The Perfect Bellwether County

[minionofmidas]

Just found this...
In 1996, Winnebago County, Iowa, voted for Bill Clinton by a margin of 8.5 percentage points, same as the country.
In 2000, it voted for Al Gore by a margin of 0.5 percentage points, same as the country.
1996 result
Clinton 48,5
Dole 40,0
Perot 10,7 (yes, I know - over average)
other 0,7

2000 result
Gore 48,7
Bush 48,2
Nader 2,1
other 1,1

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, it's the perfect bellwether for the 90's, but that doesn't mean it'll stay that way.
It's not as if social indicators would make it look like average America.
-way too few minorities
-way too rural (though quite densely populated for rural America)
-no really big cities (but quite a few mid-sized ones)
-I'm not sure average income, but if I remember correctly income variation is much smaller in Iowa than in the nation as a whole.
For now, these factors seem to be cancelling each other out like nowhere else, but there's no reason to believe it'll stay that way forever.
Perfect bellwethers are really chance events...Winnebago county is tiny and rural. It's right on the Minnesota line btw, not at all far away from where Better Red lives.

[minionofmidas]

Ah yes, let's import those Democrat Mexicans as fast as possible.

#86 would not be too good; Virginia Beach (where I live) is like #30 or so. And we're half the size (pop.) of Fairfax county.

I don't think it makes too much sense to look at the actual city limits. Better look for the agglomeration. In the case of VB, that's the entire Hampton Roads, Tidewater, whatever you call it, area. Which would definitely qualify as "very large". I think Des Moines would probably move a few spots down i that comparison, not sure though. Anyways, it's not one of the 50,60 largest urban areas in America, so not very large.