Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[minionofmidas]

Time to try and get some election prediction in – not sure I'll have time to get through everything, but we'll see how I get on...

First up the 3 Ulster constituencies.

Cavan-Monaghan

Given that this is my native constituency, I’ll go that bit further here in my prediction than elsewhere, and make what will no doubt be a ridiculous complete first preference guestimation…

%   
21 Ó Caoláin   
15 Humphries   
13 O’Reilly      
11 Smith   
  9 Reilly   
  7 McVitty      
  7 Conlon, M   
  6 Conlon, S   
  4 McGuirk
  3 Hogan   
  2 Treanor   
  1 Lonergan
  1 Forde   
  0 Duffy   

We can go back and lol at that on Saturday.

So by this I’d say Ó Caoláin, Humphries, O’Reilly and Smith to get elected – with Reilly against McVittie for the last seat. I imagine SF will suffer much less transfer leakage than FG, so I’ll plump for Reilly.

Prediction: 2 FG, 2 SF, 1 FF (FG and SF GAINS from FF)

Let's have a look...

%   
17 Ó Caoláin   
11 Humphries   
12 O’Reilly      
14 Smith   
  9 Reilly   
  5 McVitty      
  7 Conlon, M   
  11 Conlan, S   
  2 McGuirk
  6 Hogan   
  3 Treanor   
  1 Lonergan
  3 Forde   
  0 Duffy   

You completely missed Sean Conlan, as well as misspelled him. Even though he's from slap bang in the middle of Monaghan. Or maybe you overestimated Irish willingness to put the old nepotist days behind you?

Still, the overall prediction can hardly be termed "ridiculous".

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, that government would start off as weak as the last one was during its final year. There's no real alternative to this coalition. Nor is it automatically a bad thing - depends what kind of deal Labour strike now.

[minionofmidas]

The GOP never dropped to anywhere near 17% of the vote. Never say never I suppose, but it looks to me like the party's over. FF's chances of returning to major party status are probably a  worse than SF's chances of taking their place.

[minionofmidas]

Donegal North-East

Pádraig MacLochlainn of SF to top the poll and secure SF’s first seat in DSE since the early years of the state. Joe McHugh of FG should retain his seat easily enough – but I can’t see there being much chance of him dragging his running-mate terribly close to the line.

Final seat should be FF’s – they’re just running local Cllr, Charlie McConalogue.
I’d expect reasonable numbers for Labour Cllr Jimmy Harte,

Check.

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Yeah, no. Maybe something just didn't gel about a "New Vision" and an "end to civil war politics" and being a Blaney?
The best-polling Indy was one Dessie Shiels.

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In the end, Pringle was closer to second place than to fourth... and Coughlan came fifth, being edged also by her running mate.

[minionofmidas]

Galway E

FG pitching for 3 out of 4 here and should get them in what is one of their strongest constituencies. They’re probably looking at drawing in around half the total first preference votes here.

43%, which was not enough for three seats.

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Connaughton and Cannon, actually, with McHugh for a somewhat distant 3rd.

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Check.

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Keaveney won one, of course. You also missed Tim Broderick.

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A very good prediction, actually - though Nolan had no trouble defending the Labour seat, and Sean Kyne pipped running mate Healy-Eames, and then Connolly.

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Yeah, Kilcoyne did come closest. But the 4-1 result never seemed in doubt here. Correct prediction.

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Hah.

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The votes for a Labour - or a SF - gain might well have been there, actually. We'll never know. As it was, FF came closest... but not close. Flanagan was the first elected, even though he did not top the poll.

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Correct prediction. Thanks largely to dreadful intra-FF transfering.

So far
1 SF to FG
1 FF to i
1 FG to Labour
1 intra-FG
1 Labour to i

[minionofmidas]

My gut prediction for my own constituency, Dublin Central, before Jas gets to it -

2 Labour

Joe Costello will probably top the poll, and my instinct is that Aine Clancy will get in, too, just about.

1 Fine Gael

Paschal Donohoe will almost certainly win - he's ran a couple of times now, and did reasonably well in the by-election to replace Tony Gregory.

