I think that, given a PV tie, there are 10 real battlegrounds. 4 are slight Bush; 4 are slight Kerry. The other two will decide the race. If they are split then the EC is tied, if both go to a candidate then that candidate wins.
Bush-264
Kerry-264
Tossup-10
Extremly plausable....good point.
My gut is telling me:
W. VA - To Bush by 3%
NH - To Kerry by 5%
PA - To Kerry by 5%
MI - To Kerry by 6%
NM - To Kerry by 3%
WA - To Kerry by 7%
MN - To Kerry by 5%
Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Oregon and Nevada in my view are the hardest.
I'm going with Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada by 2% to Kerry
Oregon to Kerry by 4%
Ohio to Bush by 2%
Florida to Kerry by 2%
And the sleeper is Missouri to Kerry by 2%
