Black voters (Wapo/Ipsos): Biden +60

[wbrocks67]

They pulled a Monmouth though and did the whole definitely, probably, probably not, definitely not etc

Biden: 74% (48% definitely, 26% probably)
Trump: 14% (5% definitely, 9% probably)

Biden approval: 68/32 (+36)

Biden fav: 69/27 (+42)
Harris fav: 64/25 (+39)
Trump fav: 13/83 (-70)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/06/poll-biden-black-voters/https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2024/05/03/april-9-16-2024-washington-post-ipsos-poll-black-americans/

[wbrocks67]

The 'definitely not vote for' is probably the most telling here, and that's 16% for Biden but 76% for Trump

[wbrocks67]

This looks much closer to reality than some of the other surveys floating around.

Trump at 14% nearly doubles his 2020 figure. Biden 74% is an 18% drop

As you concede that this looks much closer to reality, then you're conceding a big swing in Trump's favor

The 2020 exit poll was Biden 87, Trump 12.

[wbrocks67]

I'd say the biggest thing to gleam from this poll for Biden and Dems is as many have stated - black voters are clearly not gravitating towards Trump - he has an 83% unfavorability rating and has less of a possible vote share (14%) than RFK (20%) - so the key thing for Dems is that black voters that are drifting are more likely to either vote third party or just sit out altogether - so theres work to do there.

But these #s clearly show there is no surge towards Trump, as we knew the crosstabs with him getting 20-30% of the black vote were purely absurd.