Why I think John Thune is the GOP's best chance in 2012

[pragmatic liberal]

Possibly, but it's hard to handicap these things in advance. Even I thought Fred Thompson would be a strong candidate when his running became a possibility.

I do think that Daniels and Thune are - on paper - the strongest potential Republicans. Despite the current political climate, most presidents win reelection, and so long as the economy is growing Obama should win reelection. Moreover, as you pointed out, given his political skills and the weakness of the Republican field, he could probably win reelection even with approvals in the mid-40s.

Daniels would on paper be the strongest, and given that even many Democrats like him, if Obama is unpopular, he could be a perfectly adequate alternative, enough to win. But he's not a particularly intimidating or charismatic presence and that could doom him.

Thune would seem stronger in those respects, though he runs the risk of coming across as a bit of a lightweight.

However, Thune would be smart to run. Given the GOP's penchant of nominating a prior runner-up, even a credible losing bid would bode well for his getting the nod in 2016. Hell, even if he is the 2012 nominee but only narrowly loses to Obama, it's not inconceivable the party could give him a second chance in 2016.

[pragmatic liberal]

Thune/Jindal would probably be a good ticket. These two would be acceptable to all major wings of the party, would project an appealing image to moderates, and would be generally credible leaders.

Of course, against an incumbent, their success would mostly depend on how Obama's approvals are. Even a poor pairing would be sufficient if Obama were in the low 40s or 30s. And even a strong pairing would have little traction if he's firmly in the 50s. The main upshot to a Thune/Jindal ticket would be that if Obama's in the mid-to-upper 40s -- which would suggest a very tight race -- they'd be well-placed to be on the winning side.