1 Independent *

It's hard to predict the final seat - there's no way of telling if Gregory's vote will hold up to re-elect O' Sullivan, for example. Normally you'd expect Sinn Féin to win this one, but Mary Lou McDonald isn't exactly a stellar candidate. If I had to pick I'd gamble on O' Sullivan keeping her seat and McDonald, rather than Clancy, losing out accordingly. You should probably bear in mind that I'm biased since I really, really can't stand Mary Lou McDonald.

Bertie's human surplus, Cyprian Brady (Fianna Fáil) is one of the deadest incumbents imaginable. His inter-party rival, Mary Fitzpatrick, hasn't got a chance either, although her prospects are better than Brady's.

The usual gaggle of independents are also running. Christy Burke, recently of Sinn Féin, will probably do respectably well.

* Orange is apparently the colour of independent candidates.

Yeah well, Labour hack overestimates secondary Labour candidate, sun rises in east, sky blue except for the fluffy white bits.

Fitzpatrick didn't do so badly; though she didn't win. O'Sullivan ended up the only candidate with a redistributed surplus, but that's on Clancy's transfers. Another independent who did well was the mafiose-looking Ciaran Perry.

[minionofmidas]

Moving on to Munster…

Clare

One of the biggest shocks of the 1992 election (the historical high point for Labour in a parliamentary election – 19.5%, 33 seats) was the election of Dr Moosajee Bhamjee – Ireland’s first Muslim TD – in Clare. Three years earlier Labour didn’t even have a candidate in the previous General Election. Given the way the electoral math will turn out, it’s likely that similarly outrageous results will crop up this time across the country.

Anyway… as to Clare in 2011: FG’s 2 incumbents should be fine. Their third candidate, Tony Mulcahy, is a local councillor with a solid electoral record and has a chance.

FF are running 2 in their defence of 2. Realistically even on a really bad day, they should hold 1 in Clare. Timmy Dooley can probably be expected to hold his seat. Unfortunately.

James Breen was an independent TD here from 2002-07, and seems again the strongest other contender. It should be him v FG for the last seat.

I can’t imagine that Michael McNamara of Labour will be the next Dr Bhamjee – but then that's the point I suppose.

Oh, but he was, he was. Which made it Dooley vs Breen for the last seat, with Mulcahy losing out. And Dooley held his seat. Unfortunately.

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Well, they did have some worse results than that one...

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One of them outpolled Meaney, but that's about it.

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Very good prediction. Sheahan did actually edge McEllistrim, but was still a far cry from endangering Ferris or Spring.

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Fáil, Jas. Epic Fáil.

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The one thing clear after count 1 - the one candidate to break out - was Sheahan's running mate.

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Moloney proved too weakfish. And of course we have not seen the end of the Healy-Raes - no one, no one, no one can ever beat them! A double error, Jas. In a three seater. I am severely disappointed.

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Perfect (other than overstating Kiely and missing the respectable tally of Labour's second candidate, but these are very minor points.)

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Dillon got ten percent of the vote. Heffernan ended up getting damn close, but not close enough. Prediction's perfect.

More tomorrow.

[minionofmidas]

The GOP never dropped to anywhere near 17% of the vote. Never say never I suppose, but it looks to me like the party's over. FF's chances of returning to major party status are probably a  worse than SF's chances of taking their place.

They did drop to 23.17% of the vote...

(Worst result for the GOP in a two-candidate election was 36.54% in 1936, worst result for the Dems was 28.82% in 1924, worst result for the Dems in a two-candidate election was 34.15% in 1920).

Meh, "never" was not meant literally.

Besides the obvious issues, of course - a presidential election result is much more elastic, a rout much less meaningful, than a parliamentary result. The Republicans were still one of only two major parties in Congress, state legislatures, etc in 1912.

[minionofmidas]

Cork E

2 FG, 1 Lab can, I should think, be taken as given. Sherlock (Lab) to probably top the poll, followed by Stanton (FG).

Yes

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No

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Yes it was, yes Labour came close, yes anti-FF transfering was fundamental to SF's gain.

Shame about getting the order of FG wrong. Otherwise this was as perfect as could possibly be.

