Decision 2008: Crossroads

[KaiserDave]

Note: I intend for this to end up with an alternate 2008 result. I find that the plan for this TL is unrealistic at times, and I will have to butterfly things into or out of existence at times for things to work. But once I get the desired setting, I work to be as realistic as possible. Enjoy! And I encourage and will love suggestions and speculation. This starts just after the 2008 RNC.

Decision 2008

The 2008 Presidential Campaign is well underway, with the blistering summer of August and July turning to autumn cool of September and October. Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama have both unofficially secured their party's nomination, and Senator Obama has already spoken to an ecstatic crowd in Denver. The nation is at a major crossroads, with a financial meltdown occurring, and lengthy wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Senator Obama and Senator McCain are both now tasked with spreading their plan, and gaining the trust of voters. Decision 2008 has begun.

Sarah Palin in Wilkes-Barre

Barack Obama-265
John McCain-219
Toss-up-54

[KaiserDave]

Decision 2008

September's colorful trees turn to October' dead leaves, and as the 2008 Election roars on, the nation continues to face an immense crisis. The Dow Jones has suffered immensely, losing 500 points upon the collapse of Lehman Brothers, while the nation's economy collapses, Senator Obama and Senator McCain are making their case to the American public. At the same time, Senatorial candidates and House candidates are also campaigning, in local coffee shops and lunches, rather than national television.

Rasmussen Poll: Hagan Leads by 6

The North Carolina Senate race has been increasingly leaning to Democrats, incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole has been rapidly losing ground after running what was called the "most negative ad of all time." Which was described as slanderous, and for which she received a cease and desist letter from Kay Hagan. Earlier, Rasmussen had had Dole up by 11, indeed the race has changed. Most polls have given Senator McCain a 5-7 point lead in this state, Senator Dole is obviously not holding on to his coattails.

Early Voting Begins, Obama Leads by 5

Early voting has commenced in numerous states. Early voting usually leans to Democrats, early indicators of early voting have pointed to Obama improving over John Kerry, though not to the extent that some Democrat pollsters and analysts had hoped and predicted. The RealClearPolitics Average has given Obama a 5-point lead. In Pennsylvania, Obama leads by 6 and in Florida, Obama leads by 1. In Virginia, another crucial Bush state that Senator McCain needs to win, Obama leads by 2. One consolation prize for Senator McCain, is a 1-point lead in Ohio. As well as a 9 point McCain lead in Missouri and Montana. In Indiana McCain leads by 4. The race nationally definitely leans to Obama, though he may miss his double digit leads of June and May. The McCain campaign however, is definitely still in this. Since the announcement of Governor Palin as the Veep candidate, McCain has risen among women, and now only trails Obama by 6 among women. He has also gained a point among independents.

Bush, Obama, McCain meet on economy

President Bush facilitated a meeting with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and of course Senators Obama and McCain. With a 700 Billion Dollar bailout still floundering in the Senate and House. The meeting appeared productive, with Senator McCain largely leading an active discussion on amending the bailout. After the meeting, McCain hosted a press conference on the steps of the Capitol Building. He announced he would be working to introduce an addition to the bill, which already includes 700 billion to purchase toxic assets and re-stabilize the economy. The addition is essentially a direct tax holiday for below 50k earners. Polls imminently after this nationally televised conference showed McCain go up 2 points among independents. A recent Gallup Poll had Obama up by 4. The race is just outside the margin of error, edge for Obama.

Palin Excels on Couric Exclusive

Governor Sarah Palin appeared on a multi-day interview with CBS reporter Katie Couric. After a rally in St. Louis, Sarah flew in to the interview. She had a folksy charm for every answer, and on guns, energy, and abortion, she was especially strong. On foreign policy, she appeared to be struggling with the topics of Georgia, Russia, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Though when struggling, she was able to come back with Alaskan charm, and always bringing things back to her and Senator McCain's status as a maverick. For a moment, she stuttered when asked about what print media she read to gain policy knowledge. Before bringing up the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, and the Telegraph, a British paper. She also spoke about local Alaska papers, that she always read and she recently did a questionnaire for, always bringing things back to the Maverick theme. As soon as the interview was over, Governor Palin held a rally of oil workers and community members in Colorado. Senator McCain Cincinnati, and Charlotte suburbs. Senator Obama and Senator Biden have also been tearing about the country, holding massive rallies in Charlotte, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Des Moines. The Gallup Tracking Poll has Senator Obama leading by 5. Though the CBS Tracking Poll maintains that Senator McCain leads by 3.

Barack Obama-269
John McCain-226
Toss-up-43

[KaiserDave]

Decision 2008

October starts with the Presidential and Vice Presidential debates, with millions watching, the debates may define the campaign. The University of Mississippi is hosting the first debate between Senator Obama and Senator McCain. The debate will focus on the economy, gas prices, and primarily foreign policy. In the week before the debate, Senator McCain sat through numerous senate committees on the economy, as well as a town hall in Hazleton Pennsylvania, and rallies in Toledo Ohio and Manassas Virginia. Senator Obama was in Miami, Reno, and in Detroit. Senator Biden has rallied in Scranton and Billings Montana. Senator Clinton rallied in Nashua New Hampshire and Alexandria Virginia. Senator Chuck Grassley held a rally in Cedar Rapids for the McCain campaign, election day nears.

Presidential Debate: McCain Wins!

