Anyone else watching Survivor?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Will John Rocker be able to redeem himself for his shameful MLB career? Will Val find the immunity idol before her ass gets bounced for being on the wrong side of the numbers? Why the hell did that gay guy vote for Baylor? How did OH MY GOD THERE IS SAP IN MY EYES YOU GUYS

Anyone else watching this season?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

ORANGE TRIBE

Well, after last night, it appears that ol' Josh is in the drivers seat. He saw a shot and he took it. I think it was a smart move -- Rocker had the idol, and he proved a couple times that he didn't have the best interests of his tribe in mind. Plus he was a really bad sport, and that's a huge negative in a Blood vs. Water season.

Wes did pretty well for himself too. He won the reward challenge, which was huge. And he seems to be really well bonded with Josh. He was close to the bottom of the guys' alliance, and now he's closer to top without being at the top. It's a good place to be.

Baylor's a big winner too. She went from the bottom to darn close to the top of the new everyone-but-Dale alliance. The only catch here: Though Josh considers Baylor a top confidant, Baylor doesn't trust Josh at all. And she shouldn't trust Josh. You don't put votes on someone like that without telling them first. She'll slit his throat one day, and he'll never see it coming.

Jaclyn almost blew it at tribal council hinting at the ploy to off Rocker. Rocker was dumb enough to think she was talking about the guys voting out Dale, I guess. What a "big move" getting rid of the 50-year-old.

Speaking of: Dale is still 50. No one needs his glasses to make fire. Dude is in trouble.

Alec is not a real player in this game. Stupid though he seems, though, I think he's actually the smart twin. For whatever that's worth.

BLUE TRIBE

It's a lot harder to get a read on the other tribe, since they've never been to tribal. Still, here goes.

Julie is in a bad position, but slightly less bad now that Rocker's been voted off. She'd have gone home guaranteed had Team Blue went to tribal. But now, the need for revenge is lessened.

No one seems to like Drew, because he's dumb, lazy and not very engaging socially. My guess is that he's the first to go. Which is too bad, I really like the "bumbling idiot" edit he's getting.

Jon lost the flint, but that's old news by now -- no one will vote him out for that 7 days after the fact. He's not in any kind of power position with the tribe, but he does seem very useful in challenges.

I'm starting to like Natalie. She's got a huge mouth that will eventually be her undoing -- or get her to the final three as a goat. Having her sister voted out probably helped her game.

Smart play by Keith in getting Josh to agree to share the clue before the reveal. I hope he finds the immunity idol. He's clearly not fond of Josh as Josh was of him, though. (This seems to be Josh's blindside: He's pretty good at reading peoples' interactions with each other, but pretty terrible at handling and analyzing interactions directly.)

Jeremy's in a good position for now. He's taking the alpha male leadership role, which is dangerous. But so long as his team keeps winning, he should be fine. Not sure why he can't find the idol, though.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There are total parallels, yes. But there really can't help but be. It's like the Amazing Race -- there are different teams all the time, but at the same time, there are only so many types of close relationships two people can have and still be athletic enough to handle what contains key elements of a sports competition.

By the way, who'd have thought Jon would wind up being the smart guy over on team blue? He had a decent enough plan -- take out Julie based on who had loved ones left. But the other guys (save for Reed) were too busy shooting their pistols in the air to come together and the female minority ruled. Drew was spectacularly idiotic.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm interested to see if Jeremy is going to be able to pull this off. He has been a fantastic player in my eyes so far. But if Dale is the next boot, and the merge is next, there are going to be 4 pairs with no bad blood between them and just 4 - Jeremy, Natalie, Alec and Julie - singles. The singles have all been given more complex and interesting edits than the pairs, which makes me think that the singles are somehow going to turn the tables, or at least put up a good fight.

Right now, the real power seems to continue to lay with the old Coyopa, since they have majorities on both sides. There are 3 in the core Coyopa alliance: Josh, Alec and Wes. Baylor and Jacq make 4 and 5. Jon, Missy and Reed are currently roped in as a marriage-of-convenience 6 through 8, Keith is a marriage-of-convenience number 9 so long as he makes it to the merge.

Jeremy, Natalie and Julie are in a really tough spot. They already burned their bridge with Jon in that disastrous 5-4 tribal split, who's now found a new alliance (with his girlfriend, her ally, and her ally's mother, but whatever). Reed wasn't with them to begin with, so he's not going to be with them now with a better option on the table. They might be able to pull in Dale, but his vote wouldn't matter against a block of 9. And he's likely to get bounced before the merge anyway.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

With yet another tribal under our belt:

It looks like Missy is in control of the Missy/Baylor couple, and I wouldn't be surprised if they continued to work with Jon and Jacq after the merge. I also think Natalie scored some major points with Missy by going with Baylor to Exile. They could very much work together as a 7. In fact, it's in Jon and Jacq's and Missy and Baylor's best interest -- their 4 powers the 7, and their 7 powers the 12.

Josh and Reed are huge targets after winning again twice (when it'd have probably been best to lose, but that's none of my business). I think Reed may get bounced first at the merge.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I hope everyone enjoyed the 'real' merge episode, now we have to endure 3-4 weeks of Pagonging the frat-bro alliance before some excitement can happen.

Jeremy is almost too obvious a winner, but I guess Tony was too.

I think Jacqueline could win this season. She's likable and not the primary target of her pair.

Missy and Bay are good choices to make it all the way to the end. Neither have a shot to win, so everyone will want to take them. They're obvious goats.

Jeremy is still a pretty major target for the remaining players. I could see Missy and Bay voting him out after splitting up John and Jacqueline. He does have a good shot to win, sure, but it's not a lock. He needs to worry when they get down to the 9 and 7.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Bummed that Jeremy had to go, he was my last real horse in the race. I'm surprised people are letting Jon and Jacqueline run things so transparently.