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The other was never eliminated... they battled it out until the last count. I notice you chickened out of picking one of them to win.

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Yes and yes.

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And so he did.

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Absolutely preposterous. Barry polled 9% but never looked close to a seat. If his voters had liked the second Labour candidate better, we might still have seen a second left gain, but as it stood the battle was between Kelleher and the two FG candidates for two seats, and Kelleher stayed on top of that.
WP polled 1.3%.

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Yes, and yes they could chase - FG as well as FF. Very good.

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Wrong FG loser, otherwise perfect. And you did mention he was in with a chance.

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Yeah, another one with one safe FG seat and the other two seats between FG, FF, and Labour. But Labour won it, FF lost out.

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29.1% 2007, 29.2% 2011. And since you actually said "vote" and turnout was also higher... up by 1200.

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The rest of this is of course entirely correct.

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43% Mattie, 22% FG, 35% exhausted, so yeah, not that freely but it was enough.

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Prendergast turned out a very weak candidate, which means she gets a reward in the form of an European Parliament seat. FG were much closer to a second than Labour were to a first, but of course McGrath held on. I could have told you that.

[minionofmidas]

Final Munster constituency...

Waterford

FG should take 2 and Labour 1 with relative ease.

Right.

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Not enough of their transfers made it to SF to overtake the strongest of the small leftist candidates. And enough SF transfers made it to Halligan to overtake Kenneally.

[minionofmidas]

Carlow-Kilkenny
Terrible vote management cost FG a second seat last time – it should be an easy pick-up now.
FF had 3, but will likely come out with just 1 – McGuinness probably.

Labour should easily take 1 (probably Phelan)

Yes!

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Yeah, no. Deering was the 3rd placed FG candidate, but Labour were not his competitors. That was FF.

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All very accurate.

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Yes.

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No.
Who is Áine Kerr? You mean Áine Brady? FG took it. (Labour's second candidate was reasonably strong too, so that was quite right.)

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Martin Heydon crushed the field and raises questions why a second FG candidate wasn't on the ticket. Wall too was elected on the first count.

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Independent Paddy Kennedy was in with a chance as well, thanks to excellent transfers, but O'Fergal overtook him again after Power was eliminated, and then compared himself to "the last of the Mohicans". Memorable quote, that.

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Unfortunately.

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Yes and yes.

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Perfect! Labour were in there with a shot.

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Sexton failed hard. Transfers proved decisive, both in putting McFadden well ahead of running mate Peter Burke who did better on first pref.s, and in randomly allocating the fourth seat... to FF's "off the wall" third candidate.
Which means the prediction is actually correct except for the identity of the FF winner. O'Rourke was eliminated on the second count.

[minionofmidas]

Louth

Ceann Comhairle (Speaker) Seamus Kirk (FF) is deemed automatically re-elected, so this is effectively a 4-seater (even though the recent constituency review bumped it up to 5 seats).

FG’s O’Dowd and SF leader Gerry Adams should both get in without too much trouble.

Understatement much?

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Labour had a fair few votes to spare (more than Fitzpatrick), but otherwise perfect.

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SF were far too far behind. FG though took it with no trouble - thanks in part to really, really excellent vote management. Their two candidates were basically tied and both ahead of FF (even combined) throughout the count.

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You guessed right. Labour edged FF for fourth place.

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Yes!
FG’s 2 are secure – they’ll be trying to bring in Senator Liam Twomey as their third.[/quote]Twomey ended up their top vote getter. FG votes ended up too well managed here as their three candidates were very close together... and competing for the last two seats. Which means D'Arcy is one of three FG TDs to be defeated for reelection.

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Yes.

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SF didn't get too far.
Of course, so far I've been ignoring the longhaired elephant without a tie in the room. Independent Mick Wallace comfortably topped the poll, was elected on the first count, and is not mentioned here anywhere. To quote RTÉ, "FG here can't believe Wallace got such a high vote and stopped them getting 3 seats".

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Yes. Labour's vote was barely up on 2007, and their transfers weren't great, so definitely a McManus effect there. FG got three, with very little trouble. Good vote management again.

