2011 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Central
SPD 46.4 (+8.0)
CDU 15.8 (-17.2)
Greens 14.7 (+3.0)
Left 10.2 (+0.9)
FDP 4.3 (+0.2)
Pirates 3.8, PARTEI 1.7, NPD 1.2
Which, hilariously, means SPD 2, CDU 1, Greens 1, Left 1 (no change).

[minionofmidas]

Barmbek - Uhlenhorst - Dulsberg
turnout 54.2
SPD 48.8 (+12.4)
CDU 17.7 (-20.0)
Greens 14.4 (+3.0)
Left 7.2 (-0.2)
FDP 5.6 (+1.2)
Pirates 2.7
Should be SPD 3 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (0)

Süderelbe
turnout 52.4
SPD 49.3 (+15.7)
CDU 26.9 (-20.0)
Greens 6.8 (0)
FDP 6.4 (+2.0)
Left 5.2 (-0.5)
Pirates 1.7, NPD 1.5
SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (-1)

Alstertal - Walddörfer
turnout 69.6
SPD 44.0 (+17.2)
CDU 29.7 (-23.4)
FDP 10.3 (+3.8)
Greens 9.5 (+0.7)
Left 3.2 (-0.2)
If the results mirror exactly, that's SPD 2 (+1), CDU 2 (-1), FDP 1 (+1), Greens 0 (-1), but it's very close between the second CDU and a first Green seat.

Altona
turnout 63.7
SPD 45.2 (+8.5)
Greens 17.5 (+0.7)
CDU 13.7 (-16.7)
Left 11.2 (+1.6)
FDP 5.6 (+1.3)
Pirates 3.1, PARTEI 1.6
SPD 2, Greens 1, CDU 1, Left 1 (no change)

Bramfeld - Farmsen-Berne
turnout 52.7
SPD 54.2 (+17.8)
CDU 21.5 (-21.5)
Greens 7.5 (+1.3)
Left 6.0 (-1.1)
FDP 5.3 (+1.1)
Pirates 1.4, NPD 1.4
SPD 2 (0), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (+1)

That means the largest borough of Wandsbek is in.
turnout 57.9, SPD 48.8, CDU 25.9, Greens 8.3, FDP 7.7, Left 4.7, Pirates 1.3

Waiting on 9 precincts in 5 constituencies in 4 boroughs...

[minionofmidas]

Billstedt - Wilhelmsburg - Finkenwerder
turnout 45.0 (it is that kind of area...)
SPD 54.2 (+14.2)
CDU 19.8 (-19.2)
Left 8.2 (-0.1)
Greens 6.7 (+1.5)
FDP 4.0 (+0.7)
Pirates 2.6, NPD 1.9
SPD 3 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Left 1 (0)

Blankenese
turnout 60.6
SPD 46.5 (+16.4)
CDU 26.4 (-23.1)
FDP 10.6 (+4.6)
Greens 7.8 (+0.6)
Left 4.3 (-0.7)
Pirates 1.3
SPD 2 (0), CDU 1 (-1), FDP 1 (+1), Greens 1 (0)

so, two new precincts completing two constituencies and two boroughs.
Central turnout 47.9, SPD 49.9, CDU 17.6, Greens 11.1, Left 9.3, FDP 4.2, Pirates 3.3, NPD 1.5, PARTEI 1.2
Altona turnout 62.3, SPD 45.8, CDU 19.3, Greens 13.3, Left 8.2, FDP 7.8, Pirates 2.3, PARTEI 1.1

[minionofmidas]

BTW, turnout is exactly the same as it was in 2008:

63.5%

http://www.hamburg.de/hamburg-wahlen/2653494/zeitplan.html

Projection fail.

Looks to have been right about 57%.

[minionofmidas]

Heh, final result
turnout 57.0
SPD 48.3 (+14.1)
CDU 21.9 (-20.7)
Greens 11.2 (+1.6)
FDP 6.6 (+1.8)
Left 6.4 (-0.1)
Pirates 2.1, NPD 0.9, PARTEI 0.7, FW 0.7 etc pp


Harburg
turnout 50.0
SPD 50.5 (+14.1)
CDU 23.0 (-18.9)
Greens 8.5 (+1.0)
Left 6.8 (-0.3)
FDP 4.5 (+0.6)
Pirates 2.4, NPD 1.7
SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (-1)