The first Presidential debate at the University of Mississippi was characterized by several things. The 90-minute debate went over a range of issues, but primarily foreign policy. The war in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Russia and Georgia. As well as Iran and North Korea. Gas Prices, the collapse of Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, and rising unemployment were also discussed. McCain spoke with clarity, and spoke right with his eyes on Senator Obama. McCain spoke with experience and knowledge, and emphasized his knowledge and his firm commitment to soldiers abroad. Senator Obama said that for Senator McCain, the war had no foreseeable end, while Senator McCain tried to rebut by mapping out his path to a stable Iraq and Afghanistan, and defeating terror. On the economy, Obama attacked President Bush, and Senator McCain for failing to the act to stop the collapse of the financial sector, this attack on Bush is seen by voters as very effective, though Senator McCain was able to effectively respond by emphasizing his immediate reaction to the crisis through the Senate's recent deliberations with the President. An instant reaction poll of undecided voters, 41% said it was a draw, 32% said McCain won, and 22% said Senator Obama won. 5% were undecided.

Vice Presidential Debate: Biden wins, Palin does decently

The Vice Presidential debate had over 70 million viewers, and Senator Biden came off looking more qualified, and a competent could-be President. However, Governor Palin exceeded low expectations. She came off as likable, and an effective communicator to families across middle America. On energy, Sarah Palin definitely was more effective, though on most other issues Biden conveyed a stronger message. However, Governor Palin appeared as more likable to more voters. A snap reaction poll judged that 51% thought Biden had won, 30% thought Palin won, 13% thought it was a draw. 6% were undecided. A CNN Tracking poll released after both debates had Senator Obama leading by 4.

2nd Presidential Debate: A Draw

The 2nd Presidential Debate was most certainly a draw, with both candidates are their best. The town hall style debate started with both Senator Obama and Senator McCain agreeing on Meg Whitman and Warren Buffett both as suitable Secretaries of the Treasury, to manage and rebuild a crashing economy. Senator McCain rebuffed claims that he wanted drastic cuts, and said that he would in fact increase spending on defense and veteran's affairs, while other departments with have to have spending freezes, to rebuild the struggling American economy. Senator McCain also went on to criticize Senator Obama's support for certain earmarks, which was well received. Senator Obama however, was able to effectively make a case that the policies of President Bush and Senator McCain had failed to stop the collapse. He said that if Senator McCain was truly a maverick, he would not have been afraid to sound the alarm to President Bush. A CBS Snap Reaction poll said 31% felt Obama had won, 30% thought McCain had won, and 39% said it was a tie. A Fox News Poll released that nationally, Senator Obama leads by 6.

3rd Presidential Debate: A Draw? McCain wins?

The 3rd and final Presidential debate was held at Hofstra University. The main focus of the debate was the economy. Senator McCain started the debate by going after "failing Washington power brokers, from both parties." He said too many politicians were "putting party before country." And said that his campaign was the only one that put "country first." He said that as his President, he would introduce a tax cut and investment stimulus and that he would aim to keep unemployment below 7%, and grow the GDP after the current slump through tax relief. Senator Obama agreed on an investment and tax cut stimulus, but differed on spending. He said that while Veterans spending should be increased, a defense spending increase would be fiscally unsound. The debate continued, with Senator McCain trying to connect with the average voter through the avatar of "Joe of the Plumber." A CNN Snap Poll said that 38% of those surveyed thought that Obama had won and 41% felt McCain had won. 19% thought it was a draw. The debates are over, and there are just a few weeks until election day.

RCP Average: Obama +2

Barack Obama-268
John McCain-212
Tossup-58

[KaiserDave]

Decision 2008

With the conclusion of the debates and all the interviews the voters must now make their decision. The race has been a bumpy one. Obama held dominant leads throughout May, June, July, and most of August. The RNC gave McCain a solid bump, and the pick of Sarah Palin as Vice Presidential candidate consolidated the GOP base, and allowed Senator McCain to gain among women. Obama rebounded after the RNC, and regained a strong lead. But after a series of strong McCain/Palin debate performances, the race has tightened. Polls range from a 6 point lead for Obama (ABC) to a 2-point McCain lead (Gallup).

Fmr. Secretary of the State Colin Powell endorses McCain

Former Secretary of State, Head of Joint Chiefs, and National Security advisor, statesman Colin Powell has endorsed Senator John McCain in an interview on CNN. He praised Senator McCain's foreign policy knowledge, and his support for veterans and the military. He described Senator Obama's plan for Iraq and Afghanistan as "a plan that would allow growth of terror groups, and would surrender a critical position for the United States and our allies." He also praised Senator McCain's experience while bashing Senator Obama for no major accomplishments and lack of experience. However, when pressed on the Vice Presidential candidates, he said he preferred Senator Biden. He said "Governor Palin, while someone with good intentions, is not prepared to be President of the United States, and lacks foreign policy knowledge. But when it comes to the Presidential candidates, there is no contest. Senator John McCain is the better candidate."

 

Battleground States

The race is a tight one, but national vote will not decide the election. Battleground states will. States like Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Montana, Nevada, and Missouri will decide this race. Here are the RCP averages in each state.

Pennsylvania-Obama +5
Michigan-Obama +12
Minnesota-Obama +9
Wisconsin-Obama +11
Iowa-Obama +10
Nevada-Obama +4
Colorado-Obama +2
Virginia-Obama +1
New Hampshire-Obama +7
Ohio-McCain +2
Florida-McCain +1
Indiana-McCain +5
North Carolina-McCain +4
Montana-McCain +8
North Dakota-McCain +11
Missouri-McCain +7
Arkansas-McCain +14
Nebraska (CD2)-McCain +3

RCP Average: Obama +1

Barack Obama-248
John McCain-219
Tossup-71

[KaiserDave]

Another McCain 2008/Dem Wave Downballot timeline?

