General Election 2010 Forum Forecasts

[minionofmidas]

Bold predictions thruout... (needed to get a broader picture, had that feeling since the first one). I'd be surprised if the election really goes that badly for Labour. Though I'm aware there musta been a million people saying the same thing in 1997, an election I remember well but that was before I was internetsavvy. Still. I doubt Labour'll get routed that badly.

[minionofmidas]

Well, Harry's showing Labour at a minimum of 104 seats outside Yorkshire & Humberside, the West Midlands and Wales. Which probably comes out to, what, 160-175 nationally?

[minionofmidas]

I have 2 questions:

What happens if no party achieved a majority? Will we then see a coalition in the UK and who can form a coalition with whom?

The leader of the largest party will become Prime Minister. He is likely to attempt to run a minority government, preferring longterm instability to shortterm constitutional improvising that could backfire. A coalition *might* become an option, if the conditions are just right (ie Labour-LD or Tory-LD has a solid majority but Labour or the Tories are quite far from a majority of their own) but it's unlikelyish even then.

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The first is highly improbable. The latter is impossible.

[minionofmidas]

There is one seat the BNP might gain if hell really boils over for Labour. There is no seat UKIP might gain no matter what.