Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hash]

What does "Our region to power" mean? Or does it just not translate well?

Basically it means "elect an MP who will be on the side of power and will get you advantages for your home turf". It's not a bad slogan, but in reality it's "elect a useless tool who will vote party-line and do nothing all day" - I'd know, because I have the great opportunity of having a Tory MP.

[Hash]

Nothing has surprised me yet, but it seems like support for the Greens has totally collapsed. Are the polls just underestimating the Green vote or does anyone else think that the Greens may in bad electoral shape?

Bad shape overall. Debate exclusion got them some media, but the actual fact of them being out surely didn't help. Other than that, May has turned the Greenies into a 'Elect Me, Myself and I' party. She's basically campaigning 24/7 in Saanich and running jokes everywhere else. It also seems as if there's a significant bloc of voters this year who'll vote strategically against Harper whereas in 2008 there wasn't that big of such a bloc.

[Hash]

Other than that, May has turned the Greenies into a 'Elect Me, Myself and I' party. She's basically campaigning 24/7 in Saanich and running jokes everywhere else.

Worked for Lucas, didn't it?

May could well win, of course, but at the expense of seeing the Green vote nationally decline quite a bit.

[Hash]

Probably an outlier like that COMPAS junk earlier, albeit it one which will make for some good headlines to give the stupid media some money.

[Hash]

Riding polls:

[Hash]

If the NDP allows for some reason a Tory majority I'll be pissed. And if the NDP allows my retard MP to be reelected they can all go DIAF.

[Hash]

If the NDP allows for some reason a Tory majority I'll be pissed. And if the NDP allows my retard MP to be reelected they can all go DIAF.

Oh please. Orleans is a safe Tory seat these days.

We actually have a good candidate who actually cares about winning the seat, especially against a useless old yes-man geezer. Most people admit that if there's one race in Ottawa which is actually worth watching, it remains Orleans.

[Hash]

If the Conservatives make gains in the Toronto suburbs and are mostly unaffected by the NDP surge in Quebec... that would suck.

Exactly. If the NDP's vote increases everywhere, even where they're weak they'll only serve to split the non-Purgatory vote and allow them to be reelected or gain seats. And, that, my friends, wouldn't be good. If the NDP can gain seats off the Purgs, then all the power to them but if they use to split the vote and elect more Purgs they can go DIAF.

[Hash]

Gatineau
NDP: 33%
BQ: 29%
Libs: 24%
Cons: 11%
Greens: 3%

Is that it? That's rather discouraging. We should be at 50% in Gatineau if the provincial polls are to be believed.

There was that Boivin scandal, or the NDP lead is media hype over polls which are potentially Zogby-likes or the NDP will be screwed by having high support spread out too wide.

[Hash]

Ipsos Reid... Con 43, NDP 24, Lib 21, BQ 6

What's more significant? Dippers in second or the fact that the poll doth scream 'Tory Majority'?

Ipsos-Reid is always the most Tory of the major pollsters, so probably the former.

[Hash]

Not sure I'd call NDG a poor area. Wealthy it is not, but poor it is not either. It's a middle-income trendy area (in general) with young professionals. It is the PVQ's best provincial riding, and its councillor is Peter McQueen, a Greenie.

[Hash]

This is very interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/features/votecompass/map/

For as much BS that Canada Votes thing was, I think these maps are quite accurate. Interesting to see how Libertarian parts of Quebec are.

It looks like Quebec supports higher taxes on the rich the most but also privatizing health insurance the most??? Weird.

The QC ridings with most support for privatizing health care are all rather affluent suburban areas and all but 2 are held by Tories or their retard "independent" ally. Worth noting that Quebec is the province, afaik, where the private sector plays the largest role in health care.

[Hash]

Atlantic.

[Hash]

Dears, riding polls in Quebec have been proven to be worse than useless. You'll remember Jonquiere-Alma and Roberval's polls in 2008.

[Hash]

The NDP guy in Pontiac was a Communist candidate in 1997. Ironically, if he won, that could technically make him the second communist elected (the other being Fred Rose for the LPP in Cartier in the 40s). Haha.

Quebec always has favourite-son syndrome, and the province is united by a theme of Anglo-French conflict. When a party establishes its position regarding that theme, the whole province swings. PM Laurier established this for the Liberals in 1896, and that kept Quebec a Liberal fortress for 60 years. Then Diefenbaker linked up with Quebec's Duplessis, and swept it in 1958. The Quiet Revolution revived the Liberal vote, and it apexed with Trudeau. Quebec's inertia prevents it from swinging too often, but once every decade...

Quebec's Liberal fortress days lasted from 1917 to 1984 with the major exception of 1958 (though the Tories did well in 1930). The Tories were actually relatively strong albeit not dominant in the Laurier era and did well in Quebec in the 1911 election (but didn't win the province). Their weakness started in 1887 with the Louis Riel hanging, destroyed by conscription in 1917 and never strong aside from 1958 until Mulroney's ability to link up with moderate-nationalist sentiment in 1984 and 1988.  

[Hash]

Wait, I know it's not a federal question, but how can BC have a premier that's not even an MPP? That's possible?

She's running in a byelection on May 11 in Campbell's seat.

[Hash]

My Tory friend is in NDP-mass-panic mode and doesn't find the Liberals as evil as before.

[Hash]

Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia was a very close BQ-Liberal quasi-tie in 2008 because of a Liberal star candidate (who's running again) and an archaic BQ incumbent who has since retired. If the poll is accurate, it seems as if it was close in 2008 only because the incumbent wasn't popular. It isn't the traditional Liberal area of Gaspesie, so it makes sense. Low NDP is fishy, though.

[Hash]

Verner losing is unlikely, but seeing her go would be glorious. I'm sure Harpo probably hates her after what she did in 2008.

[Hash]

More CROP riding (har, har) polls from Quebec.

Though, again, we do have to remember that the record of constituency polling is what it is...

Could someone put those in English for us francophobes?

Basically:

high profile Tory idiot Josée Verner is tied 37-37 with the NDP in Louis-Saint-Laurent
incumbent Tory down 36-27 to NDP in Beauport-Limoilou with the Bloc seemingly on 30%
incumbent Tory down 35-31 to NDP in Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
Bloc incumbent tied 34-34 with NDP in Québec
Bloc incumbent down 2 pts in Louis-Hébert
Union Nationale-like like idiot independent André Arthur down 31-29 to NDP in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier with Bloc on 28%
Tory cabinet minister JP Blackburn up 2 (34-32) on the NDP in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean
Tory incumbent up 47-27 in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
Bloc incumbent up 43-27 in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

[Hash]

MMP includes an element of FPTP and Fitzsimons was elected through that element of FPTP.

[Hash]

A beautiful quote from my idiot MP:

GalipeauOrleans Royal Galipeau   
       
    100 volunteers out there today! «Le ciel est bleu; l'enfer est rouge.» Look at those beautiful blue signs. #elxn41 #orleans

Thanks, Royal, I'll make sure to die in hell.

[Hash]

Ha. I can see why you hate him so much now (apart from the horrible party affiliation).

My friend and his folks love him though.

[Hash]

Ha. I can see why you hate him so much now (apart from the horrible party affiliation).

My friend and his folks love him though.

"He's the only one that cares about the community."

Yeah, he really does. So much that the community has lost jobs and he doesn't live in the community. But I digress.

[Hash]

"leader of blue collar union" in Quebec is never a good thing. If said person has an Italian name, then it's even worse.