Quebec 2008: ADQ getting owned LIVE. LIBERALS LEAD DUPLESSIS!11!!!

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I seem to remember QS finishing second (to the PQ) in at least one riding in 2007.  What were their best ridings percentage-wise and those where they came in the highest (2nd being higher than 3rd, etc.) place (perhaps the same, but not necessarily)?

QS got 26.03% in Gouin and 29.38% in Mercier. David ran in Gouin and Khadir in Mercier. And 14.16% in Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques.

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I seem to remember QS finishing second (to the PQ) in at least one riding in 2007.  What were their best ridings percentage-wise and those where they came in the highest (2nd being higher than 3rd, etc.) place (perhaps the same, but not necessarily)?

QS got 26.03% in Gouin and 29.38% in Mercier. David ran in Gouin and Khadir in Mercier. And 14.16% in Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques.

they finished a close second in both those ridings. They are very working class francophone ridings.

Near Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Rosemont, two generally poor areas of Montreal.

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The Liberals and PQ will both improve in those constituencies, but I think the QS will remain at its same levels.

The Greenies have no chance of winning anything. Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode). It will be interesting to compare the PVQ results to those of the federal Greens, who performed best in English-speaking Quebec in October. I'll check the two other ridings where the Greens finished second in 2007. I'm pretty sure they were distant seconds to Liberals in the West Island.

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The Liberals and PQ will both improve in those constituencies, but I think the QS will remain at its same levels.

The Greenies have no chance of winning anything. Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode). It will be interesting to compare the PVQ results to those of the federal Greens, who performed best in English-speaking Quebec in October. I'll check the two other ridings where the Greens finished second in 2007. I'm pretty sure they were distant seconds to Liberals in the West Island.

The two others, apart from NdG, are D'Arcy-McGee and Westmount-Saint Louis. Both wealthy English.

Third place in Outremont, Jacques-Cartier (West Island) and Robert-Baldwin (also West Island).

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A look at Leger's recent huge polling spree I mentioned earlier.

Francophone: PQ 40, Lib 38, ADQ 14, QS 4, Greenies 4
Non-Francophone: Lib 78, PQ 11, ADQ 6, Greenies 4, QS 1

Regions (name coloured according to 2007 winner. Not going to attempt Montreal since I don't know where Leger broke down the city).

MTL-East: Lib 42, PQ 42, QS 9, ADQ 4, PVQ 3 (MoE 7)
MTL-West: Lib 70, PQ 16, PVQ 5, QS 5, ADQ 4 (MoE 7)
Laval: Lib 56, PQ 25, ADQ 13, PVQ 5, QS 5 (MoE 7)
Laurentides-Lanaudiere: PQ 42, Lib 27, ADQ 19, PVQ 6, QS 6 (MoE 6)
Monteregie: PQ 44, Lib 40, ADQ 12, PVQ 2, QS 1 (MoE 6)
Outaouais: Lib 53, PQ 27, ADQ 10, PVQ 6, QS 3 (MoE 7)
Abitibi: PQ 50, Lib 35, ADQ 6, QS 3, PVQ 2 (MoE 10)
Mauricie/Centre-du-Quebec: Lib 39, PQ 38, ADQ 14, PVQ 6, QS 3 (MoE 7)
Estrie: Lib 54, PQ 30, PVQ 7, ADQ 5, QS 4 (MoE 7)
Capitale-Nationale: Lib 45, PQ 29, ADQ 20, QS 3, PVQ 2 (MoE 5)
Chaudiere-Appalaches: Lib 51, ADQ 29, PQ 16, PVQ 3, QS 1 (MoE 6)
Saguenay/Cote Nord: Lib 46, PQ 40, ADQ 9, PVQ 2, QS 2 (MoE 6)
Bas-Saint-Laurent/Gaspesie: Lib 45, PQ 36, ADQ 14, PVQ 2, QS 2 (MoE 7)

Crude and rough representation of that:

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The Liberals and PQ will both improve in those constituencies, but I think the QS will remain at its same levels.

The Greenies have no chance of winning anything. Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode). It will be interesting to compare the PVQ results to those of the federal Greens, who performed best in English-speaking Quebec in October. I'll check the two other ridings where the Greens finished second in 2007. I'm pretty sure they were distant seconds to Liberals in the West Island.

Which is interesting, because the PVQ is pretty much a sovereigntist party. They just wont admit it.

The 1989 Greenies were openly nats. They got their best result in Saguenay (15%).

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Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode).

NdG (for the most part, anyway) isn't exactly wealthy. Especially not for an Anglo district.

You're right. I confused it with other Montreal neighborhoods. But definitely richer than in the past and middle income.

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11% of Anglophones are pequistes?

The poll said "non-francophones", which isn't quite the same - the PQ has some support among groups like Latinos and Arabs that are more likely to assimilate to francophone after a generation or two.

Especially immigrants from other Francophone nations. Still, non-francophone samples are small and have a high MoE. Best not to take a whole lot out of it.

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Segma riding polls (=fail)

Sherbrooke

Jean Charest (LIB): 50%
Laurent-Paul Maheux (PQ): 33%
Christian Bibeau (QS): 6%
Jacques Joly (ADQ): 5%
Steeve Dubois (VRT): 5%
Hubert Richard (ind.): 1%

Bonaventure (4.9% moe)

Nathalie Normandeau (LIB): 67%
Marcel Landry (PQ): 31%
Patricia Chartier (QS): 2%
Denise Porlier (ADQ): 1%

Gaspé (4.9% moe) Lib gain from PQ

Georges Mamelonet (LIB): 50%
Annie Chouinard (PQ): 45%
Marcelle Guay (ADQ): 4%
Others 1%

Matane (11.3% moe)

Pascal Bérubé (PQ): 61%
Éric Plourde (LIB): 31%
Denis Paquette (ADQ): 7%
Gilles Arteau (QS): 2%

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LOL ADQ. 1% in Bonaventure, behind QS, and behind QS in Sherbrooke, too.