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Donnelly won a seat, of course. SF did well but lost. Behan did okay, Kelly was a nonshow (0.7%).

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It might have been, if FF had had better candidates. Double error, though in a five-seater this time.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I guess I'd support it too. BTW, how is the upper house elected in Ireland ?

Some members are elected by university graduates, others appointed by the Taoiseach, and the rest are elected through a ridiculous corporatist system.

You make it sound as if university seats are not a ridiculous example of corporatism.

[minionofmidas]

Very busy with work and stuff for the next few days, so putting up this holding prediction for the remaining constituencies, in case I don't get time to flesh things out before 'tis too late:
Dublin C
Prediction: 1 Lab, 1 i [O’Sullivan], 1 FG, 1 SF
(FG and SF GAINS from FF)

Dublin MW
Prediction: 2 FG, 2 Lab
(FG, FG and Lab GAINS from FF, PD and Green)

Dublin N
Prediction: 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Soc, 1 FF
(Lab and Soc GAINS from FF and Green)

Dublin NC
Prediction:  1 FG,1 i (McGrath), 1 Lab
(Lab GAIN from FF)

Dublin NE
Prediction: 2 Lab, 1 FG
(Lab GAIN from  FF)

Dublin NW
Prediction: 2 Lab, 1 SF
 (Lab and SF GAINS from FF)

Dublin S
Prediction: 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab
(FG and Lab GAINS from FF and Green)

Dublin SC
Prediction:  2 Lab, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 PBP
(Lab and PBP GAINS from FF)

Dublin SE
Prediction: 2 Lab, 2 FG
(Lab and FG GAINS from FF and Green)

Dublin SW
Prediction:  2 Lab, 1 FG, 1 SF
(Lab and SF GAINS from FF)

Dublin W
Predition: 2 Lab, 1 FG, 1 Soc
(LAB and Soc GAINS from FF and new seat created)

Dún Laoighaire
Prediction:  2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 PBP
(FG and PBP GAINS from FF and Green)

Got around to my slightly more detailed Dublin predictions (which include some changes on the quick list I threw up the other morning)...

Dublin C

Where will Bertie Ahern’s vote go?  Not sure myself.
The only safe seat here is Labour’s Joe Costello. The other 3 are very much up for grabs.

FG’s worst constituency last time out, the FG polling increase we’re seeing nationally should at least put Paschal Donohoe close enough to election to make it more than likely. Incumbent independent Maureen O’Sullivan has a strong team and should be in a reasonable position to retain that seat.

A simple look at the national polls and their local election performance would indicate that SF’s Mary Lou McDonald has to be at least competitive.

Quite right.

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His vote wasn't that high in the first place and got scattered totally. McDonald got the biggest bundle (by a small amount), but that's not saying much.

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Underestimating continued FF support. Spot on for the result, though.

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Perfect on the dynamics and the identity of the contenders, but Labour's  (and FG's!) second snuck ahead of SF on the FF transfers. You called it right in the holding prediction.

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Nowhere near.

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Spot on on Sargent and FF being competitive. Daly's stronger-than-expected vote came out of Labour's pocket, I suppose. The notion of a second FG seat here seems to have never entered your mind, though.

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Perfection.

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More perfection.

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Excellency in Perfection. Though it wasn't particularly close for that last seat.

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Jas' habit of underestimating independents in this election strikes again. At least you revised it to include the easy polltopper among the winners. At the expense of FG instead of of FF, alas - though Corrigan was indeed in with a fighting chance.

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Not quite. Though she was easily elected.

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More perfection. You're doing really well in Dublin.

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You missed the most successful of the independents, one Paul Sommerville, but perfect on the call. Labour's second struggled a bit, but took it.

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Maloney with ease, so correct as usual. O'Connor got beaten for fifth by FG's second candidate.

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This was a simple one: same as last time, except Joe Higgins regains his seat.
Nulty did attract a fair few transfers more than Lenihan, but the gap was far too wide to even think of bridging.

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Perfect. Hanafin was in with a shot against Boyd Barrett, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, forgot about your revisions.

