2011 State Elections in Germany (user search)
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Author Topic: 2011 State Elections in Germany  (Read 237465 times)
Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« on: November 07, 2010, 03:30:59 PM »
2011 will be a more intresting year than 2010. We will see  6 elections for State Parlaments.

Here are the Dates (and the current Government)

20 March 2011 Saxony-Anhalt  (CDU/SPD)
27 March 2011 Baden-Württemberg  (CDU/FDP)
27 March 2011 Rhineland-Palatine  (SPD)
22 May 2011 Bremen  (SPD/Greens)
18 September 2011 Berlin  (SPD/Left)
Autumn 2011 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern  (SPD/CDU)

For the CDU is the result in Baden-Württemberg very important. If they lose this conservative State, then it could be a very bad year for them. Maybe we see in the election in Berlin the first time the Greens as the strongest party and a Mayor from them.

It is possible that it gives more elections. NRW haven't a stable government and in the States with a CDU - Green coalition (Hamburg and Saarland) I haven't a good feeling.

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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2010, 12:40:31 PM »
A new poll for Baden-Württemberg

Allensbach 19.11.10 (Result 2006) 

CDU  38,0 %  (44.2 %)
SPD  22,0 %   (25,2 %)
Greens  26,0 %  (11,7 %)
FDP  5,0 %  (10,7 %)
LEFT  5,0 %  (,1 %)
Others  4,0 %  (5,2 %)

This would be a disaster for the CDU/FDP government.


A new poll for Germany:

Emnid 21.11.10

CDU/CSU  32%
SPD  26%
Greens  20%
FDP  6%
LEFT  10%
Others  6%

No big changes to the last polls. The Greens are still in a all time high.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2010, 03:42:45 PM »
Quote from: Hashemite on November 22, 2010, 02:04:36 PM
I so wish Canadians could be as intelligent as Germans. Sigh.

lol at the FDP at 5% in Baden-Württemberg. Isn't that one of their strongest states?

I don't know the Germans are more intelligent as the Canadians Wink

You are right that Baden-Württemberg is one of the strongest states of the FDP. In the early years of this state they had a FDP-Prime-Minister.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2010, 08:06:38 AM »
A new poll for Berlin

Forsa 27.11.2010 (Result of 2005)

CDU  18 %  (21,3%)
SPD  26 %  (30,8%)
GREENS  28 % (13,1%)
FDP  3 %  (7,6%)
LEFT  16 % (13,4%)
Others  9 % (13,7%)

No big difference with last weeks. The left win a little bit.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2010, 04:14:32 PM »
New polls:

Baden-Württemberg,  Infratest dimap (02.12.2010)

CDU  39 %
SPD  18 %
GREEN  28 %
FDP  5 % 
LEFT  5 %
Others  5 %

No big changes. The Greens still in a all-time-high.


Germany, Infratest dimap (02.12.2010)

CDU/CSU  32 %
SPD  27 %
GREEN  21 %
FDP  5 %
LEFT  10 %
Others  5 %

Germany, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (03.12.2010)

CDU/CSU  34 % 
SPD  27 %
GREEN  20 %
FDP  5 %
LEFT  9 %
Others  5 %

CDU wins a little bit, but the CDU/CSU-FDP coalition have problems
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2010, 03:05:10 PM »
New polls:

Hamburg,  Infratest dimap (13.12.2010)

CDU  22 %
SPD  43 %
GREEN  19 %
FDP  4 % 
LEFT  7 %
Others  5 %

I think the SPD can order the champagne for the victory celebrations.


Germany, Emnid (12.12.2010)

CDU/CSU  35 %
SPD  25 %
GREEN  19 %
FDP  5 %
LEFT  10 %
Others  6 %


The first poll since many weeks, the Greens are under 20%, but 19% very good too.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2010, 03:19:23 PM »
Quote from: Old Europe on December 14, 2010, 02:35:09 PM
Quote from: DL on December 14, 2010, 01:22:10 PM
When has the SPD EVER formed a coalition with the CDU when they could get a majority just with the Greens?

Bremen, 1995-2007.

That is true, but in the moment I don't see that the SPD wants a coalition with the CDU. When the polls are the final result it will give 100% a red-green coalition.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2010, 12:48:18 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on December 19, 2010, 10:00:18 AM
FORSA (BERLIN STATE ELECTION)

27%    (-4) SPD
25% (+12) Greens
19%    (-2) CDU
15%    (-1) Left
  4%    (-4) FDP
10%    (-1) Others


I think the difference between SPD and the Greens will be bigger in the next weeks. Wowereit is still very popular in Berlin. I see the Greens only on a very good second place, but this would be a very good result.

To the bad polling numbers of the FDP. I'm sorry to say that they will survive this crisis, but for Guido I haven't a good feeling Grin
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2010, 02:11:45 PM »
Quote from: Franzl on December 20, 2010, 12:48:53 PM
Would you vote SPD or Green in Berlin, Hans?

I'd even vote Green tactically..Smiley

It is good that I don't live there Grin

I very like Wowereit, but I'm not a friend of the Berlin-SPD

Renate Künast is not my favourite Politician of the Greens, but the Berlin-Greens are Greens what I really like.

