Texas, it's bigger than France

[minionofmidas]

Looks nice.
I haven't checked, but from memory, many of the rural districts (outside the Southern bacon strips of course) look a lot like what existed pre-regerrymander.

[minionofmidas]

Looks nice.
I haven't checked, but from memory, many of the rural districts (outside the Southern bacon strips of course) look a lot like what existed pre-regerrymander.

I assume you mean the map used for the 2002 election (descendant of the
1990s Frostrocity).  Not really.

The 2002 had a lot of quirky little boundaries (see 4, 5, 8, and 23).  It was also
intent on preserving incumbents, and had many districts running from rural areas
into the major metropolitan cities.

Although not as many as the current one...

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Yeah, it was just a cursory glance at East and NW Texas really, probably spiked with a good bit of wishful thinking.

[minionofmidas]

Nice.

[minionofmidas]

Nice work
Most of the Albuquerque inner-metro is in one district and Little Texas isn't split anymore.

Thanks. I stuffed as much of the Albuquerque inner-metro as I could into District 1, but I hit the population limit before I could swoop south into Valencia to pick up the other quasi-suburbs. And I was deliberately trying to keep Little Texas together. I was also trying to put a lot of the Native American Reservations together, and got all but 2 of them in District 3 (D1 and D2 have one each). The Democratic primary fights in D3 would be ferocious.

At least the district would be utterly safe for them. Oh, it already is.
D2 would be ultra-safe Rep I reckon. Would D1 be more or less Dem than it is now?

[minionofmidas]

Sorry, for my ignorance, but is that more Republican seats than now, or less?

Same basically, but Jim is being very optimistic for his party in East Texas, possibly elsewhere.

[minionofmidas]

1 (Northeast) Sandlin might have held on here, but he had been challenged even under the 90 Democrat gerrymander.
2 (East Texas).  No chance for Democrat in district that includes Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, and Nacogdoches.  Turner represented a district that carefully avoided more populated areas.

Basically, if D2 can't elect a Democrat, D1 is highly competitive. If D1 is safe-ish for Reps, then D2 is only safe-ish either. I'd have to have a closer look at population distribution, but looks like the first of these is correct. Of course it would have to be the right type of Democrat.

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The areas to the North are not more Republican than the areas to the East of Jefferson County. Probably less so. (Not thinking of presidential elections here.) This isn't safe, but it sure favors Dems.

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No contest.

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No contest (although Charlie Stenholm did carry quite a few counties last time around.)

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When it was cut more explicitly with the purpose of getting him out.

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No contest.

[minionofmidas]

11. (Galveston Bay).  Houston suburbs balance Galveston and southern mainland of Galveston County, but Brazoria is very Republican, and will outvote Baytown.  SE Harris suburbs will vote GOP.

Should normally be safe GOP thanks to Brazoria, true.

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Yeah, all rocksolid Dem really.

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Oh yes there is. Dems actually topped the congressional poll across Dallas County (and Harris County too) in 2004. Obviously the 3 outer districts are utterly safe Rep, I'd have to find me some more details before making predictions on the other three, but there is certainly not material for two safe Rep districts in them. At best (for you), one almost-as-safe-as-now (where all Republicans have been surgically removed) Dem seats and two lean Rep ones, but I need convincing.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, Austin can complain about this map too, that's true. Both very interesting seats that might go either way, quite possibly both Rep leaners.
Bexar might prove interesting, leaning to a split, yes, both potentially winnable for either party yes, but the chance of both going Dem, while not all that high, is a hell of a lot higher than the chance of both going Rep. (Another county that voted Dem in 2004 Congressionals, despite the more Hispanic area obviously having lower turnout, and I very much doubt removing that northern portion makes the county more Republican.)

[minionofmidas]

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27 is Republicanism Concentrate, 29 is also rock solid. 30 is solid Rep for now I suppose (how close is it to Culberson's current district?), not sure for how long. 28 is interesting - DeLay would have lost in 2004 if all votes from Brazoria County would have magically disappeared, by the way. But yeah, it obviously does lean Rep.


So, 17 Rep including some not so safe ones, 10 Dem including some not so safe ones, 5 I can't predict due to limited knowledge.

