2013 Elections in Germany

[Hans-im-Glück]

Since 2008, I've voted CDU in elections at most levels (except for 1 or 2 defections to the FDP in my...stupid...teenage years.)

I think I've honestly turned into a social democrat, more or less, but I still believe in Merkel's competence and...with some reservations...tend to value her overall leadership at EU level. But ideological considerations, and the feeling that black-yellow doesn't stand for anything, are leading to me considering going Green. Problem is I really don't think Steinbrück would be any good.

Glad there's still 5 months to go...

Hey   I was some time not active in this Forum, but I can't believe what I read. Franzl want to vote the Greens!!!!!!!! This can't be the reality. I must live in something like the Matrix

[Hans-im-Glück]

My result for the Wahl-o-mat (Bavaria)

DIE LINKE 86 %
GRÜNE     78 %
PIRATEN   77 %
SPD          70 %
FDP          55 %
FREIE WÄHLER   55 %
NPD         42 %
CSU         42 %

[Hans-im-Glück]

http://www2.fr-online.de/bundestags-wahlhelfer/index.php

Greens 72%
SPD 62%
Left 55%
FDP 34%
CDU/CSU 10%

FDP is a little bit to high, but the rest is OK

[Hans-im-Glück]

http://kandidatencheck.spiegel.de/

My Result for the constituency Hof/Bavaria (The FDP-candidate did not part)

Left 22/24
Greens 21/24
SPD 19/24
AfD 14/24
CSU 7/24

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today is the Bavarian TV-debate. Seehofer (CSU) vs. Ude (SPD)

If someone wants you can see it on www.br.de It is 20:15 German time

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today is the Bavarian TV-debate. Seehofer (CSU) vs. Ude (SPD)

If someone wants you can see it on www.br.de It is 20:15 German time

I will watch it.

Seehofer and the CSU will probably get ca. 50% again in the state election.

Ude also supports the wrong football club in Munich or Bayern ... TSV 1860 München - not Bayern München ...

It's not very brave to predict a CSU victory in the  election ;-) The CSU could sell heroin to children and would still win.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Just voted

In my small town last time there was this result:

CSU  38%
SPD 28%
Free Voters 10%
Greens 4,5%
FDP 5,5%

I don't expect great changes

[Hans-im-Glück]

other 6% (who? AfD didn't even run.)

Ödp, Bayernpartei, Republikaner, NPD etc.

This result is no surprise. 49% for the CSU is only an average result for them. 21% for the SPD is better than the last time, but still horrible- The Free Voters have a good result and the Greens have a bad result. They where in the polls only 2 weeks much better. To the FDP I can only say Good Bye

[Hans-im-Glück]

other 6.4 ... heh. On those totals the ÖDP is probably ahead of the Left, no?

This wouldn't be a surprise for me. The ÖDP is a very active Party ans I expect them at 2,5%

[Hans-im-Glück]

However the first vs second votes comparison, that is worth something.

On 82 precincts

First vote CSU 34.8, SPD 32.5, Greens 11.8
Second vote SPD 37.1, CSU 34.8, Greens 10.4

First and second vote can be in Bavaria very different. Look at my constituency (Kulmbach/Wunsiedel)
http://www.landkreis-wunsiedel.de/data/wahlen/wahlen/Landtagswahl_2013/479000_000093/index.html

[Hans-im-Glück]

Wow; Mr Schöffel is not personally popular.

I was looking for a random provincial partial result, and Wunsiedel just to the south is over 80% counted and currently at
CSU 55.9 / 55.6 (+8.6 / +7.
SPD 17.9 / 19.5 (-0.1 / +0.7)
FW 12.8 / 11.1 (-2.0 / -3.1)

The others are really irrelevant; the Greens remain at around 4%, the FDP had just over 5% list votes last time and is in eightth place for the list and 10th (out of 11) for direct right now.

Schöffel is from Wunsiedel and Aures is the former SPD Mayor of Kulmbach. This maks the differnce ;-)

[Hans-im-Glück]

This is the result of my hometown:

Erststimmen nach Wahlvorschlag


WV-Nr

Partei

Erststimmen

Prozent


1 Schöffel, Martin ( CSU )  839 49,15%
2 Aures, Inge ( SPD )  504 29,53%
3 Baumgärtner, Martin ( FREIE WÄHLER )  69 4,04%
4 Artmann, Brigitte ( GRÜNE )  92 5,39%
5 Nagel, Thomas ( FDP )  27 1,58%
6 Meist, Christa ( DIE LINKE )  43 2,52%
7 Bittermann, Ehrenfried ( ÖDP )  6 0,35%
8 Krause, Rainer ( REP )  7 0,41%
9 Bestehorn, Harald ( NPD )  20 1,17%
10 Roppelt, Markus ( BP )  20 1,17%
12 Ludwig, Georg Dieter ( DIE FRANKEN )  43 2,52%
13 Hanakam, Bernhard ( PIRATEN )  37 2,17%

Zweitstimmen nach Wahlvorschlag


WV-Nr

Partei

Zweitstimmen

Prozent


1 CSU  631 37,45%
2 SPD  491 29,14%
3 FREIE WÄHLER  271 16,08%
4 GRÜNE  79 4,69%
5 FDP  37 2,20%
6 DIE LINKE  33 1,96%
7 ÖDP  7 0,42%
8 REP  14 0,83%
9 NPD  14 0,83%
10 BP  22 1,31%
11 FRAUENLISTE  8 0,47%
12 DIE FRANKEN  40 2,37%
13 PIRATEN  38 2,26%

[Hans-im-Glück]

And I'm starting to wonder how likely a scenario would be in which the FDP is eliminated from Bundestag, while the AfD enters parliament at the same time. I suppose the average FDP voter (and especially the average FDP protest voter) also maintains some sympathies for the AfD...

this never happend.  The FDP dosn't exist in this Moment. This are all CDU/CSU voters

[Hans-im-Glück]

My understanding is that Merkel has ruled out an alliance with AfD post election.

A Gouverment of Merkel with the AfD you will never see.

[Hans-im-Glück]

My gut feeling is that today's election actually will hep FDP to get over 5% next week.   The logic is obvious, that CDU/CSU voters which are inclined toward CDU/CSU/FDP seeing that FDP falling below 5% in Bavaria are more likely to vote FDP tactically next week.

Maybe, but it it also possible that  the rest of Germany don't want that the Bavarians have to much power and vote against the CDU/CSU/FDP Government.

Who known?? We will see it next week