Gonna stay quiet, but do you know how I can make a house map for Atlas?

[KaiserDave]

Decision 2008

Hello and Good Evening, I'm Wolf Blitzer, and this is the moment we've all been waiting for. After almost two years of campaigning, from the Ames Straw Poll to Senator McCain on SNL. It's 6:00 on the East Coast, and this is election night in America.

Polls have closed in Kentucky, and the battleground state of Indiana. We're saying that the state of Indiana is too early to call. A crucial battleground state, a state that Senator McCain must win. We are projected Kentucky for Senator McCain.

7:00

It's 7:00, and now we can make more determinations about this critical election. We are projecting the state of Georgia for Senator John McCain, and we are projecting the state of Vermont for Senator Barack Obama. We are saying Virginia, South Carolina, and Florida are too early to call. Additionally, we are reclassifying Indiana to be too close to call. As it stands, Senator McCain has 23 Electoral Votes, and Senator Obama has 3. However, this is very early.

7:30

It's 7:30, and we're saying that West Virginia will go to Senator McCain, no surprise there. We're also saying that the critical swing state of Ohio, is too close to call. Additionally, if we look at the state of Indiana, Senator McCain leads by 5. It should be noted however that numerous Democratic counties have not yet come in.

8:00

We have a range of calls to make. First, for Senator McCain, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas. This increases his Electoral Vote total to 106. For Senator Obama, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington D. C., Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, and the state of which he is Senator, Illinois. This brings Senator Obama to 95 electoral votes. Missouri, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire are too close to call. In Indiana, Senator McCain leads by 2. In Virginia, Senator McCain leads by 3. In both states, the remaining vote is from Democratic constituencies.

[KaiserDave]

Decision 2008

Hello and Good Evening, I'm Wolf Blitzer, and we're back with continuing coverage of the 2008 Presidential Election. It's 8:30 on the East Coast, and we have poll closings in two states.

8:30

We are saying that the state of Arkansas will go to Senator McCain. This was a state that in June, that could have become a tossup, but in the end it will go to Senator McCain. We are also saying that the pivotal, must win state of North Carolina is too close to call. We have Senator Obama at 95 Electoral Votes, and Senator McCain at 112 Electoral Votes.

9:00

It's 9:00, and we have many poll closings. We are saying that New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin will all be going to Senator Obama. Senator McCain we are projecting has one Kansas, Louisiana, Arizona, his home state, and Wyoming. Additionally, Senator McCain has won 4 of Nebraska's five votes. One of them is too early to call.  Furthermore, we are saying that Minnesota, Colorado and New Mexico are all too early or too close to call. When it comes to outstanding states such as Florida, Virginia, Indiana, and Missouri. They are all too close to call, all of them have 80%-90% of precincts reporting. Obama leads narrowly in Florida, McCain leads narrowly in Indiana, Virginia, and Missouri. Though the Missouri lead is likely to grow overtime, unless something unforeseen occurs.

10:00

Polls have closed in 8 more states, we have state calls and two critical state projections. First, we are saying that Iowa is going to Senator Obama. We are also saying that Idaho, Kansas, and Utah are going to Senator McCain. Oregon, Montana, Nevada, and North Dakota are all too early to call. But now we have a critical state projection....

SENATOR McCAIN WINS INDIANA
We saying that Senator McCain will win the state of Indiana, a critical swing state they he had to win to be competitive tonight, we are also saying that New Hampshire, a smaller state, will go to Senator Obama. Some people thought Senator Obama would make history easily tonight, but right now, Senator McCain is on 164 Electoral Votes, and Senator Obama is on 151 Electoral Votes.

11:00

We're back, and we're even closer to a decision. Senator Obama has taken the lead, with the calling of California, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Minnesota and New Mexico. Senator Obama now leads with 243 Electoral Votes. However, we can call four tossup states, right now.

McCAIN WINS NORTH CAROLINA, MISSOURI, OBAMA TAKES NEW MEXICO
We are saying that Senator McCain will take Missouri, North Carolina, Montana, and North Dakota. Senator McCain stands on 196 Electoral Votes. But we're still watching Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, part of Nebraska, and Pennsylvania.

[KaiserDave]

Decision 2008

It's midnight and the race to be President is too close to call, but we can call three crucial battleground states.

12:00

We are projecting that Senator McCain will carry Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. These were critical battleground states, but even this is not enough for Senator McCain to be President. He currently stands at 259 Electoral Votes, and Senator Obama is at 244 Electoral Votes. But this is definitely a massive call.

McCAIN CARRIES OHIO, VIRGINIA, FLORIDA
Senator Obama needs to carry at least two of the outstanding states, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. He leads in Pennsylvania, albeit narrowly. But trails narrowly in Nevada and Colorado. It should be noted that he has carried Nebraska's second congressional district.

12:50

It's 10 minutes to 1 in the morning, and the race is too close to call. Both campaign headquarters, in Chicago and Phoenix are all waiting on results. Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona has been riling up the crowd
in Phoenix, while in Chicago, nobody is speaking. However, we can make two critical calls.

McCAIN TAKES COLORADO, OBAMA TAKES PENNSYLVANIA
We are calling Pennsylvania for Senator Obama, the critical swing state will go the Senator from Illinois. African American turnout in Philadelphia overpowered McCain's impressive showing in rural areas and suburbs of Philadelphia. But Senator McCain will take Colorado. His impressive showing in the Denver suburbs will give him the victory there, the election will come down to the state of Nevada.....

