AL-SEN: It’s Tuberville

[SnowLabrador]

The Republican primary will most likely be interesting. The general election, not so much.

[SnowLabrador]

Even then, I don't think Jones would win. Perhaps if this was a gubernatorial election, maybe. Jones is done.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably worse. I think he loses 57-42 or so.

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, Doug is done. I think he loses 56-42.

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, looks like Byrne is running. If he wins the primary, the seat is his.

[SnowLabrador]

Even if Roy Moore is the nominee again, Doug Jones will still lose.

[SnowLabrador]

To all the people saying Jones is DOA because its a presidential year. if Moore is the nominee its a pure tossup if not Lean D.
Moore won by 4 points while Romney won by 22 in 2012 BEFORE Moore was outed as a pedophile
Moore is damaged goods hes got a good standing in the AL GOP but the rest of the state DESPISES him if Moore is the nominee than this will be a close one. also thank god brooks isn't running hes like Roy moore without being a pedophile hes a evangelical extremist

This is a national race, not a state one. I think the much more useful metric is Jones's margin of victory in the special, which was a measly 1.6%.

[SnowLabrador]

Here's a question: How many of you think that Doug Jones would have won if control of the Senate had come down to this race in 2017? I'm guessing some Republicans who sat out would've held their nose and voted for Moore if it meant preventing the Democrats from gaining control of the Senate.

Oh, certainly not. Jones only won by 21,924 votes in our timeline. Were that one seat enough to decide control, Moore would have won. We saw how motivated Republicans were in red states after Kavanaugh.

[SnowLabrador]

Jones has a +6 approval rating, which is more than Manchin does (+5) and he managed to win not only in 2018 but in 2012 even as Obama got thumped in WV. Granted, Alabama doesn’t have the same lingering remnants of Democratic legacy that have helped Manchin, but I still wouldn’t count a popular incumbent out completely. I doubt he loses by as much as Heitkamp, especially not with Moore as the nominee again. Then he might even be a slight favorite, or at least the race would be a toss-up more or less given the presidential year turnout. After all, is it not possible that some of the Alabama Republicans turning out for Trump might just leave their Senate ballots blank rather than vote for Moore?

Manchin's much more of a fixture in WV politics. He was a popular governor. Jones had never ran for anything prior to his Senate run. All four of the Senate Democrats who lost in 2018 had more of an electoral history than Jones does.

And you do realize that in a state like Alabama, higher turnout HELPS Republicans, right?

I have to agree with you. Jones is going to lose, and he's going to lose badly.

[SnowLabrador]

Hopefully he is the nominee. Then McConnell has to defend him, even if he does end up winning.

[SnowLabrador]

Roy Moore, if nominated, would beat Jones this time. The dynamics of a special election are completely different than those of a Presidential election.

[SnowLabrador]

Doug Jones raised over $2 Million in Q3.

https://www.alreporter.com/2019/10/08/doug-jones-raises-more-than-2-million-in-third-quarter/

For a state like Alabama, that's pretty good.

Money doesn't buy you love, ask Claire McCaskill

Or better yet, Heidi Heitkamp. She raised something like five times more than Kevin Cramer, but still lost to him by 11%.

[SnowLabrador]

Doug would not benefit at all from running away from his beliefs. Ask Donnelly and McCaskill and those other "not crazy Democrats".

[SnowLabrador]

Is it possible Sessions splits the "typical conservative" vote with Byrne and Merrill, thus allowing for a Moore vs. Tuberville runoff?

Nah. I think it's more likely that Sessions just doesn't matter that much. Doesn't change my overall prediction that Tuberville will be nominated.

Sessions is damaged goods after Trump fired him last year.

[SnowLabrador]

Unfortunately, Sessions does not look to be redeemed by Corona.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1262792853010427904

Congratulations Senator Tuberville.

[SnowLabrador]

Tuberville will win by at least 15 points. Safe R.