2011 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

NOW it's time for the champagne.

CDU 60
Greens 36
SPD 35
FDP 7

no worries.

138 seats ? I thought there were 139.

There are 120 plus what's needed to get things proportional. The problem is that, unlike in other states, the Ausgleich is done separately in four regions, which basically works as a small bonus for the largest party.

Oh, I see. A uselessly complicated systems that partly screw proportionality.

But after all, that's fine, nationwide proportional would just have switched a CDU seat to the FDP.

The CDU won 60 direct seats, so that can't be right.

[minionofmidas]

Fun fact: should the 26-vote margin in Tübingen evaporate & flip on final results (as opposed to the provisional final result we have now), CDU and Greens will both get one extra seat, changing nothing, really.

Also, had they still used the law as it was til 2006 (same as now but D'Hondt instead of Sainte-Lague) green-red would have a single seat's majority.

[minionofmidas]

Well, here's an excellent FDP result! Frankfurt suburb of Steinbach. "Crunchiest" place to the northwest.

CDU   28,5   (-18.2)
SPD   26,1   (-3.6)
FDP   18,3   (+8.
GRÜNE   27,1   (+13.0)

[minionofmidas]

The Greens in Germany seem borderline Communist

Communists have this bizarre fetish for large powerful antidemocratic quango-operated industrial combines that is a prerequisite to liking nuclear as an energy source. See Xahar.
You must mean teh Greens in Germany seem borderline Anarchist.

[minionofmidas]

Half student housing in the former French Army barracks, half brand new, not posh, owner occupied apartments. Add the dynamics of this election, and the general studenty-lefty ambience of Tübingen town.

[minionofmidas]

Two notes on Black-Green coalitions. I have stated too many times before that they can work only when they are conceived as a variant form of a Grand Coalition, and even then they'll cost the Greens votes.
I think even Frankfurt's Black-Green coalition, which was conceived as such and was reasonably successful (much more so than Hamburg, on both counts) was still costing the Greens votes this election. Fukushima gains papered that over somewhat, but, really, at 20% statewide the Greens have absolutely no business coming anything but a solid first place in Frankfurt. They polled 37% (on unchanged ballots alone) in Darmstadt, surely 27% in Frankfurt is low by that standard.
But perhaps the more interesting - and more novel - line of thought is, when the Greens successfully take the SPD's place in Grand Coalitions, where does that leave the SPD? What are its options, besides hoping for a breakdown in CDU-Green relations? What does it stand for? How does it campaign? If the Left weren't firmly established yet, it might try to, as it were, be the Left, but now even that's not going to work - people would find the original more credible.
The Frankfurt situation leaves the SPD in a horrible trap, only partly of its own making. Its continued failures are not solely the result of the local SPD's undeniable incompetence.

[minionofmidas]

Yah, looks like they never intended to release the partial count by precinct or neighborhood to the public. We'll get the final results broken down as soon as they're available.
I think they did the same thing in 2006, actually.

[minionofmidas]

Darmstadt is already pretty far with its final counting, and if I understood things right Kassel is actually finished already.
It seems that, contrary to past elections, the Greens are losing on the final count vs. the trend. By quite a bit.
Not really surprising if you think about it, but I hadn't been expecting it. Green casual supporters far more motivated than other parties' casual supporters translates as more uninformed Green voters (as a share of the electorate) than usual, which in turn translates as more straight ticket voters.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, final counts are in for Wiesbaden, Hanau and Bad Homburg, and they confirm that.

format: Party share (change on 2006) seats (change) change on unchanged ballots tally

Wiesbaden
CDU 32.7 (-3.5) 27 (-2) -0.8
SPD 28.9 (-1.3) 23 (-2) +1.8
Greens 19.1 (+7.0) 16 (+6) -1.8
FDP 5.0 (-4.0) 4 (-3) +0.4
Left 4.1 (+0.8) 3 (0) 0
BLW 3.8 (+0.1) 3 (0) +0.3
REP 2.2 (-2.8) 2 (-2) -0.3
Pirates 2.1 (+2.1) 2 (+2) -0.1
FW 1.2 (+1.2) 1 (+1) 0
three others without seats

