Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[minionofmidas]

His Chinese accent is almost as faded and barely perceptible as his Irish accent. Can't they maybe get Jackie Healy-Rae to repeat the line for an audio clip?

[minionofmidas]

The worse the opposition is fractured, the lower it should go.

[minionofmidas]

Election day 2016?

[minionofmidas]

Election day 2016?

I'll awake next Friday to spend the night wandering the streets drinking rum and shouting at things.

Rum instead of Whiskey to protest against the Irish people?

[minionofmidas]

Well Bremen has been under SPD rule since 1945, Baden Württemberg under CDU rule since 1951 and Bavaria under CSU rule since 1957...

[minionofmidas]

There were really too many questions I didn't know sh!t about and had to leave at no opinion, but it says I'm sporting the right avatar.

SF +12
Labour +10
Green -1
FG -6
FF -8

And I got to echo patrick's comment at the top of the comment box "where was the question on how to achieve a United Ireland?"

[minionofmidas]

Oh, what have I done? While German states are a few dozen levels above the units now being discussed in terms of power and constitutional standing, they didn't really belong here and I knew it.

[minionofmidas]

I can only pray that we’ve seen the end of the Healy-Raes.

Say it ain't so, James.

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Traditional provincial rivalries?

[minionofmidas]

I can only pray that we’ve seen the end of the Healy-Raes.

Say it ain't so, James.

Oh. Good. God.

Not quite as cute as his dad, but endorsed!

[minionofmidas]

Possible. 2-2-1 seems more likely though.

[minionofmidas]

Ha, there's probably going to be some pretty sad people in Dublin once the Irish hero Gadaffi falls. If I lived in Massachusetts I'd love to observe the reaction in South Boston.

Has Sinn Fein issued any statements yet about how much of a glorious freedom fighter he is?

A representation of this post.

When it comes to these matters BRTD is either dumb, a troll or a dumb troll. Not sure what.

It is frightfully hard to explain to Protestants that if you give Roman Catholics a good job and a good house they will live like Protestants because they will see neighbours with cars and television sets; they will refuse to have eighteen children. But if a Roman Catholic is jobless, and lives in the most ghastly hovel he will rear eighteen children on National Assistance. If you treat Roman Catholics with due consideration and kindness they will live like Protestants in spite of the authoritative nature of their Church.

[minionofmidas]

"I'm glad to see the back of the Green Party. They have destroyed Fianna Fáil and we should never have gone into government with them." Pat Fitzgerald, FF candidate in Wicklow

You what, Pat? Greens caused the bubble to burst?

[minionofmidas]

I can only encourage all Irish posters to post their full ballot.

[minionofmidas]

67% in 2007. Whether that was high or low or whatever I cannot tell you - wikipedia is oddly silent on turnout (or no. of reg'd voters) for the two elections before that.

[minionofmidas]

rte has an article up that turnout during the day (in Ireland as in Britain, the final hours of polling are busiest) appeared to be well up on 2007, fwiw.

[minionofmidas]

Counting will begin at 9am GMT. There's an exit poll coming out at 8am.

[minionofmidas]

Probably because polls close quite late at night and counting with STV can take a couple of days anyhow.
But why they don't release the exit poll on poll closing... I haven't the slightest clue.

[minionofmidas]

Exit poll


This time, the poll predicts that Fine Gael will get 36.1% - the party's best result since November 1982, but some way short of what it would need for an overall majority.

Labour is in second place on 20.5%, which would be its best ever share of the vote. The party is ahead of Fine Gael in Dublin.

Fianna Fáil support is put at just 15.1%, by far its worst ever General Election result, and signalling an electoral wipeout.

Sinn Féin support is put at 10.1%, again a record, while the Greens are on 2.7%, which could see the party save some seats.

Independents and Others get the support of 15.5% - a very high figure, though it may be spread quite thinly given the number of candidates, and where those votes transfer could be crucial to the final outcome.

[minionofmidas]

Sinn Féin a bit higher and Fine Gael a bit lower would be nice, but given recent polling these results aren't bad.

My hope now is that Gilmore isn't stupid enough to take the Tánaiste's post. Unfortunately the results may force him to.

I'm all for an FG-FF coalition.

[minionofmidas]

from the RTE...

Breaking down the Millward Brown Lansdowne poll by region, Fine Gael polled strongest in Connacht/Ulster with 41% of first preference votes.

This was followed by Leinster (excluding Dublin) with 40%, it had 38% in Munster, and 27% in Leinster [sic, Dublin surely].

According to the exit poll, Labour received 31% of first preferences in Dublin, 20% in Munster, 19% in Leinster and 11% in Connacht/Ulster.

RTÉ's Exit Poll indicated Fianna Fáil polled as low as 8% in Dublin. They had 16% support in Munster, 17% in Leinster and 19% in Connacht/Ulster.

The poll indicated Independents and others had their strongest showing in Dublin, with 19%. In the rest of Leinster and Connacht/Ulster they were put at 12% and Munster 18%.

Sinn Féin support is put at 15% on Connacht/Ulster, 11% in Dublin, 10% in the rest of Leinster and 7% in Munster.

Finally, the Green Party is at 5% in Dublin, 3% in the rest of Leinster, 2% in Munster and only 1% in Connacht/Ulster.


Turnout may be up as much as ten points.

[minionofmidas]

RTE has lots of partial counts, early guesstimates, etc up right now. Jas may be delighted to hear they think Luke Flanagan will be the only non-FG TD from Roscommon.

[minionofmidas]

And for an analysis of Jas' predictions! I'll get to that as soon as the remaining results are in (ie sometime next year.)

[minionofmidas]

In the box to the right of the mugshots, obviously.

Apparently it was folded though, which ought to make it hell to count. And also increase the likelihood of spoiled votes.

[minionofmidas]

"Independent TD for Wexford Mick Wallace says the 'archaic' dress code in the Dáil is antiquated.

He says he does not own a suit or tie.

The Wexford Youths manager says he will make sure to shower before he enters the Dáil. "



He's right, of course, but I wonder what he meant by "making sure to shower".

[minionofmidas]

He's right, of course, but I wonder what he meant by "making sure to shower".

Yeah, surely you usually need the shower on exiting most legislative bodies.

Maybe he figures he'll be heading straight from football practice to dawl meetings?