Note: A bit of a throwback but essential reading. Last throwback article and then we’ll move on to the GOP and Democratic Conventions in 2020. It’s a minor (relatively) story about how Trump disabled the North Korean nuclear regime and marks one of the few successes in the Trump era. It will be referenced by the 2020 GOP Convention so we should talk about it. Yes, we’re retconning Giuliani and putting in Tillerson. Normally I wouldn't do that but Tillerson's unique background makes it hard to put in a politico like Giuliani.
Trump strikes at North Korea Regime; Disables Nuke Program
(October 2017) -- (Washington, D.C.) -- President Donald Trump struck at the North Korean regime in a surprise attack at dawn (Pyonyang time) and disabled the nuclear program that the regime had built. After months of warning and negotiations between the United States and China, the Americans had decided to unilaterally disarm Kim Jong-Un’s nuclear capabilities.
President Obama had advised his successor that the North Korean nuclear program would need to be seriously curtailed or else the region faced imminent danger. Soon after President Trump was inaugurated, the United States held high level secret talks with the People’s Republic of China. They put pressure on Beijing to rein in Pyonyang and to force Kim Jong-Un to dismantle his program. The Chinese stalled, angry at the United States’ economic retaliatory measures and for months, talks dragged out without resolution.
In early September, the National Security Council convened to draw up plans to take out the Korean nuclear missile program unilaterally. In a series of limited strikes, the United States would attack and take out North Korea’s missile program - the first time any military power had taken action against another military power for the express purpose of destroying its nuclear program. The President, not usually a man prone to military action despite all his bravado, approved the limited strikes and advised his Council that the Chinese would need to be onboard with the program.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson shuttled between Washington and Beijing, brokering a high level deal where the Chinese agreed to turn over intelligence regarding the program and to refuse to come to North Korea’s aid in the aftermath. In response, the United States would give in on key concessions regarding China’s dominance in the South Pacific. Japan’s Abe Shinzo was also appraised and signed off on the mission as did the South Korean government.
In early October, the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan was sent to the naval base in Yokosuka, Japan and prepared for the mission. In final secret negotiations, Kim Jong-Un refused to give up his nuclear warheads and Washington walked away. Believing that the talks would continue on the North Koreans were in the dark.
On the morning of October 12, 2017, U.S. bomber planes flew over the secret facilities and struck them, decisively and with precision. Before a single nuclear warhead could be fired, U.S. warplanes had taken out the facilities, rendering North Korea without the capabilities to take out South Korea or Japan. Shortly after the 8:00 bombing runs, the Chinese Ambassador to North Korea notified the government that China would not help in any retaliation against the United States - and indeed, were action to be taken to that end, China would respond with military action against the regime.
Furious, Kim Jong-Un tried to rally the military for an armed invasion of South Korea. But without the nuclear warheads and with the USS Reagan sitting offshore, the regime’s leader was not in much of a position to argue. He reluctantly agreed, within 48 hours, to allow the United Nations to investigate freely any nuclear facility within the country, and to allow international inspectors free rein. The regime was seriously destabilized by the attack and Kim Jong-Un’s power was under siege. Within a few years, the North Korean regime would fall and Kim Jong-Un would be forced to flee overseas for his personal safety.
At home, the Trump Administration was applauded for its decisive action on the North Korean nuclear program. China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea all lauded the White House for decisively ending a threat to regional stability and for a time, the President would be praised as a decisive leader.
This is wildly optimistic. Russia and China have already opposed military strikes, South Korea likely would as well, and Japan would be reluctant at best. Even Mattis has said that a strike on North Korea would be 'tragic on an unbelievable scale'. Further, given that Trump has rightly stated that it could spark a
'major, major' war, a strike of these implications without Congressional authorization seems to step over the line even in these days of expansive presidential powers.
While I would be happier than anyone if the North Korean problem were resolved so easily, that is not likely. Most likely it will require a buildup of conventional forces on the peninsula, a reintroduction of nuclear weapons into South Korea, a buildup of missile defense, and adopting a posture of overwhelming retaliation.