Harburg borough
turnout 51.1, SPD 49.9, CDU 24.9, Greens 7.7, Left 6.0, FDP 5.4, Pirates 2.1, NPD 1.6

Eppendorf - Winterhude
turnout 64.0
SPD 45.2 (+13.3)
CDU 21.0 (-21.8)
Greens 15.6 (+2.3)
FDP 8.6 (+2.9)
Left 5.0 (+0.2)
Pirates 1.9
SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (0)

Fuhlsbüttel - Alsterdorf - Langenhorn
turnout 60.1
SPD 51.0 (+15.5)
CDU 21.8 (-21.1)
Greens 10.3 (+1.5)
FDP 6.3 (+1.7)
Left 5.6 (-0.2)
Pirates 1.9
SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (0)

North borough
turnout 58.9, SPD 48.3, CDU 20.0, Greens 13.5, FDP 6.8, Left 6.0, Pirates 2.2

[minionofmidas]

SHilly - what did you do with the boundary changes around Bergedorf/Allermöhe? (I can see you just merged Hamm. Which was right.)

[minionofmidas]

As far as I can tell, Neuallermöhe was created from the two districts you just mentioned, but I now notice some small errors in that region. I'll fix it.

Yah, some other minor area was apparently transferred from Allermöhe to Bergedorf. I was just wondering if you had bothered to find yourself a map... because I haven't. I just read that there'd been a change a few minutes after seeing your map.

[minionofmidas]

Oh well, candidate lists for our local elections are out since two weeks ago.

The city council is contested by the eleven parties currently represented: CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, FDP, FAG (opponents of airport expansion), FW (not going by their Frankfurt-specific moniker BFF anymore, but still the same people - ie a quite rightwing sort of FW), REP, NPD, ÖkoLinx, EL, plus the Pirates, the PARTEI, the Grey Panthers, another FW-style list headed by CDU-turned-Independent councillor Wolff Holtz, and no fewer than three new migrant-oriented lists: Right to Left: Some outfit called the Muslimic Union, the Turkish-dominated (but more Kemalist, if anything...) BIG which is trying to become sort of a national party after having some successes in the NRW local elections - they also ran in Hamburg but got 0.1% of the vote - And a list called the International Migrant List headed by former Green Landtag candidate, former PDS Bockenheim borough councillor, indefatigable campaigner for a free Kurdistan, Cuma Yagmur. Who'll almost certainly have some votes headed his way from me.

Heck, I have 93 votes and will try to find 31 non-objectionable individuals since you can give no more than three votes per person. And then I'll have to try and get that in line with the total number of votes I want to give to the parties.

All 16 Borough councils are contested by CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP and FW. Left is not contesting three of the four northern councils - and, surprisingly, the one where they are running is not Nieder-Eschbach but Kalbach. Besides, in the 7th it's strictly a joint list with that local Green splinter, "die Farbechten".
EL has a surprising number of lists up: in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th.
Pirates are running in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th.
REPs are running in the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th.
NPD is running in the 5th, 10th and 15th.
Unsurprisingly Ditfurth's list is running in the North End (where it is currently represented), Yagmur's list is running in Bockenheim/Westend, and the 16th other, Bergen-Enkheim-specific FW-style list is also running again (both are currently on the council).
The guy once elected as a Left borough councillor in Nieder-Eschbach (though he was actually a member of the WASG, never the PDS/Left) and who's sat as an indy most of his term is heading a list of some fringe party with a not-too-bad sounding programme called the Democratic Party of Germany, and a formerly Green councillor, also currently sitting as an independent, is actually standing as an independent in the 7th.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not going to bother with counting my 40 votes or whatever I have. I'll just do the list...

There is no one list that I'd trust with my entire 93 vote budget.

Also forgot to mention that FAG are of course runnin in the 5th.

[minionofmidas]

Constituency count for Hamburg is completed. Citywide preferences count should be completed tomorrow.

There's a fair bit of difference between the city list and constituency results... this is constituency.

