States that are NOT up for grabs in '08, under any circumstances.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Let me make the edits where I feel necessary, and then follow up with a bit of explanation:

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First, on the Democratic state side, I feel you can't absolutely rule out New York, if only because Rudy has the "home state advantage" there.  Against Clinton, sure, New York is Safe D, but if Obama, Edwards, or Richardson get the nod, a stronger-than-expected performance in NYC (at least the Staten Island and Queens parts) could put a couple beads of sweat on Democrats' faces.

Connecticut—yeah, this is equatable to New Jersey.  It's a state that prefers moderates (and will easily elect liberals, but not conservatives), and there are a lot of NYC commuters along the southern coast.

Delaware is another one of those states where the GOP isn't quite dead.  I don't expect Rudy to carry it, but I don't know how much of a lock it is.  It wasn't a Dem romp in 2004 on the Presidential or Gubernatorial side.

My only addition is Illinois—it's just too far gone for the GOP to win, even in the most optimistic of national scenarios.  To carry it, Rudy would need to win nationally by—what?—ten points?

On the Safe GOP side, I've crossed out South Dakota, Kansas, and the not-so-deep South.  SD is a plains state that is winnable in a Dem landslide (which I cannot rule out for 2008).  Kansas is looking more fertile to Democrats—still a massive longshot—but it could still slip into the Democratic column in a perfect storm.  As for the not-so-deep-South, I mean...Clinton did win Georgia in 1992, so...I can't 100% rule it out.  A hard time winning it again to say the least, of course, but not impossible.

ON EDIT: Added Oklahoma to my safe GOP list.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Every state is up for grabs, at least until they pick the nominees.

Just my humble opinion.

I tend to agree.  Of course it would take a Republican denouncing Mormons to lose Utah and a Democrat making a bluntly racist statement to lose Washington DC.

Washington DC is not a state. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

MS would go Democratic before GA or SC.

no

^^^^

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Wow, I'm suprised only one person has Oklahoma safe GOP.  I agree that Oklahoma is 96% sure of going Republican.  The only thing that will shake her up would be a Richardson vs. Romney matchup.  Oklahoma is 100% Hillary proof, 100% Obama proof, about 90% Edwards proof, and about 50% Richardson proof.  I still don't see it as big a win as 2004.  I see a 55-44 victory for the GOP with Oklahoma City being a city that possibly goes ever-so-slightly blue.  We'll wait and see.

Thanks for pointing out my inadvertant oversight.  I fully believe OK is safe for the GOP in 2008 no matter what.