States where the parties' strongest regions have flipped in the last 50 years

[Mr.Phips]

The first one that comes to mind is Kentucky.  In the 1976 Presidential election, where Carter won the state 53%-46%, Carter won by dominating the rural 1st and 2nd districts in the Western half of the state, while running behind in the Louisville and Jefferson county based third district.  Now, Democrats usually get killed in the 1st and 2nd districts, while they have to get 60% plus in the-third district to have a chance statewide. 

Another is Virginia.  Ford eked out a win in the state in 1976 due to his margins in Northern Virginia, which were just enough to offset Carter's margin in the rest of the state, which is more "southern".  Now, any Democrats who hopes to win statewide needs to win Northern Virginia by double digits to offset Republican strength in the rest of the state.

Can anyone else think of any states like this?

[Mr.Phips]

the best example is Texas. In 1960 1968 and 1976 democrats won Texas while losing Dallas and Harris counties. Now, democrats probably have to get 60% in Harris and 65% in Dallas to win the state. Meanwhile much of rural eastern and central Texas which democrats would win by decent margins have gone off the deep end.

Just look at the old 1st and 2nd districts.  In 1988, Dukakis did about as well as he did nationally in the 1st, while Obama likely got about 33% there.  Same in the old 2nd where Dukakis actually won by four points, but Obama probably got around 33% there.