2012 a bloodbath for Democrats in the senate?

[Mr.Phips]

No.  Obama will be running for reelection, bringing out millions of new young and minority voters.  That will save pretty much everyone but Ben Nelson in Nebraska and a possible open seat in North Dakota. 

[Mr.Phips]

As for the House, you have to remember that there are a good 10-15 seats that would be flipped back just by having a 2008 level minority turnout, and the 2012 electorate is likely to be even less white than 2008.

Republicans will control redistricting, and thus Democrats will have to do better than one would think.

There is not much Republicans are going to be able to do redistrictingwise to hurt Democrats with the exception of North Carolina.  Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio are losing seats and Republicans are already overextended in those states and will have to cut some of their own members unless they want several districts to go back to Democrats in 2012.

[Mr.Phips]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts. 

[Mr.Phips]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts. 

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

There was far more ticket splitting in 1984 and even then, Republicans only lost two seats when they had far more up then Democrats.  Voters have not split their tickets to vote against an incumbent Senator who wasnt involved in a scandal since 1988. 

[Mr.Phips]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts. 

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

There was far more ticket splitting in 1984 and even then, Republicans only lost two seats when they had far more up then Democrats.  Voters have not split their tickets to vote against an incumbent Senator who wasnt involved in a scandal since 1988. 

Was Ashcroft in a scandal? He was unpopular but I don't remember a scandal?

Forgot about that one.  I dont count that one because of the whole deal with his opponent dying and then being replaced with his wife. 

[Mr.Phips]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts.  

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

There was far more ticket splitting in 1984 and even then, Republicans only lost two seats when they had far more up then Democrats.  Voters have not split their tickets to vote against an incumbent Senator who wasnt involved in a scandal since 1988.  

Was Ashcroft in a scandal? He was unpopular but I don't remember a scandal?

Forgot about that one.  I dont count that one because of the whole deal with his opponent dying and then being replaced with his wife.  

He wasn't replaced with his wife till after the election, but yeah it definately is a special case

There is also SD 1996, Larry Pressler gets defeated by Tim Johnson despite Dole carrying the state. Again, no scandal that I can remember. Pressler just suffered from general voter fatigue I believe.

Pressler actually ran ahead of Dole.  Dole got 46%, while Pressler got 49%.