Bullfinch Group: AK, CA, HI, OR, WA

[wbrocks67]

Alaska
Trump (R) 55%
Biden (D) 36%
Unsure 8%

California
Biden (D) 59%
Trump (R) 34%
Unsure 7%

Hawaii
Biden (D) 57%
Trump (R) 38%
Unsure 5%

Oregon
Biden (D) 52%
Trump (R) 40%
Unsure 8%

Washington (Senator Smiley approves)
Trump (R) 46%
Biden (D) 45%
Unsure 10%

https://independentcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Independent-Center-2024-Pacific-State-Survey-Toplines.pdf

[wbrocks67]

One is not like the others.

Who knew Oregon would have a 4% rightward shift while neighboring Washington would have a 20% rightward shift at the same time lol

[wbrocks67]

For context here are the 2020 recalls:
Alaska: Trump +11 (46-35)
California: Biden +23 (56-33)
Hawaii: Biden +20 (55-35)
Oregon: Biden +13 (47-34)
Washington: Biden +5 (45-40)

Kind of funny that based on this, Biden is doing completely fine and 2020 redux in CA, HI, OR based on their recalls. Recall is correct in Alaska, so guess that one is a bad poll for him. 2020 recall for WA is Biden +5 so if you shift the current result about 14% leftward, you get a somewhat realistic result lol

[wbrocks67]

One is not like the others.

Who knew Oregon would have a 4% rightward shift while neighboring Washington would have a 20% rightward shift at the same time lol

Washington numbers just seem like it's 2022 all over again. Senator Smiley can confirm.

However, I also highly doubt Trump is going to win Alaska by 19 points. Maybe half the margin at best.

Alaska voters in this poll also rank Immigration as their top issue so ... probably a bad sample lol