Ireland General Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Thanks.

I didn't see the regional overview but I did try a general overview and calculation (or to be more blunt, I guessed) and I ended up with: FF 42 FG 55 LAB 19 SF 24 OTH 18 (I calculated others by assuming that all independents that ran in 2011 would run again, obviously not realistic but predicting where independents will form is complete waste of effort. It could be anywhere though I'm sure if an election were held tomorrow more than 18 - and I included the ex-ULA in my figures and had all but Boyd Barrett re-elected - and possibly far more would enter the Dáil.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I might need to seek help because I think I'm actually developing a kind of grudging respect for Enda Kenny.

Well, when you consider the people opposing this move...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I'm bumping this thread just to post what might be the worst article ever published in a 'newspaper of record'

(FTR, the incident this person is referring is him being slightly too late to avoid a parking fine, not paying it and ending up in jail for two hours)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why so damn high?

This is Ireland. 50% odds that it'll end up very close anyways.

As Lewis points out there is any referendum in Ireland with few exceptions a big swing to the 'no change' option during the campaign. However, the poll is an excellent sign.

Also can people commenting on this please not refer to ridiculous cliches about the country which barely have any resemblance in fact these days? And no, Wikipedia knowledge is not knowledge.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh good lord.... There goes my chances of voting for SF from minus zero to minus infinity

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What is this... I don't even.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The utter awfulness of Ireland's political parties is currently a thing of wonder.

At least you're spared having to vote for them.

Thank god for emigration.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The utter awfulness of Ireland's political parties is currently a thing of wonder.

Speaking of which btw 'Others/Independents' now leads in the polls (Sadly, it is within the MoE).

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[Tetro Kornbluth]

The utter awfulness of Ireland's political parties is currently a thing of wonder.

Speaking of which btw 'Others/Independents' now leads in the polls (Sadly, it is within the MoE).

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In practice this would just mean the Entrepreneur Party or whatever leads the polls unfortunately.

Oh, I know that. It's just rather amusing - at this rate perhaps not even FG/FF will have a majority of Dáil seats.

We are just waiting for our Silvio Berlusconi.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Btw, the regional breakdowns in this poll are interesting (page 7)

Dublin
FG 21
LAB 12
FF 17
SF 17
OTH 33

Rest of Lenister
FG 31
LAB 10
FF 26
SF 15
OTH 18

Munster
FG 21
LAB 5
FF 31
SF 12
OTH 31

Connacht/Ulster
FG 22
LAB 6
FF 19
SF 26
OTH 27

There is little disparity among age groups except curiously much lower rates of voting for Independents/Other among 18-34 years old.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The FF 'comeback' must be one of the most overrated phenomenons of recent years. Remember folks, they are still polling worse than they did at the time of the last local elections (in 2009) and that was believed by everyone then to be an absolute nadir in their performance...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Just a reminder, they haven't gone away know....

I think here it will be of interest to note that the Socialist Party are running in the Euros under the name 'STOP THE WATER TAX - Socialist Party'

[Tetro Kornbluth]

By 'they' do you mean the water charges, the stickies, or both?

It's a common term used to describe IRA/The North in the meeja here. 'They' can be anyone.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Let's not forget also

[Tetro Kornbluth]

hahahaha...

Will make a thread on this shortly. Might be a few by-elections coming up actually.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

RIP.

Didn't expect that.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

[Trigger warning: may cause outbreaks of nausea]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times (changes since last poll in December):

FG 25 (-5)
FF 25 (+3)
SF 21 (-)
Ind/Oth 21 (+3)
Lab 8 (-1)

I left FG ahead of FF so as not to traumatise the other IE posters too much.

In other news, our local chip-wrapper mentions Aengus O'Rourke (son of "Mammy" and cousin of the Lenihans) as a possible FF candidate for the Longford-Westmeath by-election. Because FF really need to remind the electorate of all of the old dynasties.

For what it's worth FG would still be the largest party (comfortably) if that were to transpire in a GE.

Also, even at that poll FF are still only at the level of the last local elections which was widely considered a disaster for them.