[KaiserDave]

MAC'S THE ONE

Senator John McCain carries Nevada, defeats Senator Barack Obama

In the early hours of Wednesday November 5th, at approximately 2:01 AM, CNN Projected the state of Nevada, and thus the Presidency, for the underdog candidate, the maverick, John McCain. Victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana propelled Senator McCain and Governor Sarah Palin to this improbable upset. Senator Obama has not yet conceded, and is waiting out an automatic recount in Nevada and Florida, where the margin is within .5% in both states. While Americans rejected Senator Obama who represented an immense historic candidate as the first African American President. However, Americans still made history night. Not only did they elect John McCain, but they also elected Governor Sarah Palin as Vice President, the first female Vice President. Democrats across the country were struggling to realize what has happened, but as we look at the exit polls, we can see a clearer picture.

Women: Obama +4
Men: McCain +5
White: McCain +19
African American: Obama +90
Latino: Obama +23
H. S. Graduate: McCain +5
Some College: McCain +3
College Graduate:McCain +4
Postgraduate: Obama +12
Independents: McCain +2
Democrats: Obama +77
Republicans: McCain +83

Victory among Independents, and college graduates propelled McCain to victory in suburbs AND rural areas across the nation, by minimizing his losses among women, he continued to victory. However, as the totality of California comes in, it was possible, even likely, that Obama will have a popular vote lead. And now that we have those numbers, we can see that Senator McCain will lose the popular vote, though this irrelevant to him winning, though it may affect his mandate in the eye of some.

Barack Obama: 63,392,586-49.14%
John McCain (WINNER): 63,011,387-48.85%

McCain (WINNER)-273
Obama-265

Senatorial Races

However, down ballot, Democrats were very successful, they picked up Senate seats in Alaska, Oregon, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire. They also retained every seat up for election. Democrats stand at 56 seats, however, this doesn't include Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman, both who caucus with Democrats but are independent. Or Arlen Specter, Republican from Pennsylvania, who is likely to defect to the Democrats, so this would give them 59 seats in the US Senate, not easy for Senator McCain to work with.

Democrats: 56 (+7)
Republicans: 42 (-7)
Independents: 2

House Elections

Democrats in control!

In the House Elections, Democrats gained whereas Senator Obama did not. Democrats gained 18 seats in the House of Representatives, winning in seats from Alabama, to Idaho, to Virginia. That means in the House of Representatives there are 254 Democrats and 181 Republicans. Nancy Pelosi will continue as Speaker of the House, and John Boehner will be Minority Leader. This represents a major victory for Democrats, though democrats are having trouble celebrate, considering they lost what was for a long time an easily winnable election.

[KaiserDave]

President-Elect John McCain

Recounts in Nevada and Florida Conclude, McCain holds on

The automatic recounts in Nevada and Florida, triggered by a margin within half of a percentage point, have concluded. In Nevada, the McCain lead shrunk by 349 votes, but this had no bearing on the result, in which McCain has now officially won by 6,493 votes. In Florida, the McCain lead shrunk by 3,468 votes. However in Florida, McCain's new lead is at 66,387 votes. Secretaries of State across the country have gotten ahold of official results, there is no more doubt, Senator John McCain has won the election. However, Senator Obama has won the popular vote by a few hundred thousand votes.

Obama Concedes Gracefully

Obama spoke from his campaign headquarters, conceding the election to President-Elect John McCain. Flanked by Senator Joe Biden and Michelle Obama, he gave an eloquent and graceful concession speech. Already applauded as one of the greatest of our time. He wished the best for President-Elect McCain and Vice President-Elect Palin. He said he looked forward to working with the President-Elect as both Barack Obama and Joe Biden will return to the Senate. He also emphasized that his campaign was not about him, or any other individual, but about the American people. And the American people made a choice. However, there was a slight undertone of pain in his voice at times. This election was a winnable one, so that's to be expected. But millions across the country feel like a chance at something truly historic was missed. Nevertheless, Senator Obama will return to the Senate, and Senator McCain is ascending to the White House.

Lieberman is Secretary of State Nominee

Joe Lieberman, a close colleague of President-Elect John McCain, has been named nominee to be Secretary of State. The Independent Senator from Connecticut was long speculated to be in the cards for the Vice Presidency, but in the end Governor Sarah Palin was the choice. Joe Lieberman, a staunch ally of Israel, will be the nations first Jewish Secretary of State. This would also open up a Special Election for the Connecticut Senate seat Joe Lieberman currently holds, which could be the first special election of the McCain era. Joe Lieberman said,

"I proudly accept this nomination from the President-Elect, and I look forward to my confirmation process, and I hope to be America's leading diplomat, and to further serve this great country."

President-Elect McCain meets with President Bush

President George W Bush meet with President-Elect John McCain today, and the soon to be First Lady Cindy McCain. They had photographed discussions in the East Wing, before a photo op in the rose garden. President Bush said they had a "frank and friendly conversation on a smooth transition, to make sure this great country gets the best." He also said he was, "incredibly excited to see what John, Sarah, and Cindy were gonna get done." John McCain also took the time to announce that Rick Davis, top campaign official and personal friend, would be his Senior Counselor. President Bush, and President-Elect McCain also met with Senator Obama, to discuss how they can bring the country together after such a close election.

