ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Beet]

In a wave election (which is what everyone is assuming 2018 will be), the winning party tends to win virtually all the competitive/lean races. This happened in 2014 and 2016, and Heitkamp is way too strong to lose to Cramer in such a pro-Democratic environment in such a incumbent-friendly state. I think this race will start trending away from Republicans around Labor Day, with Heitkamp wrapping it up after the first debate. Granted, I have Republicans winning IN, MO and TN right now, but I’m not sure about those states (Democrats would win TN and MO if the election were held today).

If the 2017 elections (and 2018 special elections) are any indication, any wave in 2018 is only conditional: Democrats will 'wave' in urban and metropolitan areas, but not in rural areas. Since North Dakota is not a metropolitan state, it may not be affected by any wave and may even trend more R. This is a far more Republican state than even the one Mitt Romney carried in 2012, when Heitkamp was elected. Obama got 38% of the vote then, but Hillary only got 27% of the vote. 1 in 4 of the Democratic voters who helped Heitkamp to her original election simply don't exist any more.

[Beet]

If the 2017 elections (and 2018 special elections) are any indication, any wave in 2018 is only conditional: Democrats will 'wave' in urban and metropolitan areas, but not in rural areas. Since North Dakota is not a metropolitan state, it may not be affected by any wave and may even trend more R. This is a far more Republican state than even the one Mitt Romney carried in 2012, when Heitkamp was elected. Obama got 38% of the vote then, but Hillary only got 27% of the vote. 1 in 4 of the Democratic voters who helped Heitkamp to her original election simply don't exist any more.

Which is why Jon Tester and Joe Manchin are losing in the polls right now, right? Democrats have been doing well in a lot of rural districts in both special elections and polling this year (the Midwest in particular), and it’s foolish to assume that the composition of the electorate turning out this year will resemble the composition of the 2016 electorate (when you had a uniquely bad fit for the state at the top of the ticket). If anything, it will be much more Democratic-friendly.

Charisma, personal interactions and the advantage of incumbency are far more likely to be deciding factors in states like Montana and North Dakota than the candidates' voting records or whatever. Scoff at us using the term "retail politics" as much as you want, but there’s a reason why people like Tester keep winning reelection despite being fairly liberal, and you’re kidding yourself if you think appearance and manner have nothing to do with it. People love to point out how Democratic-fiendly Montana is down-ballot, but the Dakotas also have a long history of electing Democrats to the Senate.

MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE: July 18, 2016
RE: Recent Indiana Statewide Survey

The results of our July 12-14 survey conducted among 602 likely voters (+4.1%) shows that a sizeable majority of Hoosiers look positively on Evan Bayh’s past service as their Senator and support him in his comeback bid by an overwhelming 21-point margin.

[Beet]

My opinion of this race has been the same since last year, and my analysis the same since July:

If the 2017 elections (and 2018 special elections) are any indication, any wave in 2018 is only conditional: Democrats will 'wave' in urban and metropolitan areas, but not in rural areas. Since North Dakota is not a metropolitan state, it may not be affected by any wave and may even trend more R. This is a far more Republican state than even the one Mitt Romney carried in 2012, when Heitkamp was elected. Obama got 38% of the vote then, but Hillary only got 27% of the vote. 1 in 4 of the Democratic voters who helped Heitkamp to her original election simply don't exist any more.

[Beet]

How to Blow a Winnable Race 101

Hopefully you’re talking about Cramer since this race was never winnable for any Democrat. There’s no D base here. Remember the good old days of Likely D ND because of retail politics? LOL, good times

If Heitkamp loses, she’ll have no one to blame but herself. This race was definitely winnable for her, especially in a Democratic wave year.

Heitkamp was going to lose even before any of this. If ND wasn't a 27% Clinton state, Cramer's support for Kavanaugh and his comments about "even if it was true" and "strong women don't get raped" would have sunk him long ago.

[Beet]

How to Blow a Winnable Race 101

Hopefully you’re talking about Cramer since this race was never winnable for any Democrat. There’s no D base here. Remember the good old days of Likely D ND because of retail politics? LOL, good times

If Heitkamp loses, she’ll have no one to blame but herself. This race was definitely winnable for her, especially in a Democratic wave year.

Heitkamp was going to lose even before any of this. If ND wasn't a 27% Clinton state, Cramer's support for Kavanaugh and his comments about "even if it was true" and "strong women don't get raped" would have sunk him long ago.

That line of thinking would also imply that Manchin would be doomed as well, as his home state gave Clinton only 26% of the vote.

No, I think the main reason Heitkamp is in trouble is that she has been running a rather lukewarm campaign (compared to someone like Richard Ojeda in WV-3, who has come out swinging and maintained that posture).

There's no indication Ojeda is going to win.

As for Manchin, let's just say I'm a lot more skeptical of his chances than most here.

[Beet]

Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans, especially in red states.

Which is why Menendez will lose while Moore won.

What is it with Republicans comparing corruption with pedophila?

Because Menendez is accused of pedophilia as well?

These accusations were deemed to flimsy to even publish by the New York Post. Police in the Dominican Republic said three women claimed to have been paid a few hundred dollars each to lie about having had sex with Menendez. I like the way you phrase it, "is accused", as if that by itself has any weight. Weren't you one of the ones saying "innocent until proven guilty", "don't ruin his life" and "don't weaponize MeToo" when it came to Kavanaugh, who had far more credible accusations against him? It's disgusting that Bob Hugin is campaigning on this.

[Beet]

I am now starting to seriously wonder if Heitkamp will lose by double digits next month. We have now had two polls showing her trailing Cramer by more than 10 points. As I said before, Cramer's victory will complete North Dakota's transition into a solidly Republican state at all levels.

It's crazy that as recently as 2008, Obama got a massive rally of like 20,000 people in North Dakota.