PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26

[ctherainbow]

I'm moving this from likely D---> safe D. It's over.

I meannnn... I'm used to you being pessimistic, Bagel, but come on.



I think I feel safe enough calling this Wolf 60% at this point.

[ctherainbow]

Call me biased because I live in NEPA, but knowing PA demographics pretty well off the top of my head, I have a hard time believing that Elk and Cameron counties would flip before Susquehanna, Snyder, or Lycoming.   

[ctherainbow]

Haven’t one or both voted Dem in the recent past? And aren’t they sparsely populated to begin with?

Elk voted Obama in '08, then Romney in '12, so Elk I could see flipping first.  That's my bad; NWPA is the quarter of the state I've researched the least.  Cameron is much more Republican, though, on par with Lycoming and Susquehanna Counties when it comes to the past few presidential elections, so I would think they would flip together.  We'll have to see.  The way things are looking, Wolf might even convince some Potter and Juniata County residents to vote for him.