Vice President-Elect Palin meets with DeMint, Coburn

Vice President-Elect Palin had a lunch with arch-conservative Senators Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn. All three are now definitively heads of the right of the Republican Party. Governor Palin can be seen as a link to the other end, as she is Vice President to Senator McCain, who is definitely a moderate in the party. Vice President-Elect Palin said she was, "building bridges across the party, and gettin' ready to fix our economy for Main Street and all those hockey moms and teachers who I was sent to represent." Senator DeMint said that, "We discussed numerous issues, and we all came to agreement that solid conservative principles are what is gonna guide this nation to prosperity." It is unknown whether President-Elect McCain authorized this meeting, though a leak from the Transition team says it was not instructed, and that Governor Palin went on her own, only after telling Rick Davis and not getting authorization. Some said that Governor Palin was a political move, and that it couldn't work in governing, we shall see.

[KaiserDave]

President-Elect John McCain

Approval Ratings of President-Elect and Vice President-Elect

Gallup has began a tracking poll for the approval of President-Elect McCain and Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin. The poll was released on the 16th of November. These are the numbers as of now.

President-Elect John McCain Approval
Approval: 54%
Disapproval: 29%
Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin Approval
Approval: 41%
Disapproval: 33%

As expected, President-Elect McCain is experiencing the start of a honeymoon, however, Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin proves more divisive. While she is widely popular among most Republicans, outside of these people, she is viewed more skeptically. Only 42% say she is prepared to be President, while 84% say President-Elect McCain is prepared to be President. It seems that while the conservative base of the Republican Party love Governor Palin, not much else do. Moderate Republicans, and Democrats of all stripes are not supportive.

McCain Cabinet Nominees

Sen. Joe Lieberman-Secretary of State
The Independent Senator from Connecticut and longtime McCain ally, has been nominated for Secretary of State.

Mayor Rudy Giuliani-Attorney General
The popular New York City Mayor has been appointed to lead the administration's efforts to reduce crime and possibly prosecute white collar criminals in the aftermath of the crisis.

Mitt Romney-Secretary of the Treasury
Governor Mitt Romney, who stewarded the Massachusetts economy for some time has been nominated to lead the Treasury Department. The 2008 Republican Primary runner-up has been chosen to rebuild the economy. Reports also say billionaire Warren Buffett, someone who endorsed Obama, might consult with Governor Romney.

Gov. Mike Huckabee-Secretary of Health and Human Services
The third place finisher in the Republican Primary, and the former Arkansas Governor has been nominated to manage the Health and Human Services Department. The nation's health system is in disarray, his task would be to fix it.

[KaiserDave]

Unlikely outcome but I enjoy this anyway

Thanks!

[KaiserDave]

President-Elect John McCain

Approval Ratings of President-Elect and Vice President-Elect

Gallup has released the 2nd Tracking Poll for approval ratings of the new Administration. This was released on the 25th of November, the bailout bill continues it sit through committee hearings in Congress, and President-Elect McCain has announced several cabinet nominees. He also announced that Secretary of Defense Bob Gates would stay on.

President-Elect John McCain Approval
Approval: 56%
Disapproval: 31%
Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin Approval
Approval: 43%
Disapproval: 36%

More people are starting to take sides, the President-Elect and Vice President-Elect approval ratings ticked up, but as did disapproval tick up. None of the President's cabinet appointees are very controversial, with the possible exception of AG Nominee Rudy Giuliani, who Senator Tom Harkin, blasted as "a phony lawyer with phony qualifications." Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Joe Lieberman, and Bob Gates have gone over much more smoothly.

Palin Thank You Rally in Jacksonville

Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin held a Thank You rally in Jacksonville Florida. The crowd was very large, and Vice President-Elect Palin said to the crowd:
"America chose patriotism, America chose independence! The real America spoke, and they spoke loud and clear! For our flag, our constitution, or values."
Governor Palin spoke with and shook hands with many in the large crowd of supporters. However, some signs were spotted that could be described as racist caricatures of Senator Obama. Palin's rallies have often including attacks on Senator Obama that called him a terrorist, an Arab, or a Muslim. The Senator, who still has a bright political future ahead, has still got to experience racist attacks.

[KaiserDave]

Thoughts on Cabinet noms?

[KaiserDave]

President-Elect John McCain

Approval Ratings of President-Elect and Vice President-Elect

Gallup has began a tracking poll for the approval of President-Elect McCain and Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin. The poll was released on the 28th of November. These are the numbers as of now.

President-Elect John McCain Approval
Approval: 53%
Disapproval: 30%
Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin Approval
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 37%

McCain Cabinet Nominees and Appointees

The long awaited, emergency relief bill for the collapsing financial institutions has passed the Senate after months of deliberations. Ted Stevens and Harry Reid emerged from lengthy negotiations and presented the agreement to the press. The 700 Billion Dollar bailout deal is a temporary fix to stop total economic implosion. President Bush has said he fully intends to sign, President-Elect McCain announced his support, Vice President-Elect Palin made a bizarre comment on main street, hockey moms, and seemed to say she opposed the bill.

[KaiserDave]

President-Elect John McCain

DOW DROPS 600, UNEMPLOYMENT AT 7.3%

Despite the passage of TARP and further bailouts to rescue the financial sector, the market has only gotten worse. The Dow Jones plummeted 600 points on December first. Unemployment rose to 7.3%, the highest since 1992. The US economy continues to collapse, and the global economy is also doing badly, the British stock exchange has fallen 1,000 points over the past year, and the German stock exchange has fallen 3,000 points over the past year. President-Elect McCain will have a massive task ahead of him. However, with massive Democrat majorities in both houses of congress, the President-Elect will have trouble. The President-Elect supports some form of a stimulus, as do Democrats. Conservative Republicans are very much against a stimulus. President-Elect McCain wants to include a sweeping corporate tax cut, while Democrats are opposed. President-Elect McCain wants capital gains tax cuts, Democrats are opposed. President-Elect McCains wants to eliminate earmarks, Democrats are ambivalent. President-Elect McCain wants vast defense spending increases, Democrats are unenthusiastic. Additionally, if it seems that a Republican President is only negotiating with Democrats, he could face a Conservative revolt from his own party.

