked back.  NYT live forecast during the counting was the first indicator of what was about to come.  Honestly thought it was a data glitch when it first flipped to Trump > 50% to win.  Betting markets still hung on to Clinton >80% for a long time after that.