2011 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Stuttgart II is another very narrow Green gain.

With just 240 precincts missing, RhP is SPD 35.9, CDU 35.2, Greens 15.3, FDP 4.2, Left 3.0.

[minionofmidas]

Darmstadt mayoral election, 84 out of 117 precincts:

Jochen Partsch, Green, 36.3
Walter Hoffmann, SPD, incumbent, 29.9
Rafael Reißer, CDU, 26.5
The SPD has held the post uninterrupted since 1945. There'll be a runoff between the top two finishers.

[minionofmidas]

Lörrach Greenies can't vote tactical.

CDU 31.8 (-6.9)
Greens 28.0 (+16.2)
SPD 27.7 (-4.5)

[minionofmidas]

The Schuldenbremse seems to have passed disappointingly easily - probably a tad over 70%. Oh well. Most places are counting that first, apparently.
Frankfurt's election site is down. Wiesbaden has no results up yet.
Offenbach is over half in, so I'll just post that.

CDU 27.5 (-4.3)
SPD 26.2 (-7.2)
Greens 23.5 (+11.3)
Left 7.4 (+1.2)
REP 4.1 (-0.2)
FDP 3.9 (-3.7)
Pirates 2.8 (+2.
FW 2.3 (-0.3)
FNO (who?) 2.2 (+2.2)

Remember that that's only unchanged ballots - on these kind of results, the order of the first three parties is wholly up in the air.
Also, doesn't look as if local issues mattered at all. Lol. The city's got a traffic light coalition currently.

CDU has pulled ahead a bit with 82 out of 89 precincts in, and should add another tad given what's still out. Probably enough of a buffer to have "won" on the final count.

[minionofmidas]

CDU held both Karlsruhe seats by tiny margins, and has also held Stuttgart III.

[minionofmidas]

No idea what the nine missing precincts are like, but Mainz I was always going to be the Greens' strongest constituency in RhP.

Currently SPD 33.6, Greens 27.2, CDU 26.7 on direct vote and
SPD 31.0, Greens 29.5, CDU 25.2 on list vote.

[minionofmidas]

So far there's 7 Green seats in BW (3 in Stuttgart, 1 in Mannheim, Heidelberg, Tübingen, the misleadingly named Freiburg seat), and 1 SPD (the other Mannheim seat). Unless there's a minor miracle in... say, Konstanz?... that should be it for non-CDU seats.

[minionofmidas]

Ahahahahaha.

Egelsbach (between Frankfurt and Darmstadt, nearer Darmstadt) partial municipal results.

Greens 33.9 (+21.6)
SPD 25.9 (-7.3)
CDU 24.4 (-5.7)
WGE 11.0 (-5.1)
FDP 4.8 (-3.4)
turnout 50.2 (-8.

[minionofmidas]

The Grenns gain Freiburg I

Making for a nice big splatch of green on a winners' map.

Bizarre constituency that. Parts of Freiburg with the emptier parts of the High Schwarzwald.

[minionofmidas]

Offenbach is all in. Frankfurt is down and has been for hours. I haven't the slightest clue what's actually going on in Frankfurt.

CDU 30.7 (-4.6)
SPD 25.6 (-6.6)
Greens 22.2 (+11.3)
Left 6.3 (+1.1)
FDP 4.1 (-3.4)
REP 4.0 (-0.1)
FW 2.6 (-0.3)
Pirates 2.5 (+2.5)
FNO 2.0 (+2.0)

Turnout 33.8%
Yeah, laugh out loud if you like.

[minionofmidas]

And in Oberursel, the CDU-FDP coalition has likely lost its majority. CDU will be strongest, Greens in second.

[minionofmidas]

Greens gain Konstanz, four CDU holds, only the seat east of Heidelberg (Sinsheim?) still out. Using some silly little map on the SWR website here.

[minionofmidas]

Groß-Gerau wins a price as the first municipality (that I noticed) where the Schuldenbremse is under 60%. Even Darmstadt was 60.2%.

[minionofmidas]

Neu-Isenburg. Major suburb just south of Frankfurt.

CDU 43.9 (-8.1)
Greens 22.7 (+8.7)
SPD 22.0 (-1.3)

[minionofmidas]

Kassel mayoral election, final result

Bertram Hilgen, SPD, incumbent 51.3
Ernst Wegener, CDU 23.4
Andreas Jürgens, Greens 15.0
3 also rans

Hilgen avoids a runoff.

[minionofmidas]

The city's own website is still down to me, but from the rumors on the FR liveticker, it seems the CDU is narrowly or narrowishly ahead of the Greens, who're at 25%. The SPD is in third. The FDP and FW are at 3.odd each, the Left is doing okay. The Pirates are mildly disappointed at being behind the FDP.

[minionofmidas]

Thank you, thank you, thank you Neue Presse. You are a greasy local rag but at least you get the numbers out.

CDU: 31,4 Prozent
Grüne: 25,1 Prozent
SPD: 22,8 Prozent
FDP: 3,2 Prozent
Die Linke: 5,7 Prozent

With a little under half the precincts.