Approval Ratings of President-Elect and Vice President-Elect

Gallup has began a tracking poll for the approval of President-Elect McCain and Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin. The poll was released on the 4th of December. These are the numbers as of now, after the unemployment rate rose to 7.3% and the Dow fell 600 points on the first of December, the President-Elect's approval dropped, likely his affiliation to President Bush. The Vice President-Elect has not been as effected. 

President-Elect John McCain Approval
Approval: 50%
Disapproval: 33%
Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin Approval
Approval: 47%
Disapproval: 39%

McCain Cabinet Nominees and Appointees

Jeb Bush-Secretary of Veteran's Affairs
The Former Florida Governor has been tapped to lead the Veteran's affairs department, a department of national and personal importance to President-Elect McCain, as he is indeed a Veteran. He satisfies the base with solid conservative credentials, and the President-Elect with a history of focus on the VA.

Vice President-Elect Palin says bailout is "unconstitutional"

Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin has a history of making odd and contradictory statements, this was no exception. As part of her thank you tour, she stopped in Lynchburg Virginia, where she spoke to supporters. When asked about the bailout by a supporter firmly against it, she said
"I think it's wrong, I really do. When we think about this, you know we gotta think about main street. And this only helps New York wall streeters. This isn't what our founders and fathers thought was right. It's unconstitutional." This is flagrantly contradicting the President-Elect's position on the bailout. But conservatives on Fox News were eating it all up. Sean Hannity and guest Senator Jeff Sessions both voiced support for the Vice President-Elect's comments. The President-Elect has not commented, but Rick Davis said, the Vice President-Elect,
"speaks her mind. That what we want in Washington, that's what Americans voted for."
Vice President-Elect Palin was asked by the press when greeting a long line of supporters. She didn't give a coherent response. President-Elect McCain had a public appearance with the Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin, in Fairfax Virginia. They spoke to government workers and took questions.

[KaiserDave]

President-Elect John McCain

President-Elect promises Afghan surge

President-Elect John McCain promises a troop surge of at least 15,000 soldiers in Afghanistan within the first 100 days of his Presidency. He said that as Iraq troop levels decline, troop totals in Afghanistan must drastically increase. He said that Al-Qaeda's presence in Afghanistan has only increased, and that Taliban activity and expansion is a direct threat to the United States. This was said in his first Press Conference as President-Elect.
"As we slowly, yes, slowly, withdraw from Iraq, we must transfer troops to Afghanistan, where the Taliban is only gaining strength, and Al-Qaeda is training new fighters every day, and preparing to use them against the United States."
President-Elect McCain also left the door open for a troop presence in Iraq for the next few decades saying.
"A troop presence in Iraq is entirely necessary, and honestly inevitable. After my first term I intend to have active combat troops out of Iraq, but I intend to have several bases, and several thousand soldiers to maintain stability, stop the rise of extremist groups and work to establish a functioning democracy. Iraq won't become a stable, non violent democracy within two terms of President McCain, it will require decades of steady American leadership."

Approval Ratings of President-Elect and Vice President-Elect

Gallup has began a tracking poll for the approval of President-Elect McCain and Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin. The poll was released on the 21st of December. The President-Elect maintains a steady approval rating, though the Vice President-Elect is viewed with skepticism and disdain outside conservative circles.

President-Elect John McCain Approval
Approval: 51%
Disapproval: 35%
Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin Approval
Approval: 49%
Disapproval: 41%

McCain Cabinet Nominees and Appointees

Sam Nunn-Secretary of Homeland Security
The longtime Georgia democrat with solid national security credentials has been tapped by President-Elect McCain to lead the Homeland Security Department, the first major democratic appointment.

Governor Napolitano appoints Flake

The very popular Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona, has the duty of appointing Senator McCain's replacement. Her term expires in 2010, and she has chosen to pick his replacement. By Arizona state law, she must pick a Republican. She has picked Jeff Flake, longtime congressman since 2003 for the 6th district and strong fiscal conservative. He has been chosen to fill the President-Elect's seat. The President-Elect commended the governor and called it a "great choice." Representative Flake said he was "honored" and "immensely humbled by the trust placed in me. Though I will never fill the foot prints of such a great American patriot and hero." Jeff Flake will serve until a special election in around October. Which he said he will contest. Representative Flake voted against TARP and is a fierce opponent of earmarks.

[KaiserDave]

President-Elect John McCain

800,000 JOBS LOST, UNEMPLOYMENT AT 7.8%

December turns to January, and the economy continues to destroy itself. The unemployment rate has risen to 7.8%, and 800,000 jobs have been lost. The worst of the so called "Great Recession" has arrived, but some are saying that the economy is in for even greater pain. Senator Tom Harkin spoke in Ames, saying that "this is yet another reason why we need an effective stimulus now! No more inaction, enough bailouts and favors to the wall street bankers, time to relieve the struggles of ordinary Americans." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid spoke to reporters, saying:
"It's clear the Democratic Senate Majority will be leading the drafting of a stimulus package, to invest in growth in the American economy. We welcome Republicans who want to assist in this goal." Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin said to supporters in Akron Ohio.
"Americans don't want Democrats to be dictating the terms of the economy! They don't want socialism and bureaucratic no names telling them what to buy and sell. Tearing up the constitution, we don't want that!" The President-Elect's office has no commented, but leaks from inside the office say they are extremely concerned about the Vice President-Elect's bizarre comments.