[minionofmidas]

16-22 (DFW).  There is currently one Democrat from the area, and there is no reason that the districts that I have drawn will perform differently.

Oh yes there is. Dems actually topped the congressional poll across Dallas County (and Harris County too) in 2004. Obviously the 3 outer districts are utterly safe Rep, I'd have to find me some more details before making predictions on the other three, but there is certainly not material for two safe Rep districts in them. At best (for you), one almost-as-safe-as-now (where all Republicans have been surgically removed) Dem seats and two lean Rep ones, but I need convincing.

In Harris County, this was because 2 candidates did not have GOP opponents, while one GOP candidate did not have a Democrat opponent.  If you look at the RRC race, the GOP had a +86K plurality in Harris County; along with +65K in Montgomery, +18K in Fort Bend, +23K in Brazoria, and +6K in Galveston.

The 4 seats in Harris County will split 2:2, all with at least a 60% majority.  The suburban counties will ensure the other 3 districts are GOP held.

Yes, I counted them as such.

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That's ... like ... nothing.[/quote] My districts for Dallas County are remarkably similar to the districts created by the Texas Legislature in 2003. [/quote]Oh, OK then. Take two from "not determined" and add them to "lean to secure-if-not-rocksolid Rep". (The other seat I'd been wondering about was the between-Dallas-and-Fort Worth one, o/c)

[minionofmidas]

1 (Northeast) Sandlin might have held on here, but he had been challenged even under the 90 Democrat gerrymander.
2 (East Texas).  No chance for Democrat in district that includes Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, and Nacogdoches.  Turner represented a district that carefully avoided more populated areas.

Basically, if D2 can't elect a Democrat, D1 is highly competitive. If D1 is safe-ish for Reps, then D2 is only safe-ish either. I'd have to have a closer look at population distribution, but looks like the first of these is correct. Of course it would have to be the right type of Democrat.

57.7% in RRC race, with big margins in the more western counties especially Grayson (Sherman-Dennison) and Hunt (Greenville) which are the 1st and 3rd largest counties.  The GOP also carried Bowie (Texarkana), Lamar (Paris), and Harrison (Marshall).  The Democrat candidate carried 4 counties, mostly very small.

Yes...I doubt it means all that much though.

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The areas to the North are not more Republican than the areas to the East of Jefferson County. Probably less so. (Not thinking of presidential elections here.) This isn't safe, but it sure favors Dems.[/quote]
The areas to the east of Jefferson County don't vote in Texas elections.   The RRC race was 48.2% GOP to 51.8% Dem.   The rest of the district nibbled a 17.4K margin from Jefferson County down to 7.6K[/quote]Eh, East is West.

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No contest (although Charlie Stenholm did carry quite a few counties last time around.)[/quote]
In 2002, he almost lost.  He failed to carry his home county (Taylor) as well as large counties of Erath, Brown, Tom Green.  The largest county that he carried was Wise.   Wise is not in my district, but Lubbock is.[/quote]He did carry Taylor in 2004., when Wise was not in his district, but Lubbock was. (He carried 5 counties - Castro, Fisher, Kent, Taylor, and the portion of Nolan to be included in his district. Most of these are tiny.) Mind you, that train's departed, this is a safe Rep district now.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, Austin can complain about this map too, that's true.

Travis County is entitled to about 1.25 representatives.  It makes more sense to split the county than to create one whole district, and having another district that includes areas to the north and south that are not linked by any highways.

I know it does. Given your initial outline it was unavoidable. If I were from Austin, though, I probably wouldn't be seeing it that way.

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GOP representatives had a +10K majority (all 4 races were contested by both parties).  The areas in Bonilla's seat (+45K), and Smith's seat (+49K) would be in the northern district.  The areas in Gonzalez's district (-58k) and Cuellar's district (-26K) form the southern district.[/quote]You're right, I can't add. I had the Rep vote 20K too small.

[minionofmidas]

Sam, you either have a radically different concept of a 75% probability, or a radically different concept of the meaning of the term "safe" than me.
(And of course, unless a place is really really weird, a non-gerrymandered, or even an unsophistically gerrymandered, map is bound to produce fewer safe seats...)