VA-05: SurveyUSA: Hurt Crushes Perriello (user search)
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  VA-05: SurveyUSA: Hurt Crushes Perriello (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-05: SurveyUSA: Hurt Crushes Perriello  (Read 2729 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« on: July 22, 2010, 05:07:21 AM »



This district's democratic parts ought to be hard to squeeze out... 58-35 sounds unlikely. That's, like, pretty near the Democratic floor. (Though yes, Generic R would usually beat Generic D and a liberal Charlottesville Democrat beating the incumbent here was a hard-to-believe fluke.)

Tiny subsamples are of course liable to throw up errors like these, but I doubt Black turnout will be so low that 24% of the population cast 13% of the votes. Or that Charlottesville turnout will be so low that 18-34s become the most Republican age group.

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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2010, 02:59:12 AM »



This district's democratic parts ought to be hard to squeeze out... 58-35 sounds unlikely. That's, like, pretty near the Democratic floor. (Though yes, Generic R would usually beat Generic D and a liberal Charlottesville Democrat beating the incumbent here was a hard-to-believe fluke.)

Tiny subsamples are of course liable to throw up errors like these, but I doubt Black turnout will be so low that 24% of the population cast 13% of the votes. Or that Charlottesville turnout will be so low that 18-34s become the most Republican age group.



Considering this district voted 64% Rep 36% Dem in 2004 and 59% Rep to 40% Dem in 2006, this poll believable.
With joke opponents. Perriello would have to murder his boyfriend live on tv to fall below that.
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