North Korea Mega Thread

[Beet]

"Just heard Foreign Minister of North Korea speak at U.N. If he echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man, they won't be around much longer!"
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/911789314169823232

[Beet]

McMaster says NK must accept inspections and give up its nukes before talks can be held. Both are DOA.

He "also said the Trump administration has gamed out “four to five” scenarios in which the North Korea nuclear threat is resolved. “Some are uglier than others,” he said in a speech hosted by the Institute for the Study of War."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/mcmaster-says-north-korea-must-accept-inspections-before-talks

This game of holding their cards close to the vest by McMaster is getting tiresome. North Korea has clearly said they will not give up their nukes under any circumstances, although they've also said the reason for their nuclear program is the U.S. "hostile policy", which is actually a contradiction to the first point.

[Beet]

Russia Provides New Internet Connection to North Korea

"A major Russian telecommunications company appears to have begun providing an Internet connection to North Korea. The new link supplements one from China and will provide back-up to Pyongyang at a time the US government is reportedly attacking its Internet infrastructure and pressuring China to end all business with North Korea."

http://www.38north.org/2017/10/mwilliams100117/

[Beet]

A CSIS study: More negotiations = fewer provocations.

[Beet]

Russia Provides New Internet Connection to North Korea

"A major Russian telecommunications company appears to have begun providing an Internet connection to North Korea. The new link supplements one from China and will provide back-up to Pyongyang at a time the US government is reportedly attacking its Internet infrastructure and pressuring China to end all business with North Korea."

http://www.38north.org/2017/10/mwilliams100117/

Blaming Russia for the Democratic party sucking was sure a brilliant move here.

I'm on the pro-Russia side on this one. They have called for the issue to be resolved peacefully, and they are right.

[Beet]

A Hypothetical Nuclear Attack on Seoul and Tokyo: The Human Cost of War on the Korean Peninsula

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[Beet]

Trump: "Only one thing will work!"

[Beet]

Trump: "Only one thing will work!"

Hopefully he's referring to more tweeting and  not the bomb.

He's only referring to one thing. It will result in:

- The first direct attack on a nuclear armed state in human history
- The first use of hydrogen weapons in human history
- The first use of atomic weapons in 73 years
- Mass deaths beyond anything imaginable

[Beet]

My guess is that 1) the Russians are feeding the North Koreans missile technology, including the ability to hit the U.S., as well as giving them hacking assistance, and 2) Trump (who the Russians put into office) wants to start a war to lift his sagging approval ratings. The end result will be great for Russia: Heavy, potentially nuclear catastrophe for the U.S. and two major U.S. allies, and possible war between the U.S. and China, while it itself sits pretty and perhaps has a chance to grab more of Ukraine / Belarus while the U.S. is distracted.

[Beet]

Implication of the amendment to executive order 13223?

Worth keeping an eye on, but we’ll see... that USA Today article suggested the AF shortage had been ongoing for some time

It's the AF shortage but could also be used in the case of war for all branches. Was talking about this with some retired officers yesterday. The thing is that if war were to occur, it would be a lot of quick and massive strikes using assets in theater and the surge of personnel really wouldn't be necessary unless we invade NK which is a non-starter to China.

So they are going to start a war while ruling out invading the North before it even starts? What if invading the North becomes the best military option to save our troops and/or civilians? This is a huge self-handicap.

[Beet]

Implication of the amendment to executive order 13223?

Worth keeping an eye on, but we’ll see... that USA Today article suggested the AF shortage had been ongoing for some time

It's the AF shortage but could also be used in the case of war for all branches. Was talking about this with some retired officers yesterday. The thing is that if war were to occur, it would be a lot of quick and massive strikes using assets in theater and the surge of personnel really wouldn't be necessary unless we invade NK which is a non-starter to China.

So they are going to start a war while ruling out invading the North before it even starts? What if invading the North becomes the best military option to save our troops and/or civilians? This is a huge self-handicap.

Don't worry! Invading Afghanistan back after 9/11 was done with lots of airpower and had hardly any non-local troops on the ground, and look how well that turned out! And that was with Bush and his crew. Imagine the difference with Trump in charge!

<goes and vomits>

Not to mention the Taliban didn't have ICBMs, which even Aegis carrier defenses can't hit. All North Korea needs to know are the coordinates of the slow-moving CSGs to sink them. And of course Guam is a sitting duck.