CDU   785.091   23,0 %
SPD   1.547.369   45,3 %
GRÜNE/GAL   485.743   14,2 %
DIE LINKE   238.105   7,0 %
FDP   215.037   6,3 %
PIRATEN   70.303   2,1 %

Should make a difference to Stellingen - Eimsbüttel W (SPD 1, CDU 1, Greens 1 instead of SPD 2, CDU 1), Barmbek-Uhlenhorst - Dulsberg (SPD 2, CDU 1, Greens 1, Left 1 instead of SPD 3, CDU 1, Greens 1), Alstertal - Walddörfer (SPD 2, CDU 2, Greens 1 instead of SPD 2, CDU 2, FDP 1), Rahlstedt (SPD 2, CDU 1, Greens 1 instead SPD 2, CDU 1, FDP 1). This is, if I understood election law right. (actually looks it up) Seems to be Ste Lague not Hare, actually. But got it right that I didn't have to first apply any thresholds or whatever. Not going to doublecheck if it makes any difference - will see that when they actually pronounce these people elected.

Also, the CDU's top vote getter in Bergedorf is a man by the unlikely name of Dennis Gladiator.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, orange sounds right.

[minionofmidas]

Point taken. So, greyscale for shaded maps?

[minionofmidas]

Which is why orange sounded familiar. But I think I prefer a darkish greyscale. Purely aesthetic considerations.

[minionofmidas]

Woah. What happened? People looked at Hamburg and took their cue?

[minionofmidas]

So B-W comes down to whether or not the FDP makes it into the Landstag?

And the Left, of course. And whether the polls are accurate.

[minionofmidas]

Just did the Baden-Württemberg Wahl-O-Mat test:

84/102 - Pirate Party
82/102 - Left Party
72/102 - SPD
70/102 - Greens
67/102 - Nazis
57/102 - Party of the Bible-believing Christians (just for fun)
47/102 - FDP
41/102 - CDU

Will do the Rheinland-Pfalz Wahl-O-Mat next.

83/96 Left
76/96 Greens
75/96 Pirates
64/96 SPD
59/96 BIG (why not?)
47/96 NPD
37/96 FDP
36/96 CDU

[minionofmidas]

My Rheinland-Pfalz results are slightly different:

78/100 Left Party
69/100 Greens
66/100 Pirate Party
66/100 Freie Wähler
60/100 SPD
58/100 Nazis
54/100 CDU
43/100 FDP

http://www.wahlomat.de

73/90 Left
69/90 SPD
63/90 Pirates
62/90 Greens
57/90 ddp (who?)
44/90 CDU
44/90 FDP
34/90 NPD

Hmmm...

[minionofmidas]

Never heard of the pollster, and this quality paper commissioned the poll. East Berlin's answer to the Daily Mirror, basically.

[minionofmidas]

You're not going to see CDU-Left on any level higher than a rural municipality. Though on that level, surprisingly, they're not all that rare.

Red-red coalitions have existed on the state level in Meck-Pomm, 1998 to 2006, Berlin since 2002, and Brandenburg since 2009. Saxony-Anhalt had PDS-tolerated SPD governments from 94 to 02 (until 98, a coalition with the Greens) - which is why this is called a "Magdeburg Model". And since 2010 exists in one western state (NRW).
In all of these constellations, the SPD is/was the senior partner - electing a Left state PM is apparently still a no-no to wide swathes of the SPD. It was seriously under discussion in Thuringia in 2009, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Poll of Frankfurt city council election. Swallow a saltmine, of course.

[minionofmidas]

We have too many idiots here, it seems.

Do you speak about yourself?

I'm not one of the 50,000 people protesting because of a 1 in a million chance of something similar to Japan happening here.

Which nobody did.

[minionofmidas]

Pre-Fukushima polls could be pretty useless at this point. We don't really know what the hell is going to happen.

For instance, it might have no effect at all.
So, the uninformed (on both sides of the nuclear issue - this includes all of the pro-nuclear federal policy makers) are in hard-panicky mode right now; and the anti-nuclear people (informed or uninformed) are in mild I told you so mode. Whether that affects any vote decisions or not remains to be seen. It is entirely possible.

[minionofmidas]

Probably CDU/SPD, though who knows. CDU/Green would have been likely in BaWü in such a constellation at certain points in the 2000s, but is dead there at current.

[minionofmidas]

Postfukushima BaWü poll (comparison with last infratest dimap poll, just a few days older but commissioned by somebody else)

CDU 39 (-3)
Greens 24 (+3)
SPD 22 (0)
FDP 5.5 (-0.5)
Left 4.5 (+0.5)
other 5 (0)

[minionofmidas]

Anybody know why all-party coalitions continued in BaWü until 1960? They were created all over Germany in the immediate postwar, of course, but in the other Western-occupied zones they ended at varying points between 1946 and 1950 or so.