Approval Ratings of President-Elect and Vice President-Elect

Gallup has began a tracking poll for the approval of President-Elect McCain and Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin. The poll was released on the 12th of January. As the inauguration approaches, Americans are more willing to approve of President-Elect McCain, but the economy's terrible performance continues to hurt the approval of the President-Elect.

President-Elect John McCain Approval
Approval: 50%
Disapproval: 37%
Vice President-Elect Sarah Palin Approval
Approval: 50%
Disapproval: 44%

CBS Poll: 51% of Americans "Unexcited" about McCain Admin

A CBS Poll said 51% of Americans were unexcited about the prospects of a President McCain, definitely troubling news for the President. While this does not characterize their opinion of the President-Elect, it displays the lack of confidence of the Republican President-Elect, to work with a vastly Democratic congress. Some analysts say this is because of the prospects of the nation's first black President going away. Nevertheless, the mountain for the President-Elect to climb is steep to gain public confidence.

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN

John Sydney McCain III and Sarah Louise Palin have been inaugurated as President and Vice President of the United States of America. John McCain has become the 44th President of the United States. And Sarah Palin has become the first female Vice President in the history of the Republic. It was sunny and bright, and the day began with the oath of office and ended with the Battle Hymn of the Republic. Senator Barack Obama, his wife Michelle, Senator Hillary and President Bill Clinton, as well of course as President George W Bush, First Lady Laura Bush, and President George HW Bush all attended this historic occasion. On this historic day, America's new leaders were sworn in, and we put our trust in them. President McCain's inauguration speech emphasized America's special place in the world, putting country and patriotism before party and politics. He spoke at length about the struggle of veterans and the ailing economy, and he spoke to bipartisan unity to fight for a better America. The McCain presidency has begun.

Sen. Lieberman confirmed 91-8

Senator Joseph Lieberman of the state of Connecticut was confirmed overwhelmingly as Secretary of State by the United States Senate, his confirmation was not a surprise, he is liked by his fellow Senators and viewed as competent and experienced in the realm of foreign policy. Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell (R) is charged to replace him. Both Former US Ambassador to Ireland Tom C Foley and Lt. Governor Michael Fedele have been named as possible replacements. The Senate now stands at only 99 Senators, 56 Democrats, 42 Republicans, and one Independent. The Senate is likely to become 56-43-1.

Former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn was also confirmed 92-7 to be the Secretary of Homeland Security.  And Heather Wilson, nominee to be Energy Secretary, was confirmed 83-16. More high stakes nominees Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Lisa Graham Keegan, and Rudy Giuliani are scheduled for slightly later.

Pres. McCain signs lobbyist restrictions

In one of his first acts as President, President McCain signed an Executive Order prohibiting White House Aides from working to influence the administration for two years after their resigning or dismissal. President McCain spoke to the organized press corp, saying, "Lobbyists in Washington oftentimes hold more sway then the American voter. I was elected on a promise to shake up Washington, and break up the power brokers grip on our government. This is a step towards doing that." This move has been applauded by the media and most members of congress, including Majority Leader Harry Reid. Vice President Palin applauded the Executive Order as, "a maverick move, and it's what we're gonna do in the White House."




Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 37%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 43%

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



20,000 Soldiers Deployed to Afghanistan

President John McCain has announced that 20,000 new American soldiers will be deployed to Afghanistan. As promised during the campaign, he will authorize a troop surge to Afghanistan to support the offensive against the Taliban, and to destroy Al-Qaeda cells in Afghanistan. American F-15 strike fighters will launch from Kyrgyzstan against Al-Qaeda targets. Senators Graham, Coleman, Nelson (Ben), Nelson (Bill), Biden, Clinton, and Obama have already praised the President for this decisive action, and have rallied around the surge in Afghanistan. Senators Sanders, Byrd, and Feingold were more skeptical of the troop surge.

Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl XLIII

In a game in which the President of the United States and proud Arizonan flipped the coin at the start, the Arizona Cardinals pulled off a surprise victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh lead 20-7 into the fourth and final quarter. But for Arizona fans the fourth quarter was magical. Their stellar defense kept Pittsburgh off the board, and they scored an outstanding 16 points in the fourth quarter. Arizona star Larry Fitzgerald made a 64-yard touchdown reception and lead his time to an astounding 23-20 victory. President McCain was ecstatic after the game, visibly thrilled after the Cardinals victory.



Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 40%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 46%

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



Tom Foley appointed CT Senator

American Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley has been appointed Connecticut Senator to replace Secretary of State Joe Lieberman. The outsider has been chosen by Connecticut's Republican Governor Jodi Rell said Tom "was a maverick, like our President. And we need more outsider mavericks in Washington." This makes the Senate complexion to 57 Democrats (including Arlen Specter), 42 Republicans, and 1 Independent. Tom Foley was airlifted in to help confirm Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Heather Wilson, each one was confirmed overwhelmingly. Rudy Giuliani, who's confirmation is uncertain, has not yet had a hearing.  

