Name a candidate that’s economically populist enough to win KY-Gov for Dems

[lfromnj]

Grays loss is pretty impressive considering he was a gay man in kentucky.

[lfromnj]

#Populist Beshear will win dozens of rural Appalachian counties again if nominee!

Ice what's your bet on elliot? I'm going Tilt r unless Adkins is the nominee then I think its lean d.
Previously I would have said likely but the manchin btfo in the coal counties made me change my mind.

[lfromnj]

#Populist Beshear will win dozens of rural Appalachian counties again if nominee!

Ice what's your bet on elliot? I'm going Tilt r unless Adkins is the nominee then I think its lean d.
Previously I would have said likely but the manchin btfo in the coal counties made me change my mind.

My "bold" prediction is that Beshear wins only three counties: Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin. Maybe if he's lucky he'll win them by a large enough margin to not get BTFO statewide too badly, but I wouldn't count on it. Atlas will be dismayed because clearly he was supposed to sweep Appalachia just like Appalachian Heroes Mark Warner, Ted Strickland, Jack Conway, Richard Ojeda, Phil Bredesen, Amy McGrath, Alison Lundergan Grimes, Sherrod Brown, Joe Manchin, etc. #ILearnedNothingFrom2016Or2018

Also it will be interesting to see Campbell county. Its very unlikely he wins it of course but the margins should be there be interesting. I could see him getting something like 43% there.

Also LOL that ojeda btfo. the most economically populist candidate possible still loses by more than Hillary's campaign manager solely because she lives in a less trumpy and more urban district LMAO.

[lfromnj]

Elliot County voted against McConnell in 2014

Orange county voted against Jerry Brown in 2014

[lfromnj]

Elliot County voted against McConnell in 2014

Orange county voted against Jerry Brown in 2014

The Difference was 2014 was a GOP wave.

if you want play that game about wave years Joe Manchin won Logan by 40 points in 2010.

[lfromnj]

Elliot County voted against McConnell in 2014

Orange county voted against Jerry Brown in 2014

The Difference was 2014 was a GOP wave.

if you want play that game about wave years Joe Manchin won Logan by 40 points in 2010.

How did Elliot vote this year

https://elect.ky.gov/results/2010-2019/Documents/2018GeneralElectionCertified.pdf

Hal rogers won elliot for the first time ever by  150 votes
LOL
Yeah im Moving elliot to Likely R for the KY gov

[lfromnj]

Democrats probably lose Elliott even if they win the governorship. Their winning coalition counts on Cincinnati suburbs much more than #populists. I'll post a map later.

yeah I think there is a very small chance but it now has to focus on getting those Cinci suburbs. Anyway Andy Barr would have been DOA in 2018 if Matt Bevin was on the ballot.

[lfromnj]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

Interesting maps, but considering Amy McGrath couldn't even carry KY-06 in a D+9 environment, I don't see how Beshear even wins it by 10, let alone 20.

eh I can see it.
Look at Ok 5th and Kendra Horns and Edmonsons margins
I think Matt bevin is pretty weak but this race is Safe R still
However the less rural hick counties like Ky 6th which has a decent chance to trend D in 2020 might against him by large margins.

[lfromnj]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

Interesting map, but considering Amy McGrath couldn't even carry KY-06 in a D+9 environment, I don't see how Beshear even wins it by 10, let alone 20.

It's tough to see it going Democratic by 20, yeah. However, I'd say that Democrats need to win it by that much to win Kentucky.

Indeed, which is why I see it as totally unwinnable. Outperforming Conway and keeping it within single digits I could see if everything goes right for Beshear, but winning just seems to be a bridge too far.

I think he does almost hit is ky 06 and the 3rd margins along with some decent margins in the 4th too but the problem is the other 3 districts are just hicks and they will swing even harder R.