Hanau
SPD 36.5 (+7.2) 22 (+5) +2.7
CDU 27.0 (-2.8) 16 (-2) -2.2
Greens 15.2 (+6.9) 9 (+4) -1.0
BfH 7.1 (-1.9) 4 (-1) +0.1
Left 5.3 (+0.1) 3 (0) +0.2
FDP 4.7 (-7.2) 3 (-4) +0.7
REP 4.2 (-2.4) 2 (-2) -0.5

Bad Homburg
CDU 40.3 (-1.9) 20 (-1) +2.2
Greens 23.6 (+12.4) 12 (+6) -4.9
SPD 14.6 (-2.3) 7 (-1) +0.5
FDP 7.1 (-3.6) 3 (-2) +1.2
BLB 6.1 (-2.5) 3 (-1) +0.7
NHU 4.7 (-1.6) 2 (-1) +1.1
Left 2.0 (+0.2) 1 (0) -0.3
REP 1.7 (-0.6) 1 (0) -0.3

The Homburg preliminary results look like political pornography in retrospect... Of course, it's still a huge swing. But that's not surprising given the political earthquake of May 2009 (when Green Michael Korwisi won the direct election for Lord Mayor, an office the CDU had held since 1948.)

[minionofmidas]

Similarly in Vilbel. The CDU majority has been broken, but they have a choice of FDP or FW to make up the missing votes. On the preliminary results, green-red had seemed possible.

[minionofmidas]

The Kassel result on the city website looks really final, complete with individual votes; so even though it's not listed on the state site yet, I'll take it.

Well, I'll be. Now it's up on the state website, and it's different.

Kassel
SPD 36.3 (-3.5) 26 (-2) -0.3
Greens 24.9 (+9.5) 18 (+7) -0.8
CDU 24.2 (-4.9) 17 (-4) +0.3
Left 6.7 (-0.1) 5 (0) +0.4
Pirates 2.7 (+2.7) 2 (+2) -0.1
FDP 2.5 (-3.0) 2 (-2) +0.3
FW 1.8 (0) 1 (0) -0.1
AUF 0.8 (-0.9) 0 (-1) +0.2

Really unlucky for AUF.

Wetzlar
SPD 34.9 (-4.2) 21 (-2) -1.0
CDU 29.5 (-6.5) 17 (-4) +1.7
Greens 14.7 (+6.7) 9 (+4) -3.0
FWG 9.2 (-0.9) 5 (-1) +1.6
FDP 7.6 (+0.8) 5 (+1) +1.4
Left 4.1 (+4.1) 2 (+2) -0.7

[minionofmidas]

Well the Greens have really become the largest party on Seeheim-Jugenheim council (suburb of Darmstadt.) 35.9%, vs 32.4% CDU, 26.6% SPD, 5.0% FDP. Looks a contender for best result statewide.
Oh, and the SPD is largest party in Sulzbach. LOL. (Well, by votes. SPD and CDU are tied on seats.)

[minionofmidas]

Mappus has resigned. So has Brüderle - as state FDP chair, not as minister.

[minionofmidas]

Gießen. Again, from a city website.

SPD 33.6 (+0.4) 20 (0) +0.5
CDU 26.5 (-9.5) 16 (-5) +0.9
Greens 20.7 (+7.9) 12 (+4) -2.6
FW 4.6 (+0.8) 3 (+1) +0.1
Left 4.0 (-1.9) 2 (-2) -0.4
FDP 3.6 (-2.1) 2 (-1) +0.4
Pirates 2.8 (+2.8) 2 (+2) 0
LB 2.3 (+2.3) 1 (+1) +0.7
BLG 1.9 (-0.5) 1 (0) +0.5

Same thing with Marburg.

