NY-20 Special Election

[Mr.Phips]

For now I'm willing to bet that Democrats keep this seat. Anyone wanna bet against me?

Yes, I will bet you $1000. 

[Mr.Phips]

I think the only chance Democrats would have here is if they can convince hugely popular WNYT anchorwoman Benita Zahn to run. 

[Mr.Phips]

This is my district, I'm simply hoping a Republican doesn't win. Please god no!

This should be the Dem slogan: Remember Sweeney!

Then you better vote in the special. 

[Mr.Phips]

State Senator versus dude with money.  Something tells me this is going Republican.

He's actually an Assemblymen.  There is a significant difference. 

[Mr.Phips]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400.  I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

[Mr.Phips]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400.  I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Only political hacks follow things like congressional special elections. Brian Bilbray winning in 2006 didn't foretell anything about what was to happen in the fall.

But Bilbray barely won. 

[Mr.Phips]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400. I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Was that meant to be serious?

Yes it was.  I think Tedisco will probably win this race with around 67% of the vote. 

[Mr.Phips]

The DCCC put out some oppo research, but other than that, they have been largely absent:
http://www.politickerny.com/1813/why-dccc-fighting-gillibrand-seat

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What's he doing, driving an RV to work or filling up his friends cars?

Maybe he drove to Buffalo and back for a hearing, or Montauk and back for a meeting, or Buffalo to Montauk, or to a conference somewhere far away. 

Two days out of eight years?  And an average of $2600 per year for gas?  Big deal.   If the car got 15MPG, that would be 20,000 miles per year at $2 a gallon - not out of the ordinary.   They're making a mountain out of a molehill.

Kinda like Republicans making an issue out of one of Obama's nominee's having a $900 tax lien. 

[Mr.Phips]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0309/Turnout_high_in_Saratoga.html

Just finished visiting three precincts in Saratoga County, where turnout is well above expectations.

Election officials at the three Saratoga Springs precincts said they expected about 35 percent of registered voters to cast ballots by the time polls close at 9:00 EST.

One election official noted that many voters commented about their disgust with the negative tone of the campaign -- though that didn’t stop them from coming out to the polls.

On paper, that’s encouraging news for Republican Jim Tedisco because Saratoga County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold.  Tedisco also represents parts of the county in his statewide Assembly seat.

But the voting patterns of the county have changed dramatically in recent years – Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand won 59 percent of the county vote last year, and President Obama carried the county with 51 percent of the vote.

The city of Saratoga Springs or the county of Saratoga?  Because the city is a Democratic stronghold. 

[Mr.Phips]

So, how do absentees usually vote around these parts?

Im from this area and have had to deal with many close local elections here.  In Saratoga county at least, absentees seem to closely mirror the actual vote.  

[Mr.Phips]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

And now from 25 to 13. I think it'll end up going to Tedisco

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There is a good chance the Democratic House wont seat Tedisco if it appears to be this close.  The Republicans control the machinery here and this is not an election that Democrats are just going to let go of. 

[Mr.Phips]

Nonsense.  No one party controls the "machinery" (i.e. the county and state boards of election) in New York.

Then how do you explain what happened in '94?

A lot of the races in 1994 were not that close and the ones that were, Democrats generally won. 

[Mr.Phips]

Nonsense.  No one party controls the "machinery" (i.e. the county and state boards of election) in New York.

Then how do you explain what happened in '94?

A lot of the races in 1994 were not that close and the ones that were, Democrats generally won. 

Um??? In 1994???

Almost every race that was decided by less than 1000 votes went to the Democrat in 1994.

[Mr.Phips]

Um, how is Tedisco now suddenly up 97 votes?