Yes, I'm taking these as crumbs of comfort, thanks...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A bit of.... variation there.

Worth noting: That B&A puts (no, I don't believe the Greens are on 4%, why do you ask?) FG at a lower level than what they achieved in 2002.

We are where we are

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A bit of.... variation there.

Worth noting: That B&A puts (no, I don't believe the Greens are on 4%, why do you ask?) FG at a lower level than what they achieved in 2002.

21% and 6% are what the two government parties deserve.

As for the 4%, please spare us that smug bicycling Ranelagh git and his crew of fingerwaggers.

Oh, I don't disagree with any of that. Although I suspect that's too low in reality (more like 25 and 9%). Also I suspect the Green total is just an artifact of the poll (or people just saying whatever party comes into their head that they don't automatically disapprove of).

The most interesting thing is that SF seem incapable of getting much beyond 20%.

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We have turned so many corners that we have lost count.
[/quote]

Most of us have turned so many corners we've ended up in London, Toronto or Perth.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I literally LOLed at that ad today. Talk of desperation...  although at least we can clearly see the 'Labour' logo this time.

Gully may well be advised to look away now:

?

I'd laugh rather than cry at that result. Actually, I think I'd do that to any plausible result at this stage. But yes, it's probably a rogue poll. FG aren't doing that badly.

EDIT: Speaking of which, just realized, I was probably part of the sample of that particular poll. So that's a fraction of the 'others' total then.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's being widely reported that Gilmore will be resigning shortly.

He's gone.

Didn't expect that. Joanie to succeed, I suppose?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's being widely reported that Gilmore will be resigning shortly.

He's gone.

Didn't expect that. Joanie to succeed, I suppose?

That would be the most likely option although Alex White or even Brendan Howlin are outside possibilities.

Is Alex White a serious candidate? I mean, he's absolutely certain to lose his seat next time around. Also yet another Labour leader with a student-Trot/USI background? As for Howlin, too identified with the government this stage imo.

Is the new leader going to be another sticky?

Joan Burton is the favourite, so no, if her. There aren't all that many ex-WP TDs in the Parliamentary Labour Party, even if they include some of the most prominent members. Even that Gilmore has resigned shows that the leadership recognizes that something has to give... so my guess is probably not. Not sure who can save Labour now though.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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That's pretty much true of every member of the Labour Party now.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Just to recall a mere four years ago

[Tetro Kornbluth]

He would be the first ex-Trot. The last two being Tankies.

I was more playing up the USI/student-Marxist angle, yes.

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Except for sufferers of said conditions, that will be mostly forgotten by the next GE.

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His Rathfarnham area base is being drawn out of the constituency for the next election and being moved into Tallaghtland (aka Dublin South West) where there are already 2 sitting Labour TDs (admittely one of them is Pat Rabitte, but....)

On that note, If White wins it (and I know he won't) would be the four Labour leader in a row who represented a Dublin-south-of-the-Liffey seat.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Today in "Why, oh why, can we not have a better intelligentsia", the world's worst political journalist, Stephen Collins

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Oh sure, the real reason that Labour was thrashed last week had no connection at all to what they've done, only things they said... four years ago.

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LOL. Oh, do name names Stephen.

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Ah so the real problem is - gadzooks - the media of which Stephen Collins is most definitely  a part, I mean what else could it be? That common good has been so.... common over the last few years.

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HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.... Oh lord. Nurse! Meds!

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Perhaps we don't need a Nurse so much as a a psychiatrist

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Lord, Stephen... so if I understand you correctly, you think the way to save the Labour Party is for it to keep doing what it has been doing for the past three years. Perhaps when Labour really needs is for Sean Sherlock and Pat Rabbitte on TV twenty years a hour, seven days a week saying nothing but the words "Hard Decisions" and "Tough Choices" on a continual loop.

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There is not a single fact in that paragraph

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What is this, I don't even?

Did Stephen also notice how 'well' the other government party did last week?

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*Head desk*

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Low turnout in... middle class areas? What. is. he. talking. about.

Thank god print media is dying.