British General Election Constituency Predictions

[minionofmidas]

Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

[minionofmidas]

Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

Nigel Farage trying to beat the speaker.

Ah, right.

[minionofmidas]

From most Labourite to most Conservative region perhaps? ie, do Wales next?

[minionofmidas]

Labour holding on to Somerset NE? Music to my ears.
Carlisle and Wavertree though... ho hm.

[minionofmidas]

Does anyone think Labour can pick up Blaenau Gwent?

Impossible to tell from this far apart, but doesn't sound like it.

Will People's Voice have a candidate in Islwyn (or is it Torfaen - the one where they have a couple of councillors)?

[minionofmidas]

Ceredigion is a complete toss-up, imo. I give Plaid the edge because they carried it in the European election, although I know that's not the best indicator. Ynys Mon, I'd say this should be a pretty easy pick up for Plaid; i'd be extremely shocked if Labour held on. The majority isn't that much to overturn considering Labour's unpopularity. I don't really know about Newport East, it seems like Labour should be able to hold on, but it'll be close.

The Isle of Mona is an odd place that doesn't follow national swings. And last booted an incumbent in 1951. And last didn't switch parties when an incumbent stood down in 1929.
Seriously. Look it up.

It's impossible to tell for sure, of course - as are a couple of other Welsh seats - but it's the only one I'd predict differently from the map posted.

[minionofmidas]

There are at least four possible outcomes on the Island this year. One is much less likely than the others and another is somewhat less likely than the first two. The trouble with the place is that loyalties are as much about personality as party. Its a real shame that we don't get ward breakdowns for parliamentary elections, because Anglesey's would be nothing short of hilarious.

I assume the third is a Tory gain... what's the fourth least likely one?

[minionofmidas]

I am not sure Labour will lose Sutton & Devonport before Kingswood or Gloucester.

With the myriad LD-Con marginals in the Southwest, only a fool would try to predict all of them from across the Channel, and so I won't pretend I can offer any kind of comment. I'm excepting Cornwall from that - I'm interested in the reasoning behind the prediction of the Tories taking one seat (not zero, not several) or why this one. (Although if it's something to do with being quasi new, I can see why this one is the quasi-new seat most likely to go Conservative.)

[minionofmidas]

The London map is just too damn small. I can't be bothered to figure out exactly what you're predicting.

In Scotland, I'm of the school of thought that says the SNP will do almost as well as at Holyrood and you're not; there's no point arguing with such different expectations, really.

Though what about Willie Rennie - you're thinking Labour'll regain Dunfermline?

[minionofmidas]

He's predicting the Tories to gain Poplar & Limehouse but not Hammersmith - which is certainly an interesting prediction.

But perfectly reasonable in a sense. -_-

There are at least four possible outcomes on the Island this year. One is much less likely than the others and another is somewhat less likely than the first two. The trouble with the place is that loyalties are as much about personality as party. Its a real shame that we don't get ward breakdowns for parliamentary elections, because Anglesey's would be nothing short of hilarious.

I assume the third is a Tory gain... what's the fourth least likely one?

Actually the Tory gain is the least likely one. The third one is Peter Rogers (who is running again) winning.

I'm aware of him - but I just figured that unless he collapses badly, we can 100% rule out the Tory gain scenario and are left with just two possible outcomes.

[minionofmidas]

We can't rule out  the Tory collapsing completely

I disagree.

That's basically asking the posh English pensioner incomers to vote for a Welshman not endorsed by a national party (that isn't Labour). Can't see it.

[minionofmidas]

33. DORSET SOUTH - Labour's only gain in 2001.

No.

[minionofmidas]

Oddly defined region map there.

A lot of people seem to forget one thing about the notionals in Romsey - the newly added territory has a lot of LD potential and never previously a tactical reason to vote for them.

Also not so sure I'd predict Tory gains in Dover, whatever that seat they herded a lot of Labour voters into in Northern Kent (Chatham & Aylesford I think), Hastings (okay, I probably *would* in that case), or Kemptown...

Though all are of course possible.

[minionofmidas]

Actually that should be a Labour Hold owed almost entirely to a lack of clarity about who the challenger is.
Or it could be a Tory gain.
Or a Lib Dem gain.

Probably in that order of likelihood, though. Though I'm willing to compromise on the order of first and second.

[minionofmidas]

Define "radical".

[minionofmidas]

Define "radical".

As in 'everything is ripped up and drawn again from scratch' - it's the usual word used to describe that with boundary changes here for some reason.

So what makes Derby more radical than York in that case? Or Gwynnedd, for what it's worth? (One thing is the obvious statutory sense behind those remaps. I'd have to take a closer look at what happened at Derby.)