Beet
Atlas Star
Posts: 29,022
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« on: May 18, 2016, 08:50:25 PM » |
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The problem with endorsement points is twofold. One, their value seems to be justified primarily in the last three or four elections. No academic will tell you that a valid sample size can be three or four, or even seventeen, as Silver himself acknowledges.
Secondly, what is the theoretical mechanism of transmission? In the Washington caucus, Hillary had the endorsement of both party Senators, the Governor, the mayor of Seattle, and dozens of state legislators. If these people had some magical powers of mind control, it wouldn't have been a 48 point loss. In 2008, Obama lost Massachusetts by 16 points even though both Kerry and the Kennedy family rallied around him. So if endorsements don't work at the state level, why would it work at the national level? It's not explained now it's supposed to work.
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