SPD 37.3 (+4.3) 22 (+2) +1.9
CDU 23.0 (-9.0) 14 (-5) -0.9
Greens 22.6 (+5.2) 13 (+3) -1.2
Left 7.4 (-1.4) 4 (-1) 0
FDP 2.5 (-2.4) 2 (-1) +0.1
MBL 2.5 (-0.7) 2 (0) +0.1
BfM 2.2 (+2.2) 1 (+1) +0.1
Pirates 1.9 (+1.9) 1 (+1) -0.1
APPD 0.5 (-0.1) 0 (0) 0

And with Fulda.

CDU 51.0 (-7.6) 30 (-5) +0.7
SPD 18.4 (-1.8) 11 (-1) -0.3
Greens 17.8 (+9.4) 10 (+5) -0.4
CWE 4.6 (+1.3) 3 (+1) +0.2
FDP 3.4 (-1.5) 2 (-1) +0.5
Left 3.0 (+0.4) 2 (+1) -0.6
REP 1.8 (-0.2) 1 (0) -0.2

It is conceivable that all of these are wrong; that the way these cities use their software means that these results include final results from those precincts where the count is final and partial results from those precincts where only the partial count is available. I'll find out I suppose.

Rüsselsheim city website says but one precinct missing.

[minionofmidas]

Hamburg is not really a direct seat winner map, as these were 3-5 member seats. :P

Marburg and Fulda results above confirmed on state website, which is still without a Gießen result. Hmmm.

Rüsselsheim
CDU 34.2 (+1.3) 15 (0) -1.4
SPD 33.4 (-8.6) 15 (-4) +1.1
Greens 19.0 (+10.2) 9 (+5) -0.8
Left 6.0 (+0.4) 3 (+1) -0.4
WiR 2.8 (+2.8) 1 (+1) +0.6
FDP 2.6 (-2.2) 1 (-1) +0.2
FNR 2.0 (+2.0) 1 (+1) +0.7
Liste Rüssel (5.8 / 3 seats in 2006) splintered into WiR and FNR.

Darmstadt
Greens 32.9 (+17.4) 23 (+12) -4.4
CDU 24.8 (-5.3) 18 (-3) +2.0
SPD 21.3 (-7.7) 15 (-6) +1.6
Uffbasse 6.5 (+0.2) 5 (0) +0.2
Left 3.9 (+1.8) 3 (+1) -0.2
UWIGA 3.5 (-2.5) 3 (-1) +0.3
FDP 3.2 (-3.6) 2 (-3) +0.6
Pirates 2.9 (+2.9) 2 (+2) -0.3

WASG (2.0 / 1 seat) and Die Frauen (1.0 / 1 seat) did not run. (Well duh, WASG and Left merged. Darmstadt was pretty much the only place they ever ran against each other anyways. Besides the obvious, ie Berlin 2006.) Not going to actually happen, but strictly speaking that's a 36-35 majority for the left, not including the SPD - UWIGA and Uffbasse are to the left of the SPD (in issue positions but not in vote base, in UWIGA's case).

Offenbach is still out. I haven't checked the city page to see how far they are.

Frankfurt is not quite entirely complete - one Bergen precinct's results are described as partial.
CDU 30.5 (-5.5) 28 (-6) -1.2
Greens 25.8 (+10.5) 24 (+10) -1.5
SPD 21.3 (-2.7) 20 (-2) +1.2
Left 5.4 (-1.2) 5 (-1) +0.1
FDP 3.9 (-2.6) 4 (-2) +0.3
FW 3.8 (+1.0) 4 (+1) +0.1
Pirates 1.9 (+1.9) 2 (+2) +0.1
FAG 1.4 (-2.4) 1 (-3) +0.1
Ökolinx 1.2 (0) 1 (0) 0
NPD 1.1 (-0.1) 1 (0) -0.2
EL 1.1 (+0.1) 1 (0) +0.8 yeah, that always happens.
REP 0.8 (-0.7) 1 (0) -0.1
Grey Panthers 0.4 (+0.4) 1 (+1) 0

Really close between - in order - Grey Panthers, a 29th CDU seat, and Wolff Holtz' outfit, also at 0.4. Might be still too early to party, actually.