[Beet]

Trump has not done a single day of diplomacy in his entire presidency.

[Beet]

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https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/10/26/nkor-o26.html

[Beet]

Report that NK hacked Daewoo Shipbuilding and got warship blueprints https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/north-korea-hacked-daewoo-shipbuilding-took-warship-blueprints-south-korea-lawmaker.html

SK needs to up their cyber game in a big way to prevent this. Second strike for SK failing to protect mil docs.

NK’s hacking abilities are insane. Call me paranoid, but there’s no way they’re not getting outside help.

[Beet]

Report that NK hacked Daewoo Shipbuilding and got warship blueprints https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/north-korea-hacked-daewoo-shipbuilding-took-warship-blueprints-south-korea-lawmaker.html

SK needs to up their cyber game in a big way to prevent this. Second strike for SK failing to protect mil docs.

Once they learned from Russia and China they really don't need anyone else to keep the training program going.

NK’s hacking abilities are insane. Call me paranoid, but there’s no way they’re not getting outside help.

Likely but they have an entire hacking academy that trains kids up from like age 8 or so. It's like the Spartans but hackers.

That's a nice stereotype but I doubt it.

[Beet]

From 2003 even https://www.wired.com/2003/06/north-koreas-school-for-hackers/

Neither of these sources claim they are training kids from age 8, or anything close to it. It shouldn't be any surprise that they have hacking agencies, as do all countries with any significant security interests. What is unusual is how an isolated country with a GDP the size of Gabon has, in a few years, developed the ability to hack into central government nerve centers of G20 countries, and ICBM abilities comparable to China and India.

[Beet]

From 2003 even https://www.wired.com/2003/06/north-koreas-school-for-hackers/

Neither of these sources claim they are training kids from age 8, or anything close to it. It shouldn't be any surprise that they have hacking agencies, as do all countries with any significant security interests. What is unusual is how an isolated country with a GDP the size of Gabon has, in a few years, developed the ability to hack into central government nerve centers of G20 countries, and ICBM abilities comparable to China and India.

"It would be arrogant to assume North Korea doesn’t have the ability. Today, the nation’s brightest youngsters are groomed from age seven or eight to be hackers. First they are drilled in the standard sciences at some of the 290 elite middle schools dotting the country. Then, the top 50 of each year are picked to attend the prestigious Kumsong [High] School, where 60% of the curriculum concerns computers. The most accomplished continue their studies at top colleges."

http://time.com/4781809/ransomware-attack-north-korea-wannacry/

A.k.a., kids learn math and science in Middle School. What is the curriculum in these "290 elite middle schools"? If it's stuff like algebra, it's not much different than many U.S. schools. Again, if an accelerated math curriculum was all it took to design ICBMs and hack into military secrets, countries like Iran would have done it long ago.

[Beet]

From 2003 even https://www.wired.com/2003/06/north-koreas-school-for-hackers/

Neither of these sources claim they are training kids from age 8, or anything close to it. It shouldn't be any surprise that they have hacking agencies, as do all countries with any significant security interests. What is unusual is how an isolated country with a GDP the size of Gabon has, in a few years, developed the ability to hack into central government nerve centers of G20 countries, and ICBM abilities comparable to China and India.

"It would be arrogant to assume North Korea doesn’t have the ability. Today, the nation’s brightest youngsters are groomed from age seven or eight to be hackers. First they are drilled in the standard sciences at some of the 290 elite middle schools dotting the country. Then, the top 50 of each year are picked to attend the prestigious Kumsong [High] School, where 60% of the curriculum concerns computers. The most accomplished continue their studies at top colleges."

http://time.com/4781809/ransomware-attack-north-korea-wannacry/

A.k.a., kids learn math and science in Middle School. What is the curriculum in these "290 elite middle schools"? If it's stuff like algebra, it's not much different than many U.S. schools. Again, if an accelerated math curriculum was all it took to design ICBMs and hack into military secrets, countries like Iran would have done it long ago.

Standard sciences so yes, the above would be included. Then it goes on "The Kim Il Military Academy, established in 1986, has a five-year program to train students in software programming, technical reconnaissance and electronic warfare." They train and excel at hacking and have been shown to be proficient on a great power level. It's all in the Time article. Did you read it?

Yes, I did. A five-year program to train students in programming suggests they don't have a Spartan-like program training hackers from age 8... if they did, a five-year program would be useless. This is describing the equivalent for a four-year degree in cybersecurity from any baccalaureate institution. I'm not denying that they have hacking abilities, just that the sophistication of those abilities is unusual for a country so small and ostensibly isolated.