Stimulus Debate Rages on

The debate over the stimulus has continued into mid February. After passing the house with Democratic and Republican support. Senator Jim DeMint has lead a fierce conservative opposition to any economic stimulus, save sweeping corporate tax cuts. Senator Coburn, Senator Sessions, Senator Cochran, Senator Burr have all spoke against the stimulus. Vice President Palin has also announced her sympathies to the conservative opposition. President McCain has said that he wants a 10-point corporate tax cut, and numerous direct tax cuts. Senator Harry Reid has said that while the stimulus includes numerous tax relief programs, no corporate tax cuts will occur.  Senator Reid, Senator Boxer, Senator Stabenow, and Senator Nelson (Bill) have been in negotiations with President McCain, Vice President Palin has not been in attendance, she's only been holding speeches in deep red counties, as well as meeting with Senator Hutchinson, Coburn, and Sessions. Senator Coleman (R-MN), Senator Collins (R-ME), and Senator Murkowski (R-AK), have been leading negotiations with Democrats. It is unlikely however, that the conservative filibuster can hold up, with the Democratic caucus united. However, Senators Feingold and Sanders however, have been skeptical of the stimulus as it is.




Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 41%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 46%

[KaiserDave]

How soon will Foley have to face a special election?

Foley and Flake will face special elections around November, Wilson's seat (Heather) in April.

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



STIMULUS PASSES 66-34

The roll call vote in the Senate passed the 625 Billion Dollar Stimulus Package overwhelmingly, despite conservative objections and opposition. After lengthy negotiations with Republican Senators Coleman, Snow, and Collins, Democrats agreed to substitute some of the direct spending with tax cuts. Senators DeMint, Sessions, and Coburn railed against the stimulus in floor speeches, but after Senators Graham, Coleman, and Snow voiced their full support for the package, the passage appeared assured. President McCain is expected to sign. Vice President Palin has not had a public comment recently, though the media is clamoring for a press conference from the Vice President. Senator DeMint said that he was "disappointed, frustrated, and let down that President McCain let down his conservative supporters, and this parties values by supporting government spending and deficits over economic freedom."

Heinrich leads by 17 in NM-1

In the house seat vacated by Secretary of Energy Heather Wilson (NM-1), Democrat Martin Heinrich leads his Republican opponent by 17 points. This analysts say, is a hint to disastrous elections in the future for Republicans. The Albuquerque centered district was held by the moderate Heather Wilson, before, but now, with political winds blowing against the current administration, Democrats look like strong favorites to take this seat back.

Spending Battle Begins: Democrats Hold all the Cards

The battle over Federal Spending has begun. President McCain has attempted to follow a key campaign promise, and Press Secretary Ed Gillespie relayed the President's aims to the media. The President has made a request to Congress, to include the following:
-70 Billion Dollars to the Department of Defense (621 Billion→691 Billion)
-5.1 Billion Dollars to the Department of Veteran's Affairs (38.9 Billion→44 Billion)
-Elimination of Earmarks
-10% cuts to the Departments of the Interior, Commerce, Labor, Justice, and EPA
-5% cut to the Department of Health and Human Services

The Press Secretary said, "through eliminating pork barrel spending and tightening our belts, we can save our budget from joining Lehman and Bear-Sterns. We must be responsible with taxpayer dollars, we must be accountable to Americans. The President's plan will in fact reduce the deficit, and save billions."

Democrats have objected to the President's plans, Senators Baucus, Leahy, and freshmen Warner and Udall (Mark) have given floor speeches rejected the President's plans. Senator Leahy said:
"The President's cuts are wholly unnecessary. While I have great respect for the President, and I want him to succeed, this cuts are unnecessarily unfair. To increase spending so drastically for the Defense Department, unaudited I must add. And to cut spending in Commerce for instance, where it is needed so much, is absolutely asinine. Senate Democrats will not pass this budget." Louisiana Senate David Vitter, up for reelection in 2010, voiced a quite opposition to Commerce and Labor Department cuts. Senator Blanche Lincoln, gave an emphatic opposition to EPA cuts to the media in the Capitol hallways. Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer, and Pat Leahy have been in negotiations with moderate Republicans Coleman, Collins, and Murkowski on the issue of the budget, as well as the President of the United States. Some have hypothesized the President may get some kind of a Defense Spending boost in exchange for reversing his cuts into spending increases.





Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 43%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 47%

[KaiserDave]

Roy Blunt was in the House in 2008

Oops

[KaiserDave]

PRESIDENT McCAIN



Giuliani Rejected 62-38

In the midst of the stimulus and spending debates, cabinet confirmations had taken a long time. Nominees Romney and Huckabee were confirmed with bipartisan majorities, but AG nominee Rudy Giuliani was instantly denounced by Senators Harkin, Feingold, and Boxer. A Bipartisan majority of the entire Democratic caucus as well as Senators Murkowski (R-AK), Collins (R-ME), and Foley (R-CT) rejected the nominee as unqualified and unfit. Analysts have also speculated that they are concerned about their reelection. Senator Foley is already knocking on doors for his special election in November, and Senator Murkowski is up for reelection in 2010.

Unemployment reaches 9%

The unemployment rate has reached 9%, in another catastrophic blow to the American economy and by extension the McCain Presidency. Economists are already saying the Stimulus Package passed by President McCain was too weak and short on direct spending. Press Secretary Ed Gillespie said,
"The economy is hurting, for everyone from Pittsburgh Pennsylvania to Pittsburg Kansas. We are gonna have to see the stimulus take effect, and joblessness will fall, we are also calling out Democrats for their obstructionism. They have refused to even consider the business tax cuts that the President has proposed." Democratic Senator Diane Feinstein shot back,
"We proposed 1 Trillion Dollars in direct economic relief, and the White House scoffed. We have a 59-seat Senate majority, and frankly we ought to be listened too."



Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 44%

Vice Presidential Job Approval
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 49%