In this moment I don't know, but it is lean Green Wink
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2011, 01:52:32 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on January 04, 2011, 02:17:37 PM
New Bavaria state elections poll by Emnid for the "Bild":

45% (+2) CSU
18%  (-1) SPD
16% (+7) Greens
  6%  (-4) FW
  5% (+1) Left
  5%  (-3) FDP
  5%  (-2) Others

That's just the "Guttenberg-effect". If the elections are today and the CSU-candidate would be Seehofer, the CSU would have difficulties to get 40%.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2011, 04:00:52 PM »
Quote from: Franzl on January 06, 2011, 03:13:29 PM
I think these numbers are about right with Seehofer. I'd expect 50+ for Guttenberg.

I don't see it so. It is possible when Guttenberg is Candidate that the CSU get 50% or more (btw I can not understand why he is so popular? He stands for nothing and he is just a self-promoter). But when Seehofer is the the candidate again, are 45% an illusion. It would be a surprise for me the CSU get more votes with Seehofer, like in the last election.

OK, the Freie Wähler never get such a result like 2008 and the FDP would have problems with the 5% threshold and this speaks for a better result for the CSU. But I doubt that this could offset the losses to the nonvoters. Seehofer's only a joke and many CSU-voters are very disappointed.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2011, 05:08:09 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 06, 2011, 03:09:32 AM
Greens back to the lowest level in half a year according to a new Emnid poll:

35%  (+1) CDU/CSU
27%  (+4) SPD
17%  (+6) Greens
10%   (-2) Left
  5% (-10) FDP
  6%   (nc) Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

The numbers of the Greens are going slowly down, but 17% is still very very good for them. The SPD is recovering a little bit of time to their low point at the last election, but I'm not sure this is just a snapshot or goes further. If this is the result of the next election, then we see another CDU/CSU - SPD coalition. Black/Green is not possible at this time.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2011, 10:49:34 AM »
My prediction for tomorrow:

SPD  45%
CDU  25%
GAL  15%
FDP  4.5%
LEFT  5,5%
Other  5%
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2011, 12:19:28 PM »
lol CDU Grin Grin Grin

I think we will see for some years no CDU/Green coalition anywhere in Germany
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2011, 02:52:50 PM »
Quote from: Χahar on February 20, 2011, 02:37:37 PM
FDP performance is a bit surprising.

I think this are mostly protest voters from the CDU. The FDP have ca. 4% voters who vote them every time in Hamburg and with some former CDU voters its no problem to get 6%.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2011, 08:16:08 AM »
Quote from: Plenipotentiary for Difficult Matters on February 23, 2011, 06:59:00 PM
Just started making a set of Hamburg maps; will incorporate Shilly's pretty map of pretty into it so it compares better with the ones done of 2008 and 2009.

It will be the first set to include the Pirate Party. What colour should they get?

I think orange is Okay, but the color of the Pirates is black Grin
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2011, 02:09:46 PM »
My result for the Wahl-o-mat:

Baden-Württemberg:

81/96 Left
77/96 Pirates
75/96 Greens
75/96 SPD
51/96 PBC
48/96 NPD
42/96 CDU
36/96 FDP

Rheinland-Pfalz:

65/88 Left
64/88 Free Voters
62/88 Greens
57/88 SPD
49/88 Pirates
47/88 CDU
43/88 NPD
40/88 FDP

No surprises. It seems that the Free Voters are in R-P a little bit more left than in Bavaria.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2011, 05:03:55 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on March 02, 2011, 02:00:21 PM

New Forsa Baden-Württemberg poll out today and my scenario is now much more likely:

39%  [-5.2] CDU
26% [+0.8] SPD
19% [+7.3] Greens
  6%  [-4.7] FDP
  4% [+0.9] Left
  6% [+0.9] Others

Tie between CDU-FDP (45%) and SPD-Greens (45%).

Am I right when I say that CDU-FDP would still be favored in a tied situation, because of the electoral law that would give the CDU a lot of Überhangmandate ?

No. In Baden-Württemberg it gives Ausgleichsmadate. When the CDU get 10 Überhangmandate, the other parties get 10 mandates more.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2011, 02:02:33 PM »
Quote from: Franzl on March 13, 2011, 01:16:35 PM
We have too many idiots here, it seems.

Do you speak about yourself?
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2011, 10:30:29 AM »
Quote from: Muammar Gadaffi loves me like a son on March 20, 2011, 09:49:55 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on March 20, 2011, 08:38:23 AM
Bayern

46% CSU
17% Greens
17% SPD
  7% Freie Wähler
  4% FDP
  9% Others

Absolute Majority for CSU.

On the bright side, a 3% swing could lead to a Green/SPD/Free Voters coalition. Cheesy

46% is very bad for the CSU. oK, it's better than the last election, but still very low.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2011, 12:32:15 PM »
No surprise. A boring result in a boring State.

btw, the result for the Greens is very good. It is the best ever in Saxony-Anhalt. We will see the NPD come over the 5%. Normally the numbers of the Nazi will be better in the evening.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2011, 01:30:30 PM »
ARD 19:19

CDU  33.1
LEFT  23.6
SPD  21.5
GREEN  6.4
FDP  3.8
NPD  4.8
Others  6.8
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2011, 01:37:25 PM »
ARD 19:33

CDU  32.9
LEFT  23.7
SPD  21.5
GREEN  6.8
FDP  3.9
NPD  4.7
Others  6.5
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2011, 01:39:18 PM »
ZDF 19:32

CDU  32.6
LEFT  23.7
SPD  21.5
GREEN  6.7
FDP  3.8
NPD  4.8
FREE VOTERS  3.1
Others  3.8
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30
« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2011, 01:41:19 PM »
We must wait for the final result to know the NPD is over 5%.
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