[minionofmidas]

With 173 out of 200 precincts in, Greens are second (to the SPD) in Kassel city council.

[minionofmidas]

Final BW result!

turnout 66.2 (+12.
CDU 39.0 (-5.2) which is actually a solid gain in raw votes.
Greens 24.2 (+12.5)
SPD 23.1 (-2.1)
FDP 5.3 (-5.4)
Left 2.8 (-0.3)
Pirates 2.1
REP 1.1 etc

Now someone find the final seats.

[minionofmidas]

NOW it's time for the champagne.

CDU 60
Greens 36
SPD 35
FDP 7

no worries.

[minionofmidas]

NOW it's time for the champagne.

CDU 60
Greens 36
SPD 35
FDP 7

no worries.

138 seats ? I thought there were 139.

There are 120 plus what's needed to get things proportional. The problem is that, unlike in other states, the Ausgleich is done separately in four regions, which basically works as a small bonus for the largest party.

[minionofmidas]

'kay, I'm off. RhP somehow stopped updating an hour ago.

[minionofmidas]

Ugh, the nuclear fearmongering worked.

That's a complete misrepresentation of the dynamics involved. Unless maybe you're thinking of nuclear fearmongering 25 years ago.
(Not coincidentally, current official platforms of Greens, SPD and Left on the issue are identical, SPD and Left added lotsa posters on the issue in the final stages of the campaign.)

What befell the CDU and FDP here is better described as an events-driven loss of narrative control.

[minionofmidas]

I still can't find Frankfurt precinct results.

Overall "trend" (ie unmodified ballots only) result for Frankfurt

CDU 31.7 (-4.3)
Greens 27.6 (+12.3)
SPD 20.1 (-3.9)
Left 5.3 (-1.3)
FW 3.7 (+0.9)
FDP 3.6 (-2.9)
FAG 1.3 (-2.5)
Pirates 1.8 (+1.8)
NPD 1.3 (+0.1)
Ökolinx 1.2 (-)
REP 0.9 (-0.6)
others 0.4 or less

If past elections are any indication, expect the CDU to end up ~30 and the Greens at ~29.5 to 30.
Minor others will go up, some might end up getting a seat yet. Ditfurth might drag her No.2 onto the council (who's also her significant other).
Disastrous SPD result.
Are people finally aquiescing in the by-now unstoppable, wholly unnecessary airport enlargement, or is that another casualty of "OMG I gotta vote Green coz events serve as a powerful reminder to me that I've always been worried about Nuclear"? Bit of both, probably.
Oh yeah, on trend results the Greens are strongest party in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Ortsbezirke - and they're quite narrowly behind in several others.

District councils and five indy city councils, summed for Hesse

CDU 33.4 (-5.1)
SPD 30.9 (-3.8)
Greens 20.0 (+10.8)
FW 5.3 (+0.1)
FDP 3.5 (-2.3)
Left and Left-affiliated joint or indy slates 3.4 (+0.3)
Pirates 1.2 (+1.2)
etc
turnout 47.7 (+1.9)

Referendum ended up at 70.0% yes.

[minionofmidas]

Ugh, the nuclear fearmongering worked.

That's a complete misrepresentation of the dynamics involved. Unless maybe you're thinking of nuclear fearmongering 25 years ago.
(Not coincidentally, current official platforms of Greens, SPD and Left on the issue are identical, SPD and Left added lotsa posters on the issue in the final stages of the campaign.)

What befell the CDU and FDP here is better described as an events-driven loss of narrative control.

Ah, well, I'll not pretend to have any understanding of the forces at play here. Would you like to correct my misrepresentation?

I already tried with the post you quoted.
The Greens didn't go "OMG there's a nuclear accident at Fukushima, we must play that to the utmost". In fact, they didn't. It's just that everybody - every party's voters - suddenly started caring over that issue first and foremost. (Which I agree is not... entirely rational. Especially in municipal elections. Or even in Rhineland-Pfalz which has no nuclear power plants - that said, big Green gains were always on the cards there anyways.) Which is why it's relevant that SPD and Left didn't benefit at all despite being in full agreement - they're not commonly associated with the issue, and they're considered less credible on the issue.*
That's what all the campaign workers say - "noone wanted to hear about our achievements anymore, everybody was asking about radioactivity".
The other thing is of course that the CDU and FDP reacted with open panic and mass flip-flopping (that noone found credible). Which obviously feeds the panic. And that they'd been ramming pro-nuclear law changes down our throats just before.

*Though, despite a wing of the party trying hard to sabotage it from the inside at the time, Schröder's Nuclear Exit Strategy is feted by SPD insiders today as one of his government's prouder achievements. Honestly feted - Gabriel is just as anti-nuclear as the Greens, and probably always has been.
And of course, the Left's positions on environmental and societal issues are identical to the Greens' anyways. It's just that the party leadership doesn't care. Which is why they're identical to the Greens' - the leadership let the people who cared write the plank. The people who cared tend to be disappointed ex-Greens. This makes Wahlomat tests somewhat worthless, as it's a large part of the reason almost any Green voter get high Left results too.