This was a surprising blindside in that the editors had almost no foreshadowing during the episode. Great play by J&J to link with M&B as the other "trusted" couple to pull it off. Because of the editing I can't tell what role Reed played in any of this. Going forward, does this throw Natalie in with K&W?

It was a huge move, but not really a good one this early. Jeremy seemed to be incredibly trustworthy at this point, especially considering he had no where else to go. There are now nine people, and the "majority" alliance is down to just 4. Natalie is clearly on the warpath ("What the ____ Missy?" -- interesting that Missy took the blame) and was shown in the promos to be digging around for Jon's idol. Are they really going to replace her with Alec? (It's not a bad idea, Alec is dumb as dirt.)

I now think Jacqueline is the most likely person to win the season. Reed is now a possibility too, so long as he knows that the 4 must be broken up now, before they get back into the majority. He'd get Josh and Jeremy's vote for the $1,000,000 for sure.

Edit: Just noticed that Reed sided with the "majority" with his vote, so apparently his throwing Keith under the bus opened up a door. If he's truly "in," then he's going to be the swing vote between Missy & Bay and J&J. Also, apparently Natalie isn't looking for Jon's idol, she's looking for her own idol based off of an Exile Isle clue that Jeremy shared with her.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Not to mention that in getting rid of Jeremy as the number one biggest target in the game, Jon now becomes the number one biggest target in the game in his place.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

"stick to the plan"

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This current season is just angering, everyone I like keeps going home. Now, I really need Shirin or Jenn to win.

This season has been fantastic so far. I don't want everyone to win, but I really like a large number of the characters. Rodney, for instance, is the exact type of alpha male who historically has no chance of winning the game, but he's playing surprisingly well (social game, especially, which is counter intuitive) and probably has the best plan to get to the final four. I loved his dumb bromance with Joaquin, and I love that he's still bitter about him going home. He misses his Sunday Funday bro. It's cute.

Joe is obviously going to get his head cut off at the first opportunity. It's too bad, I like Joe. But that's how Survivor works. If you aren't able to hold back a little, you're going to get wrecked.

I like Jenn, she's a lot of fun, not taking things too seriously, and she's really enjoying her experience. Plus, you have to love anyone who's smart enough to play an idol at the right time. It's going to be tough for her to win, especially if Joe keeps winning immunity.

I really like Shirin. I didn't expect that, since I found her annoying throughout most of the game. But there's something I respect about the way she played -- intentionally taking the short end of the stick just to side with people she actually likes and has something in common with. (It makes sense that a Yahoo Exec would be "no collar.") I also loved that she was the only one who said what I was screaming at the TV -- Merica is a horrible tribe name. Plus, she's clearly at the bottom of the minority alliance, which actually works in her favor. I could easily see her getting picked up as a fifth by Rodney's four if they get too anxious to make a move at 7.

I like Tyler. He's playing a smart game, and he's set up really well to win. Carolyn is super smart too, but I don't really find her likable. They make a really great pair.

I feel sorry for Will. He'll go far by virtue of playing a weak game.

I want Dan to burn in a fire. He's such a nasty, awful, misogynistic human being. I agree with the girls -- I'd rather leave my kids with Rodney than with Dan. "I'm just trying to be nice, I really am." F you, Dan. F you.

Sierra flirts with flipping in every episode but she never does -- hardly the type of thing that endears you to a jury. It's increasingly looking like she's unwilling to make moves. She'll get torn apart at a final tribal for limping to the end without a strategy.

Anyone else excited for Blue Collar/White Collar/No Collar?

The twist doesn't mean much for me as much as there being three tribes, that is always a sign that it will be a good season. Philippines, Cagayan, being good examples.

Agreed, the three tribe format works incredibly well. It adds a lot more unpredictability to the game post-merge.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's so hard to know where this show is going because the editing is all over the place this season. Like last episode I was convinced there was an all girls alliance but then no Sierra flips again. And, like Shirin appears to be on the bottom but she takes up about half the confessionals suggesting that she is an important player. Then there's Tyler and Carolyn who are so ing boring yet they really have all the power but get barely any screen time.

Jeff claimed this is a great season but I just don't see it yet because the people doing are really unlikeable   ... I mean Dan and Rodney are hardcore misogynists, Mike is just annoying, Tyler/Carolyn are really boring and like is Will even on this show? I'm hoping something changes, regardless I just want Shirin to win - she is awesome and one of the most likeable players on the show.

Unlikable people are a big part of Survivor. I think Rodney is a huge tool, but he's crazy entertaining to watch because he's so aggressively unpredictable.

I think they're doing a terrific job with editing, and they're getting way better with misdirects. All the signs pointed to Dan being in trouble last episode except for one -- the girls needed 6 votes and they clearly only had 5. Everyone is too pre-occupied with Joe to make any kind of move except to make him weaker where possible.

(FWIW, I think Mike needs to figure out -- and quick -- that his best chance for staying in the game long-term is to keep Joe around as long as possible.)

Shirin is in an interesting place. She's playing a really good weak game. Aside from her personality, there's really no reason for people to get rid of her when more significant minority targets remain in the game (Joe, Jenn). Her being on a different side as the rest of the White Collars actually does them all a favor at this point in the game.

Shirin really needs to find a way to make up with Carolyn, though. I know that she doesn't want her to eat pizza or have cool adventures, but joining back up with the 2 WCs after the NCs get voted out is probably her best move.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm feeling Shirin is in a really good spot atm? Like the little clip included of her stratergising and suggesting that Carolyn is a huge threat works to her advantage.

The only problem is that Shirin seems to be disliked by a majority of the tribe to the point where she won't get their jury votes.