And just want to make a handful of revisions to the earlier predictions:

Sligo-Leitrim N

FG should definitely be looking at two here and indeed I’d expect them to both top and come second in the poll.

FF defending 2, will be desperately seeking to hold 1 – but I imagine the wind’s against them. SF seem best placed to pick up here. Labour might have been, but the inclusion of former Labour member Declan Bree, should split that vote and give SF’s Colreavy a cushion.

Prediction: 2 FG, 1 SF (FG and SF GAINS from FF)

Sligo-Leitrim N
Analysis unchanged, but looking at things again, I think the ground is just that bit too much for SF to make up.

Revised prediction: 2 FG, 1 FF
(FG GAIN from FF)

Tinkering was a mistake.

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Cork E

Taking another off SF. Very difficult – the last seat could go any which way between FG, Labour and FF. Can think of reasons against all. Anyway, my inclination is to think Michael Ahern (FF) might hold out.

Revised prediction: 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF
(FG GAIN from FF)

[/quote]As stated before, tinkering was a mistake.

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Cork SC

Taking a fresh view of it, I suspect holding the second FF seat would be a tall order. Putting it down as a FG gain now.

Revised prediction: 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab
(FG GAIN from FF)

[/quote]What did I just tell you!? TINKERING WAS A MISTAKE.

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Attaboy.

[minionofmidas]

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"Revolutions" are not made in a day.

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What barbarous rhetoric.

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Was this a campaign issue? What is being proposed?

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I suggest using the gentleman with the cap as much as possible. He is exactly like your annoying tourism ads, except that he doesn't have red hair and speaks English with a Sootkirry accent instead of German with an English one.

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It seems to me that Ireland was increasingly united rather than divided. Granted, it was united in opposition to the Fianna Fáil government, but...

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"Will be recognized as a"? Not "will be a"? Either the chip on your shoulder is even more massive than I thought, or this is a blatantly honest example of


 

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Is this a sly dig at the parting Tanaiste or what?

[minionofmidas]

Ah, here is the section on constitutional reform...

"Constitutional Reform
The context for reform
Building on the well-established and tested Constitution of Ireland, and decades of judicial
determination of rights under that Constitution, we will establish a process to ensure that our
Constitution meets the challenges of the 21st century, by addressing a number of specific
urgent issues as well as establishing a Constitutional Convention to undertake a wider review.
Parliamentary reform issues
We will prioritise putting to the people by referendum a number of urgent parliamentary
reform issues:
• Abolition of the Seanad
• A referendum to amend the Constitution to reverse the effects of the Abbeylara
judgment to enable Oireachtas committees to carry out full investigations.
• A referendum to protect the right of citizens to communicate in confidence with
public representatives.
Other specific priority amendments
We will also give priority to the following specific constitutional amendments:
• A referendum to amend the Constitution to allow the State to cut the salaries of judges
in restricted circumstances as part of a general cut across the public sector.
• A referendum to amend the Constitution to ensure that children’s rights are
strengthened, along the lines recommended by the All-Party Oireachtas committee.
Broader constitutional review
We will establish a Constitutional Convention to consider comprehensive constitutional
reform, with a brief to consider, as a whole or in sub-groups, and report within 12 months on
the following:
• Review of our Dáil electoral system.
• Reducing the presidential term to 5 years and aligning it with the local and European
elections
• Provision for same-sex marriage.
• Amending the clause on women in the home and encourage greater participation of
women in public life.
• Removing blasphemy from the Constitution
• Possible reduction of the voting age.
• Other relevant constitutional amendments that may be recommended by the
Convention."

I like the last bullet point! (Also, there is blasphemy in the Constitution?)

[minionofmidas]

Also, there is blasphemy in the Constitution?

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I fail to see anything blasphemous in that provision. Evil, yes. Blasphemous, no.

[minionofmidas]

They might offer the ULA to nominate a ULA Presidential candidate.

[minionofmidas]

As I have just found out while wikiwalking, Ireland has a collective vice presidency, consisting of the Chief Justice, the CC, and the CC's Seanad counterpart. So... would that third co-vp be replaced, and by whom?