2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[wbrocks67]

Lol

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1039670145847885824

I'm more interested at what whacko at the National Journal thinks the recent polling shows this in the margin of error. Brown has led every legit poll by like 15 on average.

[wbrocks67]

Wondering when CNN is going to release their GCB from their poll....

[wbrocks67]

The key is always Trump's approval rating.

He lost by 1 in PA-07. Monmouth has his approval at -2. So..... yeah. That sample might be a bit R-leaning, and it still has Wild up 2-6.

[wbrocks67]

Kim has the edge. Monmouth also had him up.

[wbrocks67]

I'm a bit surprised people are just writing off OH-12. Balderson barely squeaked it out, and this fall, Dems will have the turnout edge with someone like Brown probably having huge margins in the Senate race. It's definitely plausible for O'Connor to win.

Not to mention, I wouldn't be surprised if the Franklin County margin was even bigger for O'Connor now than it was before after Balderson's remarks sink in. When he said it, it was only like a day before the election.

[wbrocks67]

The CA-39 poll also has Trump at 47% approval despite him only getting 43% of the vote in 2016, so... yeah. I find it hard to believe Cisneros is already underwater in a Clinton +8 district.

[wbrocks67]

VA-2 Garin-Hart-Yang: Luria (D) 51 (!!!), Taylor (R-inc) 43

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/embargoed-until-tuesday-5am-democratic-poll-shows-elaine-luria-overtaking-rep-scott-taylor-after-ballot-forgery-scandal

Was not expecting this. Figured Taylor would be down a few. Did Northam win Taylor's district last year?

[wbrocks67]

Already thought Sherrill would likely win but if the best Webber has is an internal of his opponent +3 then.... yeah

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1047462602786234370

Makes sense. DCCC just started airing $$$ there

[wbrocks67]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

I never look at one poll in a vacuum. I do, however, look at this. Dem lead at its lowest level in more than a month.

(Again, those are minor swings compared to what we saw in 2016, but it still means fewer seats for Democrats.)

The Dem lead is about +8, which is basically the average its been for a year

[wbrocks67]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/poll-kavanaugh-midterms-885940

Politico/MC: GCB D+10 (48-38)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Where’s the Kavanaugh bump? I was told by Beltway pundits that we were going to get a red wave because of the least popular Supreme Court nominee in history.

And just like that... pundits are wrong again. My problem I think with these pundits though is that they are so assured they are right, and then get defensive when presented with evidence that they were wrong.

[wbrocks67]

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/taylor-leads-luria-by-7pts-in-va-cd-2-preserves-lead-among-most-committed-voters/

VA-2 CNU Wason: Taylor (R-inc) 50, Luria (D) 43

The result isn’t ridiculous, but them having Kaine only up 47-42 in this seat is.

Yeah, I mean I'm not surprised if Taylor is winning but there's no way Kaine is only up +5... Northam even won by 4 and Stewart is an abomination

[wbrocks67]

PA-07

Susan Wild (D) 49%
Marty Nothstein (R) 35%

http://www.wfmz.com/news/pennsylvania/republicans-make-gains-in-second-69-newsdesales-university-poll/807473989

[wbrocks67]

A poll that has 22% undecided this close to the election should be questioned with some scrutiny.

[wbrocks67]

That CNBC poll was conducted by POS (aka, the geniuses behind Rasmussen polls).

Oh. Major grain of salt. Not to mention it's an RV poll 3 weeks out from the election.

[wbrocks67]

Statewide polling has been awful. It also doesn't look as of right now as if we're getting any NBC/Marist polls this week, despite it being 3 weeks out.

[wbrocks67]

http://www.nydailynews.com/mc-nws-pa-7-muhlenberg-college-poll-nothstein-wild-silfies-20181017-story.html

PA-7 Muhlenberg: Wild (D) 48, Nothstein (R) 41

Wild has led by 8, 13, and 7 in the most recent polls.

[wbrocks67]

Amy McGrath has the enthusiasm edge and just raised nearly $4 million. Dem turnout in that district in the primary was bananas. But the new WaPo story trying to say her chances are downgrading? Oh ok.

[wbrocks67]

I truly think no pollster truly knows how this election is going to turn out. Turnout is a complete tossup. If that NBC/WSJ chart ends up coming to fruition, with Latinos and young people being extremely motivated, that could change a LOT. And likewise, if the opposite happens.

[wbrocks67]

PA-07

House: Susan Wild (D) 49%, Marty Nothstein (R) 36%
Governor: Tom Wolf (D) 54%, Scott Wagner (R) 31%
Senate: Bob Casey (D) 53%, Lou Barletta (R) 35%

http://www.wfmz.com/news/lehigh-valley/democrats-looking-good-in-3rd-poll/818430241

[wbrocks67]

Washington Post battleground districts poll: Dems 50 - Reps 47

Was Dems 50 - Reps 46 two weeks ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/battleground-house-districts-remain-close-in-new-poll/2018/10/22/e6c77a32-d63e-11e8-aeb7-ddcad4a0a54e_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_battlegroundpolls-705am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

[wbrocks67]

Rohrabacher up 2 according to Monmouth. Wow.

Should be noted that Rouda is +2 in the Dem "surge" model.

Not to mention, isn't this a Clinton district? They have Trump's approval at +8, not to mention nearly 50% *strongly* approve, so....

[wbrocks67]

Washington Post battleground districts poll: Dems 50 - Reps 47

Was Dems 50 - Reps 46 two weeks ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/battleground-house-districts-remain-close-in-new-poll/2018/10/22/e6c77a32-d63e-11e8-aeb7-ddcad4a0a54e_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_battlegroundpolls-705am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Reading the article they have a big key state buried in. Indies who dislike both parties (a group that Trump won big in and the GOP won by 14% in 2010 and a similar margin in 2014) favors democrats by 15%

Right, so basically undecideds right now who hate both are leaning towards Ds, which makes sense. So undecideds are likely to break with Ds.

[wbrocks67]

Also getting a Monmouth CA-48 poll tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if the lack of funds for Rohrabacher (both internal and external) has taken effect.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

No one is donating to Rohrabacher's campaign yet he's winning? Doesn't seem to jive. Not to mention *85%* of Rs and Ds being interested is ludicrous. That # is way too high.

The bottom line is that Trump barely got, what, 48% in this district? And now 48% *strongly approve*? That's insane.

[wbrocks67]

https://winwithjmc.com/archives/8551

GA-6 JMC Analytics: Handel (R-inc) 49, McBath (D) 45

(Gov race here: Kemp 47, Abrams 45)

That's closer than I expected.

I never understood why people thought Handel would do better here than she did in the special election which took place before Trump tried to repeal healthcare. Equally well, I could understand.

I'm triggered by that Handel +4 result.