May Primaries Coverage Thread

[wbrocks67]

Curious how high Haley will be in NE and MD tonight. KS has a surprisingly high showing for Haley, so I wonder if NE will duplicate.

[wbrocks67]

STOP THE COUNT! 4% in for WV and Biden actually has a higher share than Trump (82.8 vs 82.6) lol

[wbrocks67]

Nothing out of the ordinary in WV, Biden at 76%, Trump now at 86%.

Key questions are if Haley remains in double digits and if Biden falls below 70. Would be something if WV ended up being not as bad as MN in the end

[wbrocks67]

A horrific performance for Trump in the early vote in the Omaha area/suburbs, wow. I'm sure e-day will make up for it a bit, but I'm watching to see if this is KS all over again with a surprisingly robust Haley vote here too statewide.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is doing a little better than I expected in Nebraska and a little worse than I expected in Maryland. I would have thought Maryland would have been one his best states in the country.

I guess one of those states only having the ghost of Dean Phillips while the other had multiple options including the all-important "Uncommitted" is a big factor though.

There's still ~150K VBM left in Maryland I believe, so Biden will likely go up to 88-89% I think by the end

[wbrocks67]

Why is Maryland only at 67% of votes counted?

They were waiting to count a lot of the later arriving VBM until today

[wbrocks67]

Nebraska:
-surprisingly strong for Biden; 10% protest vote in a red state like this is not too shabby
-pretty awful for Trump, he did better than Kansas, but barely cracking 80% in a red state like this is awful for him

West Virginia:
-Kind of funny that it just about ties Minnesota for Biden’s worst state. Was expecting even worse here
-Obviously of one of Trump’s best states, but the fact that protest votes are still hitting 12% in West Virginia of all places is a warning sign

Maryland:
tbd but Biden probably should've been able to hit 90% here, given it was closed. Typical performance for Trump since it seems Haley will end up with about 21-22%

[wbrocks67]

More Maryland coming in, Uncommitted about to fall below 10%. Biden up to 86.7-10.0.

Haley also up to 21.2, Trump 78.8.

[wbrocks67]

Maryland is still not done counting, but here's what we have so far:

Dems (86% in)
Biden 87.2%
Uncommitted 9.7%

Reps (92% in)
Trump 78.3%
Haley 21.7%

By the end, I expect Biden to get to ~88% while Trump around ~77% (though they probably don't have as many VBMs left at this point)

[wbrocks67]

NYT results page

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/21/us/elections/results-oregon-primary.html

Sadly, Haley didn't make the ballot in OR so we won't have a gauge there on the Trump protest vote.

[wbrocks67]

Kentucky in 2020:
Biden 68% - Uncommitted 11% - Other candidates 21%
Trump 87% - Uncommitted 13%

Surprised at the non-Trump vote in 2020; wonder if we'll see something similar tonight.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Trump's starting to consolidate his base - Haley is only at 5% per NYT.

Because there's a bunch of other people on this ballot. They add up to 13% right now.

[wbrocks67]

Trump at 75% in Jefferson County, same old story

[wbrocks67]

Kentucky in 2020:
Biden 68% - Uncommitted 11% - Other candidates 21%
Trump 87% - Uncommitted 13%

Surprised at the non-Trump vote in 2020; wonder if we'll see something similar tonight.

For the 100t time, it's disingenuous to compare a cycle where Trump was the incumbent and Biden wasn't to the current cycle.  

I'm sure you'll insist on doing so.

Trump is a known commodity with zero actual opposition. He is the de facto incumbent for the GOP. There's absolutely reason to compare them.

[wbrocks67]

Kentucky in 2020:
Biden 68% - Uncommitted 11% - Other candidates 21%
Trump 87% - Uncommitted 13%

Surprised at the non-Trump vote in 2020; wonder if we'll see something similar tonight.

For the 100t time, it's disingenuous to compare a cycle where Trump was the incumbent and Biden wasn't to the current cycle.  

I'm sure you'll insist on doing so.

Trump is a known commodity with zero actual opposition. He is the de facto incumbent for the GOP. There's absolutely reason to compare them.

Nikki Haley has near universal name ID and when she was in the race, majorly fundraised.. incumbents usually don't face such opposition.

In every open primary for decades, there's been some degree of "dead vote" for withdrawn candidates.. its just electoral precedent.  

Nikki Haley dropped out nearly 3 months ago. She is a protest vote at this point, pure and simple. Same as Phillips or Williamson. Doesn't matter if she was "officially" in the race and fundraised at this point in the game.

[wbrocks67]

From what I can tell, Obama only won 58% in KY in 2012? 42% went uncommitted

[wbrocks67]

I wish "Uncommitted' was an option on the Oregon ballot. We may see Williamson's best performance of the race later tonight though (unless there's a crazy amount of wrire-ins).

NYT has a spot for write-ins in their tally

[wbrocks67]

Fayette finally in, looks like Biden will end up with about 71%, slightly above WV performance

[wbrocks67]

For all the talk about Oregon, 88% with write-ins as well is v good for Biden

[wbrocks67]

Biden down to 87.2% with the write-ins surging in Oregon.

Sounds about right, I assume he'll settle around 85-86% by the end, which is still a bit higher than I expected. I was thinking something closer to 80%

[wbrocks67]

Maryland and Oregon update:

MD (>95% in finally)
Biden 87.2%, Uncommitted 9.7%
Trump 77.6%, 22.4% Haley

OR (86% in)
Biden 87.0%, Williamson 7.1%, Write-ins 5.9%

Biden holding up better with late votes in OR than I'd expect.

[wbrocks67]

Maryland D/R share - 70/30
Oregon D/R share - 59/41

[wbrocks67]

Maryland D/R share - 70/30
Oregon D/R share - 59/41

Muh enthusiasm gap.

Also funny how it's pretty much the same for the last 3 years, give or take a few %:

Maryland-
2024 prez: 70/30
2022 gov: 69/31
2020 prez: 72/28

Oregon-
2024 prez: 59/41 (so far)
2022 sen: 57/43
2020 prez: 62/38

The voters who are actually voting are basically performing the same as they have for multiple cycles now.