[Beet]

I agree that it is unusual but it is both literally and figuratively their economic and national security bread and butter. They have been at this since the 80s.

Hacking? Actually, they haven't earned significant money from hacking until very recently. Their main sources of revenue have been coal exports and remittances. To keep things in perspective, South Korea spends about $3 billion annually on cybersecurity. To match that, North Korea would have to spend about 19% of its entire 2016 GDP, or about seven-eighths of its entire military budget, on hacking. And South Korea presumably has assistance from the U.S., Japan, and other countries. Which is why more likely than not, they are getting some outside assistance.

[Beet]

North Korea issues a statement strongly denying that their weapons are offensive:

"Recently, some policy research institutions and media of the U.S. and other Western countries publicized the so called "merciless nuclear attack plan" of the DPRK and claimed that the DPRK is planning random and indiscriminate attacks on the U.S. and Asian countries drawing no distinction between military and civilian targets.

They claim that these projections are based on their study and analysis of the reports by the DPRK's media, however these are nothing but slanders to "demonize" the DPRK by twisting the meaning of our tough stand and absurd paradox worked out by the laymen who lack elementary understanding of the purpose of the DPRK's nuclear deterrence.

...

To make it clear once again, the DPRK's nuclear force which targets none other than the U.S. is the reliable deterrent to prevent a nuclear war and firmly defend peace on the Korean peninsula by thoroughly eradicating the half-a-century long unilateral nuclear blackmail and threat from the U.S."

https://kcnawatch.co/newstream/1511879443-398942438/statement-by-director-of-press-of-institution-for-american-studies-of-dprk-foreign-ministry/

[Beet]

This is no surprise.

"Significantly, the official statement on the missile test included a "solemn declaration" that the North would always be a "responsible nuclear power" and pose no danger to any other country as long as it did not come under threat itself."

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/what-now-for-nuclear-state-north-korea

The phrase "responsible nuclear power" refers to a statement from Kim Jong Un himself laid out at the Seventh National Workers' Party Congress in 2016.

"As a responsible nuclear weapons state, our republic will not use a nuclear weapon unless its sovereignty is encroached upon by any aggressive hostile forces with nukes," the KCNA news agency quoted him as saying.

"And it will faithfully fulfil its obligation for non-proliferation and strive for the global denuclearisation."

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-160508040813994.html

The top quote, today, is from a televised news broadcast where they brought out an announcer only used for highly important occasions; the bottom is from Kim himself, at the first WPK Congress since 1980. All these statements carry greater weight than the meaningless propaganda drivel put out by KCNA which our media likes to report.

All of which is why I am more worried about Trump than Kim.

[Beet]

Well, the Russians are the voice of reason here.

[Beet]

Yeah, I think the US would go conventional, at least at first. The post-Hiroshima/Nagasaki taboo is pretty strong after all.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki would both get re-nuked anyway since they house U.S. bases.

[Beet]

BREAKING: US considering "limited" strike on NK, expecting it not to escalate IOT give NK a "bloody nose." Epic stupidity thinking that the NKs will not escalate when they respond in kind. Wow.

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-reportedly-wants-bloody-nose-strike-against-north-korea-2017-12

BBC sourcing comes from The Daily Telegraph sources from within the administration.

There is no such thing as a “limited” strike, as Kim has staked the legitimacy of his regime on his missile program. If he loses that he could be overthrown, which means certain death for him. He would no doubt respond militarily and from there on it escalates very quickly to all out nuclear war. In any case to simply assume the best case scenario rather than the worst is pretty much every military disaster in history. They thought WW1 would be over by Christmas, and that China would not intervene in the first Korean War, too.

[Beet]

What is the end game if NK doesn't disarm and there is no war?

US, South Korea, and Japan acceptance of a nuclear NK and massive deterrence/nuclear SK and Japan. It's not a preferable outcome.

Basically this becomes the event that makes nuclear proliferation a reality. An inflection point. This is basically what Putin wants. That is, the world to be a bunch of fortresses pointing nukes at each other.

Other countries are not in a position of North Korea. Besides, I'm sure Putin would be fine with North Korea nuking the U.S., South Korea and Japan and getting nuked in return, since the U.S. and its allies would lose far more than the country with virtually nothing to lose but their lives.