[minionofmidas]

Looks like the Greens are indeed largest party on my Ortsbeirat; and even more importantly the quite rightwingish, quite idiot-dominated Grand Coalition has lost its majority. (Greens now 6, CDU 5, SPD 4, Left 2, FDP and FW 1 each.)

[minionofmidas]

I'd rather trust Wormy than either of that pair.

But perhaps the more interesting - and more novel - line of thought is, when the Greens successfully take the SPD's place in Grand Coalitions, where does that leave the SPD? What are its options, besides hoping for a breakdown in CDU-Green relations? What does it stand for? How does it campaign? If the Left weren't firmly established yet, it might try to, as it were, be the Left, but now even that's not going to work - people would find the original more credible.
The Frankfurt situation leaves the SPD in a horrible trap, only partly of its own making. Its continued failures are not solely the result of the local SPD's undeniable incompetence.

Unless local politics is very different in Hesse than over here, the short-term answer is fairly obvious; shameless populist oppositionalism

I think I covered that - "if the Left weren't..."

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Oh, quite, quite. Though it's not just the cities. The problem is spreading to the suburbs by now.

[minionofmidas]

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If the Green fad doesn't pass, they'd most likely either die or become populist and anti-immigrant.

The SPD as a party is not going to become anti-immigrant. That's quite out the window, given the way that whole debate is structured here. That is the CDU's part - and in modern, major cities where the CDU can't afford to do that (and includes people disgusted by that approach among its leadership), it's the part of dissident center-right lists like the FW here in Frankfurt.
Having got that out of the way... "old, populist, anti-immigrant" is not a bad characterization of the remnant SPD voters at all - we're talking those of the traditional SPD voters to whom neither the Greens nor the Left nor the CDU appeal, after all.
I noticed the kind of places where the SPD did better in the locals than in the 2009 federals. Very much bears that out. All the places with somewhat geriatric, somewhat comfortable estates outside the center of the city.

[minionofmidas]

Gießen result now confirmed.

Offenbach.
CDU 30.9 (-4.5) 22 (-3) +0.1
SPD 26.3 (-5.9) 19 (-4) +0.6
Greens 22.1 (+11.1) 16 (+8) -0.2
Left 5.6 (+0.3) 4 (0) -0.7
FDP 5.1 (-2.4) 3 (-2) +1.0
REP 3.4 (-0.6) 2 (-1) -0.3
FW 2.5 (-0.4) 2 (0) -0.1
Pirates 2.2 (+2.2) 2 (+2) -0.3
FNO 2.0 (+2.0) 1 (+1) 0
Animal Protection Party did not run (-1.7) 0 (-1)

10 out 21 district councils in, btw. (Tend to get counted after municipalities.)

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt election site holding back 1 final precinct result in both city and Ortsbeiräte (well, one of those). And is the only thing officially still out. Ridic. I seem to recall them doing something similar last time. For several days.

Ortsbeirat seat distributions (for the three big parties, I cared who was ahead on votes. After that, I didn't.)
1 Greens 6, CDU 5, SPD 4, Left 2, FDP, FW 1 each
2 Greens 6, CDU 6, SPD 4, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
3 Greens 8, CDU 4, SPD 3, Left, FDP, FW, Ökolinx 1 each
4 Greens 7, CDU 5, SPD 4, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
5 CDU 6, Greens 5, SPD 4, Left, FDP, FW, FAG 1 each
6 CDU 7, SPD 5, Greens 3, Left, FDP, FW, REP 1 each
7 CDU 5, SPD 5, Greens 4, Left 2, FDP, FW, REP 1 each
8 CDU 6, SPD 5, Greens 5, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
9 CDU 6, Greens 6, SPD 4, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
10 CDU 6, Greens 5, SPD 5, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
11 SPD 6, CDU 6, Greens 3, Left 2, FDP, FW 1 each
12 CDU 7, Greens 5, SPD 4, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
13 CDU 4, SPD 2, Greens 2, FW 1
14 CDU 3, Greens 3, SPD 2, FW 1
15 CDU 7, Greens 4, SPD 4, FW 2, FDP, NPD 1 each (not final)
16 CDU 6, Greens 4, WBE (the local FW-type list ) 4, SPD 3, Left, FW 1 each

[minionofmidas]

Maps going quite well. I was tempted to troll and declare that no party under 5% should be included, but decided to include the two largest fringe parties as at least they were over 3%.