I'm predicting a 1998-like result for the ADQ.

Their results in some parts of Montreal will be hilarious.

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Does anyone think that the Bloc joining a de facto governing coalition will have any effect on the Quebec election?

Very little, if any.

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PQ internal sez Lib 40.4, PQ 34.5, ADQ 16.7. Francophone vote would be PQ 40.4%, LIB 33.1%, ADQ 18.9%

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New poll for the three Mauricie ridings mentioned previously.

Champlain (600 répondants)

    * Noëlla Champagne PQ: 48%
    * Pierre Michel Auger LIB: 30%
    * Luc Arvisais ADQ: 19%
    * Autres: 3%

Saint-Maurice (600 répondants)

    * Claude Pinard PQ: 40%
    * Céline Trépanier LIB: 35%
    * Robert Deschamps ADQ: 15%
    * Autres: 10%

Trois-Rivières (810 répondants)

    * Yves St-Pierre PQ: 37%
    * Danielle St-Amand LIB: 34%
    * Sébastien Proulx ADQ: 19%
    * Louis Lacroix VRT: 6%
    * Alex Noël QS: 4%

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... and now for something completely different for the first time in the history of world politics a psychic who finds missing children internationally is running as a candidate.
I'm running as an Independent candidate in the Quebec provincial elrctions in the riding of Verdun. I am the only candidate who has a B.A. in Political Science while every other candidate, except for Mr. Gautrin, has neither the experience nor the educational background to handle such a position.
I am anti-nuclear and believe that the very recent funding by Jean Charest and the Liberal party of $8,000,000,000 to refurbish the Gentilly nuclear reactors is an assault on our children and every other generation that follows as radioactive waste lasts millions of years pollutes the land, waters, and air (radioactive dust). $8,000,000,000 worth of all Quebecers money would have been better spent on solar and wind energy. The technologies are already here and $8,000,000,000 worth of solar and wind power production would be well worth it.
I am pro environment, health care and social services
Here's the ballot

http://www.monvote.qc.ca/en/candidat_liste.asp?lg=en&parti=&circ=398


Here's my website

http://childsearchpsychic.tripod.com

Go screw yourself and stop trolling.

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'bout time. Serious poll. CROP

Lib 45% (=)
PQ 29% (-3)
ADQ 15% (+3)
Greenies 6% (+1)
QS 5% (=)
Others 1% (+1)

Francophone: PQ 36%, LIB 35%, ADQ 17%, Greenies 6%, QS 5%, Oth 1%.
Non-Francophone: Lib 89%, Greenies 4%, ADQ 3%, PQ 2%, QS 2%
Best PM: Charest 43, Marois 24, Mario 13, NOTA 12, Und 8
This is boring: 54% (-3) agree with me.
Approve: 48-48 approve of the government. -3 for approvals, +3 for disapproval.

We'll wait for Leger, who is supposed to get a poll out this weekend, to see if the PQ drop CROP sees continues.


Roundup of all predictions online

HDKP Dec 5

Lib 82
PQ 41
Mario 2

Geloso-Breguet Dec 4

Lib 82
PQ 36
Mario 7

They note the PQ is near 2007 level and the QS is at 5%, so they're saying that a QS gain in Mercier might be a possibility on those numbers.

DemSpace Nov 25

Lib 69
PQ 52
Mario 4

QuebecPol Dec 5

Lib 73
PQ 49
Mario 3

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'bout time. Serious poll. Leger

Lib 45% (-1)
PQ 32% (-2)
ADQ 15% (+3)
QS 4% (=)
Greenies 3% (-1)
Others 1% (+1)

Francophone: PQ 38%, LIB 36%, ADQ 18%, QS 5%, Greenies 3%
Non-Francophone: Lib 79%, PQ 9%, Greenies 5%, ADQ 5%,  QS 1%, Oth 1%.
Best PM: Charest 38, Marois 29, Mario 12, David 4, NOTA 9, Und 7


Angus-Reid. While I'd normally advise you to laugh at them, the poor suckers deserve credit for doing best (IIRC) in October and actually being the "best" pollster in Quebec 2007 (though they put ADQ first ahead of the Libs, they were the only ones with the PQ in third). But then, this is an interwebs polls. But then, so was their 2007 poll. Whatever.

Lib 42%
PQ 36%
ADQ 13%
QS 5%
Greenies 3%
Others 1%

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QS in 2007. Errors possible.

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Elections today! Apparently, Bernard Derome is hosting the election night, the same twit who predicted Charest's defeat live on TV last year.

My sh**t prediction, fwiw

Lib 45%
PQ 33%
ADQ 14%
QS 4%
Greenies 4%

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When doest the polls close [qm]

20:00 IIRC.

CBC map that they'll probably update.

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When doest the polls close [qm]

20:00 IIRC.

CBC map that they'll probably update.

That's 1am GMT, right [qm]

Correct.

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Does QS have any shot at Gouin or Mercier?

Possibly.

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Are they running the same candidates?

Yes. David in Gouin, Khadir in Mercier.

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Are they running the same candidates?

Yes. David in Gouin, Khadir in Mercier.

Why are those areas so hardcore separatist?

Working-class Francophone districts, as said before in this thread.

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Isn't part of the gay quarter in Mercier? Or am I confusing it with something else again.

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Looks like turnout will be down a sh**tload.

Uninteresting election and *freezing* cold day today.