Probably best to include at least a "all other" map or somesuch.
Btw, the FAG vote south of the river did something funny. It's not just that Oberrad has replaced Sachsenhausen South as their strongest area. Within Sachsenhausen South - and Niederrad too - it held up well in some precincts while disappearing next door. Strength of individual activists? Brillante has his strongholds in Griesheim, of course.
But what really, really bewilders me is FW weakness in Zeilsheim and Sindlingen. That just makes no sense whatsoever.

[minionofmidas]

I thought about calculating the statewide final (districts and 5 cities) result, but it looks like work and the state will do it in a couple of days anyways.

[minionofmidas]

Oooh, the Rundschau tells me what's going on!

Doing routine random checks, they found huge amounts of valid ballots in the invalid pile in some precincts (election night count in Germany is traditionally done by the pollworkers, at the polling station - with local elections, that's only done for the unchanged ballots, though they also sort out the "clearly invalid" ballots - two straight-ticket boxes checked, additional comment by the voter, papers left blank). They've decided to do a complete recount of invalid ballots tomorrow. So, yeah.

[minionofmidas]

With one exception, the winner map is utterly predictable - and with two exceptions, it is identical to that of the last two European elections. The predictable exception is the Gallus, where the minimally better SPD result meant she at least topped the poll. The less predictable exception is the SPD win in Hausen. Which is probably explained by the FW strength biting into the CDU vote. Which in turn is, alas, explained by the ugly campaign against this pretty new structure...




They have updated those two precincts by now btw. But they're still doing that recount tomorrow.

[minionofmidas]

Here's a little list...

migrant background on the council. I'm only counting those with giveaway names. And I'm not counting non-standard stuff like English or French sounding names or whatever. Classical Gastarbeiter countries and beyond.

CDU 2/28 (Ezhar Cezairli, Turkish; Ilias Galanos, Greek)
Greens 5/24 (Hilime Arslaner, Onur Azcan, Turkish; Evanthia Triantafillidou, Greek; Nima Diallo, Guinean; Odette Barbosa de Lima, Brazilian I think - not sure if she should really be counted here.)
SPD 3/20 (Turgut Yüksel, Imren Ergindemir, Turkish; Eugenio Munoz del Rio, Spanish)
Left 1/5 (Merve Ayyildiz, Turkish)
EL 1/1 (Luigi Brillante, Italian)

Can't help but notice that two thirds of the Muslims on the city council are women (Well, if all the Turkishwomen describe themselves as Muslim. Ayyildiz is a Lesbian, after all.) as against 40% (35/87) of the remainder.

Ortsbeiräte (why not?)
CDU 3/89 (Mariano Franchi, Italian; Veljko Vuksanovic, Croatian; Zuzana Vitkova, whatever)
Greens 4/76 (Evanthia Triantafillidou*, Dimitrios Bakakis, Greek; Constantino Gianfrancesco, Mara Codona, Italian)
SPD 5/64 (Evlampios Betakis, Maria Ouzouni, Theodoros Petkos, Greek; Asim Khan, not sure what South Asian country; Rachid Rawas, Libanese)
Left 1/15 (Eyup Yilmaz, Turkish)

Much lower share. Nasty pattern in the Ortsbeiräte of putting the furrin names in the lower half of the SPD, Green, Left lists. Since Eva Triantafillidou was somewhat surprisingly elected to the city council, I don't know if she'll accept reelection to the 1st Ortsbeirat. It's legal to do and some people do it, though. Didn't include an SPD woman whose first name spelling betrays Polish birth but whose double-barreled surname isn't placeable - got to draw the line somewhere, else you might as well count the quite many Germans with Slavic or Italian-sounding or Latin or Greek surnames and German first names.